Lighting the Path: What IPCC energy pathways tell us about Paris-aligned policies and investments

This report outlines key implications for governments and investors aiming to align their policies and investments with the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement, based on different energy pathways published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Sixth Assessment Report, published in April 2022.This report shows that significant structural changes are required in the energy sector to align with pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C. The pathways consistent with the IPCC's assessment of feasible and sustainable deployment of Carbon Dioxide Removal and Carbon Capture and Storage technologies leave no room for delayed action. The oil and gas phase-out timelines presented in this report constitute the ambition level consistent with the best estimates of the current and future capacity of mitigation technologies. Accordingly, this report presents the key implications for governments and financial institutions aiming to align their policies and investments with feasible 1.5°C pathways. Its recommendations are designed to guide the understanding of the Paris alignment, consistent with the IPCC findings, and should inform plans to strengthen and amplify policy interventions

Existing fossil fuel extraction would warm the world beyond 1.5 °C

The Paris climate goals and the Glasgow Climate Pact require anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to decline to net zero by mid-century. This will require overcoming carbon lock-in throughout the energy system. Previous studies have focused on ‘committed emissions’ from capital investments in energy-consuming infrastructure, or potential (committed and uncommitted) emissions from fossil fuel reserves. Here we make the first bottom-up assessment of committed CO2 emissions from fossil fuel-producing infrastructure, defined as existing and under-construction oil and gas fields and coal mines. We use a commercial model of the world’s 25 000 oil and gas fields and build a new dataset on coal mines in the nine largest coal-producing countries. Our central estimate of committed emissions is 936 Gt CO2, comprising 47% from coal, 35% from oil and 18% from gas. We find that staying within a 1.5 °C carbon budget (50% probability) implies leaving almost 40% of ‘developed reserves’ of fossil fuels unextracted. The finding that developed reserves substantially exceed the 1.5 °C carbon budget is robust to a Monte Carlo analysis of reserves data limitations, carbon budget uncertainties and oil prices. This study contributes to growing scholarship on the relevance of fossil fuel supply to climate mitigation. Going beyond recent warnings by the International Energy Agency, our results suggest that staying below 1.5 °C may require governments and companies not only to cease licensing and development of new fields and mines, but also to prematurely decommission a significant portion of those already developed.Peer Reviewe

Ten new insights in climate science 2023

Non-technical summary. We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability and implications of overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgent need for a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future contribution of natural carbon sinks, (5) intertwinedness of the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. Technical summary. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports provides the scientific foundation for international climate negotiations and constitutes an unmatched resource for researchers. However, the assessment cycles take multiple years. As a contribution to cross- and interdisciplinary understanding of climate change across diverse research communities, we have streamlined an annual process to identify and synthesize significant research advances. We collected input from experts on various fields using an online questionnaire and prioritized a set of 10 key research insights with high policy relevance. This year, we focus on: (1) the looming overshoot of the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) the urgency of fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges to scale-up carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding future natural carbon sinks, (5) the need for joint governance of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) advances in understanding compound events, (7) accelerated mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility amidst climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. We present a succinct account of these insights, reflect on their policy implications, and offer an integrated set of policy-relevant messages. This science synthesis and science communication effort is also the basis for a policy report contributing to elevate climate science every year in time for the United Nations Climate Change Conference. Social media summary. We highlight recent and policy-relevant advances in climate change research – with input from more than 200 experts

Ten New Insights in Climate Science 2023/2024

Non-technical summary: We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability and implications of overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgent need for a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future contribution of natural carbon sinks, (5) intertwinedness of the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. Technical summary The IPCC Assessment Reports offer the scientific foundation for international climate negotiations and constitute an unmatched resource for climate change researchers. However, the assessment cycles take multiple years. As a contribution to cross- and interdisciplinary understanding across diverse climate change research communities, we have streamlined an annual process to identify and synthesise essential research advances. We collected input from experts on different fields using an online questionnaire and prioritised a set of ten key research insights with high policy relevance. This year we focus on: (1) looming overshoot of the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgency of phasing-out fossil fuels, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future of natural carbon sinks, (5) need for join governance of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) advances in the science of compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. We first present a succinct account of these Insights, reflect on their policy implications, and offer an integrated set of policy relevant messages. This science synthesis and science communication effort is also the basis for a report targeted to policymakers as a contribution to elevate climate science every year, in time for the UNFCCC COP. Social media summary We highlight recent and policy-relevant advances in climate change research - with input from more than 200 experts 1.</p

Ten New Insights in Climate Science 2023/2024

Non-technical summary: We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability and implications of overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgent need for a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future contribution of natural carbon sinks, (5) intertwinedness of the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. Technical summary The IPCC Assessment Reports offer the scientific foundation for international climate negotiations and constitute an unmatched resource for climate change researchers. However, the assessment cycles take multiple years. As a contribution to cross- and interdisciplinary understanding across diverse climate change research communities, we have streamlined an annual process to identify and synthesise essential research advances. We collected input from experts on different fields using an online questionnaire and prioritised a set of ten key research insights with high policy relevance. This year we focus on: (1) looming overshoot of the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgency of phasing-out fossil fuels, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future of natural carbon sinks, (5) need for join governance of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) advances in the science of compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. We first present a succinct account of these Insights, reflect on their policy implications, and offer an integrated set of policy relevant messages. This science synthesis and science communication effort is also the basis for a report targeted to policymakers as a contribution to elevate climate science every year, in time for the UNFCCC COP. Social media summary We highlight recent and policy-relevant advances in climate change research - with input from more than 200 experts 1.</p

Fueling Conflict: The Role of Oil Policy in Violence in Iraq

The fourth of four volumes, this volume covers resource problems in the Middle East. Contributors include: Amita Baviskar, Ana E. Cascao, Ibrahim Elnur, Robert Mabro, Greg Muttitt, MOhamed Suliman, Richard N. Tutwiler.https://fount.aucegypt.edu/faculty_book_chapters/2054/thumbnail.jp

Whose carbon is burnable? Equity considerations in the allocation of a “right to extract”

doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2209-z1501-Feb117–12

Navigating Energy Transitions: Mapping the road to 1.5°C

This report highlights the implications of 1.5°C scenarios for the phase-out of fossil fuels and the scale-up to renewables, barriers to transitions and solutions to such challenges, and tools for governments and financial institutions to navigate the current energy crisis while maintaining climate ambition. It also looks at the implications of the war in Ukraine for energy systems and explores whether Europe can meet its gas demand without the Russian supply