Modeling the Turkish Broad Money Demand

This paper analyzes broad money demand in Turkey between 1987 and 2001, a period characterized by a process of financial sector liberalization, implemented using various structural reforms and deregulations. It presents the historical background and the pace of liberalization, accompanied by a discussion on main economic indicators. It gives a brief summary on theory for the analysis of money demand and constructs an error correction model for M2X using quarterly data, where the long run relationship is established using real income, interest rate on deposits, interest rate on government securities, inflation rate and real exchange rate. The results show that, both exchange rate and inflation rate have substantial impact on the Turkish broad money demand.Money Demand, Financial Liberalization, Cointegration, Error-correction Modeling

Modele dayalı öngörülü ağ baglantılı kontrol sistemi

Ağ bağlantılı kontrol sistemlerinin endüstriyel alandaki ihtiyaçları karşılayan çeşitli avantajları vardır. Uygulamalar karmaşıklaştıkça ağ bağlantılı kontrol sistemlerinin kullanımının kaçınılmaz hale gelmesi beklenmektedir. Ancak haberleşme ağının neden olduğu belirsiz gecikmeler ve veri kayıpları, çevrim dinamiklerini olumsuz etkilemekte ve kararsızlıklara sebep olabilmektedir. Bu çalışmada veri gecikmesi ve kaybı ile algılayıcı gürültüsü gibi ideal olmayan durumlarda da çalışabilen bir ağ bağlantılı kontrol sistem mimarisi tanıtılacaktır. Yapı olarak, kontrol edilen sistemin bir modelinin, kontrolörün de içinde bulundurulması sayesinde haberleşme ağının neden olduğu kayıplar ve gecikmelerin kompanze edilmesi sağlanmaktadır. Model sayesinde, öngörülmüş kontrol çıktıları hesaplanıp haberleşme gerçekleşemediği durumlarda sistemin bunlarla kontrolü sayesinde yüksek derecede veri kayıplarında bile kararsızlıg˘ın önlenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Önerilen yöntemde kontrol edilen sistemin durumu ile kontrolör içindeki modelin durumunun eşleştirilmesi önemli bir problem haline gelmektedir. Bu yapı bilgisayar, kontrol ve haberleşme dallarının özelliklerini kullanarak her birinin eksiğini tamamlamaya yönelik olup, çeşitli kontrol metotlarıyla kullanılmaya açıktır. Önerilen Modele Dayalı Öngörülü¨ Ağ Bağlantılı Kontrol Sistemi (MODOAKOS) benzetim yolu ile bir doğru akım motorunun kontrolüne uygulanmıştır. Normal ağ bağlantılı kontrol sistemin kararlılığını bozucu gecikme ve kayıplar varken bile önerilen sistem altında kontrol uygulandığında kararlı çalışma bozulmamış ancak referans girişine olan cevabın geciktiği gözlenmiştir

Turkiye’de Imalat Sanayindeki Firmalarin Fiyatlama Davranisi

Bu calismada, Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi tarafindan 2005 yili Mayis-Temmuz aylari arasinda ozel imalat sanayinde yer alan 999 firmaya uygulanan ve firmalarin fiyatlama politikalarinin incelendigi “Firmalarin Fiyatlama Davranisi Anketi” projesinin sonuclari degerlendirilmektedir. Elde edilen sonuclara gore, urun fiyatlarinin belirlenmesinde rakip fiyatlari goz onune alarak belirlenen degisken kar marji uygulamasinin oldukca yaygin oldugu gorulmektedir. Bu sonuc, firmalarin fiyat alici olmaktan ziyade, fiyat yapici olduklarini gostermektedir. Imalat sanayinde faaliyet gosteren firmalarin yaklasik yuzde 36,0’inin ana urun fiyatinin bir degiskene endeksli olmasi, endeksleme davranisinin imalat sanayi icindeki onemini korudugunu gostermektedir. Firmalarin fiyatlarini gozden gecirirken normal zamanlarda agirlikli olarak zamana bagli bir politika takip ettikleri ve zaman araligi olarak ise aylik gozden gecirmelerin one ciktigi gorulmektedir. Bu sonuca, firmalarin maliyet veya talepteki soklara cevap vermeleri icin gecmesi gereken sure olarak bir aylik bir sureyi belirtmeleri de eklenince, fiyatlari degistirmede aylik periyotlarla hareket etmenin oldukca yaygin oldugu ortaya cikmaktadir. Maliyet ve talep soklarinin fiyatlar uzerindeki etkileri asimetrik bir yapi gostermektedir. Maliyet degisimleri fiyatlari dusurmeye kiyasla artirmada daha etkilidir. Talepte ise tersi bir durum soz konusudur; yani firmalar talepteki dususlere, artislara kiyasla daha duyarli davranmaktadirlar. Hem gozden gecirme sikliginin yuksek olmasi hem de ankette sinanan katilik teorilerine atfedilen onem duzeylerinin cok yuksek olmamasi nominal katiliklarin belirgin olmadigina isaret etmektedir. Boyle bir sonucun ortaya cikmasi, enflasyonist bir ortamda karsilasilan soklar sonrasi fiyatlari degistirmenin getirisinin, degistirmemenin saglayacagi faydaya kiyasla daha fazla olmasiyla aciklanabilir.Fiyatlama Davranisi, Fiyat Katiligi, Endeksleme, Fiyatlama Anketi

Intelligent Systems and Applications in Engineering Advanced Technology and Science

Permanentmagnet synchronous motors have been preferred in industrial fields for a few decades. It is reason for that the permanent magnet synchronous motors have high torque/volume ratio, large flux weakening region, and especially highly efficient. The main factor to obtain these advantages is the selection of suitable geometric parameters in their design optimizations. As a design optimizationthis study investigates external rotor permanent magnet synchronous motor with fractional slot windings. Pre-analytical designs and subsequently design optimizations by genetic algorithm and differential evolution algorithm have been studied. Thebetter resultsobtained were tested by the finite element method.Thus, so much more compact and efficient motor model was to be achieved based on the design geometries. The results are very reasonable and usefu

TEST EQUATING STUDY CONCERNING TO ALES (ACADEMIC PERSONNEL AND POSTGRADUATE EDUCATION ENTRANCE EXAM) SCORES OBTAINED AT DIFFERENT TIMES IN A YEAR

The purpose of this to equate ALES (Academic Personnel and Postgraduate Education Entrance Exam) scores with linear equating and equipercentile equating methods in the periods of 2011 spring and autumn conducted by SPSS, to determine the most suitable one of these two methods for research and to propose the most suitable one thanks to the findings in case of a similar study. The study population was 21860 people participating in ALES made in the periods of both 2011 spring and 2011 autumn. The sample of the study was 2186 individuals, respectively selected %10 of population randomly via computer. In the study, the internal consistency was calculated without eliminating items by using KR-21 formula because data were raw scores. Analyzes were carried out because of the fact that internal consistencies were high without eliminating agents of heights. Linear and equipercentile methods applied separately to the raw scores of sizes. Error quantities were measured by WMSE formula to determine which equating method was more appropriate for research and when the data of research findings were analyzed it was found that WMSE coefficient of equipercentile method was lower. As a result of this study equipercentile equating was found more appropriate on the equating study concerning to the field of quantitative, verbal, equiponderant.  Article visualizations

Leader survivability in non-democracies: the role of blame shifting

This paper presents an alternative explanation for the possible incentives of the incumbents in authoritarian regimes to hold elections by utilizing a formal model that is derived to simulate the strategic interaction between the incumbent and the people. Equilibria of themodels show us that, there exists feasible circumstances under which the incumbent would prefer to allow elections to be hold with the purpose of the selection of an officer that the incumbentmay later on benefit from by shifting the blame of an external crisis, hence weaken the risk of a regime breakdown

Les migrations irrégulières en Turquie

Pays d'immigration avant de devenir pays d'émigration, la Turquie est aujourd'hui un important pays de transit des migrations irrégulières vers l'Europe occidentale. Situé à la charnière de plusieurs ensembles géopolitiques et culturels (Europe orientale, Moyen-Orient et pays issus de la dislocation de l'URSS), le pays est confronté à un problème qui, sans être véritablement nouveau, prend une ampleur inconnue jusqu'alors. Face aux dérèglements intervenus dans les équilibres géostratégiques (du fait de la disparition de l'URSS), aux conflits régionaux chroniques et récents, Palestine, Kurdistan(s), Iran-Irak, Afghanistan, ex- Yougoslavie, Caucase, à la situation de guerre qui a, par deux fois, touché l'Irak voisin, aux situations de détresse économique que connaît l'Afrique orientale, mais aussi du fait des pressions internationales, particulièrement de celles de l'Union européenne et de l'espace Schengen, la Turquie candidate à l'UE fournit de gros efforts pour maîtriser les flux migratoires.  L'article fait le point sur une situation peu connue en Europe, utilisant en particulier les statistiques publiées par le ministère de l'Intérieur. Il présente l'état des lieux d'une question qui commence à faire l'objet d'études plus précises en Turquie, de la part de sociologues, politologues, mais aussi géographes. Question qui fait également de plus en plus l'objet de reportages dans les média, en raison de multiples incidents entraînant souvent la mort de migrants sur les côtes turques.Unauthorised Migrations in Turkey. A country of immigration before becoming a country of emigration, today's Turkey is an important country of transit for illegal migrations toward Western Europe. Situated at the junction of several geopolitical and cultural ensembles (Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and countries resulting from the break-up of the Soviet Union), the country is confronted with a problem, which, without being new, has taken on a scope heretofore unknown. Faced with the upheaval in the geo-strategic balance (due to the dissolving of the USSR), the recent chronic regional conflicts in Palestine, Kurdistan, Iran-Iraq, Afghanistan, ex-Yugoslavia, Caucasus, the wars in neighbouring Iraq on two occasions, the economic distress in East Africa and international pressure, particularly on behalf of the European Union and the Schengen Agreement, Turkey as a candidate to the EU has made significant efforts in managing migratory flows. This article pinpoints a situation that is little known in Europe, using in particular statistics published by the Ministry of the Interior. It takes stock of a question that is becoming the subject of more precise study in Turkey, by sociologists, political scientists and also geographers. It is also becoming a more frequent subject of news reports as a result of multiple incidents often ending in the death of migrants off Turkish coasts.Las migraciones irregulares en Turquía. País de inmigración antes de convertirse en país de emigración, Turquía se ha convertido hoy en día en un país de tránsito importante de las corrientes migratorias irregulares que se dirigen a Europa occidental. Situada en el punto de unión entre varios espacios geopolíticos y culturales (Europa oriental, Oriente Medio y países de la ex-Unión Soviética), Turquía se enfrenta a un problema que, sin ser verdaderamente nuevo, alcanza una dimensión desconocida hasta ahora. Ante la alteración de los equilibrios geoestratégicos debidos a la desaparición de la URSS, ante los conflictos regionales crónicos y recientes (Palestina, Kurdistán, Irán-Irak, Afganistán, ex-Yugoslavia, Cáucaso, la reciente guerra en Irak), ante las dificultades económicas de Àfrica oriental y ante las presiones de la Unión Europea y en particular del espacio Schengen, Turquía realiza importantes esfuerzos con el objetivo de controlar los flujos migratorios. Este artículo analiza una situación poco conocida en Europa, utilizando en particular estadísticas publicadas por el Ministerio del Interior turco. Se trata de una cuestión que comienza a ser el objeto de estudios más precisos en Turquía por parte de sociólogos, politólogos y geógrafos. Debido a numerosos  incidentes habiendo desembocado a menudo en la muerte de inmigrantes ante las costas turcas, esta problemática constituye, cada vez con más frecuencia, el tema de reportajes realizados por los medios de comunicación

Essays on the theory of collective action

Defence date: 07 July 2023Examining Board: Prof. David Levine (supervisor); Prof. Andrea Mattozzi (co-supervisor); Prof. Michalis Drouvelis (University of Birmingham); Prof. Ran Spiegler (UCL and Tel Aviv University)This thesis is composed of three essays on the theory of collective action in various economic settings. These essays conduct positive analyses of the factors behind successful provision of a public good, with particular focus on uncertainty and social learning. The first chapter considers the formation of a grassroots social movement and investigates the factors that determine whether the movement reaches the necessary size to achieve its common goal. The key aspect of the model is that while the number of active participants it takes for the movement to succeed is initially unknown, it becomes clearer as the movement keeps growing. I find that small changes in the environment, even seemingly detrimental ones, can trigger sudden and drastic jumps in the size of the movement. In particular, an increase in the personal cost of participation can lead to a greater number of participants. The second chapter considers a duopoly competition model where demand is affected by past prices. Consumers are willing to buy more of a good at a given price if that price is the result of a discount, and less if it is higher than past prices. This behaviour by the consumers leads to overpricing. Furthermore, if the prices become too high, sudden and very large discounts are observed. In the final chapter, I consider a dynamic game of volunteer’s dilemma: A public good which is enjoyed by everyone in a group is produced only if one of its members bears the cost of producing it. The value of the public good is uncertain and all members receive private signals about it. Members infer others’ signals by observing their actions. The focus of the analysis is the effect of group size on the provision probability of the public good. I find that this effect is not monotonic: The provision probability makes a discrete jump when population size reaches a threshold. Above this threshold, provision probability decreases with population. This suggests an optimal population size for maximizing provision.-- 1. Leading by Example Among Equals -- 2. Tacit Collusion and Dynamic Reference Prices -- 3. Volunteer’s Dilemma with Social Learning -- A. Appendix to Chapter 1 -- B. Appendix to Chapter 2 -- C. Appendix to Chapter

Stability and implementation of model based predictive networked control system

Digital control systems that have computer nodes which communicate over a data loss and random delay prone common network are called Networked Control System (NCS). In a typical NCS, the sensor, controller and the actuator nodes reside in different computers and communicate with each other over a network. Random delays and data loss of the communication network can endanger the stability of the NCS and retransmission of data is not feasible in control applications since it adds delay to the system. The aim of this thesis is to verify that the distributed NCS method called Model Based Predictive Networked Control System (MBPNCS) can be implemented using an observer and that it can control an open loop unstable plant. MBPNCS compensates for missed and late data by implementing an intelligent predictive control scheme based on a model of the plant. MBPNCS does not use retransmission and does not guarantee timely delivery of data packets to each computer node since this solution is not feasible on every control application and every communication medium. Instead, MBPNCS offers a control solution that can work under random network delay and data loss by the use of a predictive architecture that predicts plant state estimates and respective control signals from actual plant states. In this thesis, MBPNCS is described along with an introduction to a theoretical stability criterion. This is followed by an implementation of MBPNCS with two different plants. First, MBPNCS is implemented with an observer based DC motor plant to demonstrate the system’s efficiency with an observer. Next, MBPNCS is implemented with an inverted pendulum to demonstrate the system’s efficiency with an open loop unstable plant. Finally, two separate MBPNCS’s are implemented over a common network to demonstrate the systems efficiency and feasibility in industrial applications. The results show that considerable improvement over performance is achieved with respect to an event based networked control system