Heat in Germany: Health risks and preventive measures

BACKGROUND: Climate change has already led to a significant temperature increase in Germany. The average temperature in the past decade was approximately 2°C above the pre-industrial level and eight of the ten hottest summers since the beginning of systematic weather records in 1881 were recorded in the last 30 years. METHODS: Based on a selective literature search and authors' own results, the article summarises the current state of knowledge on heat and its health impacts for Germany, addresses adaptation measures, and gives an outlook on implementation and research questions. RESULTS: Heat can aggravate pre-existing conditions such as diseases of the cardiovascular system, the respiratory tract, or the kidneys and trigger potentially harmful side effects for numerous medications. A significant increase in mortality is regularly observed during heat events. Previous approaches to mitigate the health impact of high temperatures include, for example, the heat alerts of the German Meteorological Service and recommendations for the preparation of heat-health action plans. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence on health impacts of heat and awareness of the need for heat-related health protection have grown in recent years, but there is still a need for further action and research

The Response of the Ozone Layer to Quadrupled CO₂ Concentrations

An accurate quantification of the stratospheric ozone feedback in climate change simulations requires knowledge of the ozone response to increased greenhouse gases. Here, an analysis is presented of the ozone layer response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 concentrations in four chemistry–climate models. The authors show that increased CO2 levels lead to a decrease in ozone concentrations in the tropical lower stratosphere, and an increase over the high latitudes and throughout the upper stratosphere. This pattern is robust across all models examined here, although important intermodel differences in the magnitude of the response are found. As a result of the cancellation between the upper- and lower-stratospheric ozone, the total column ozone response in the tropics is small, and appears to be model dependent. A substantial portion of the spread in the tropical column ozone is tied to intermodel spread in upwelling. The high-latitude ozone response is strongly seasonally dependent, and shows increases peaking in late winter and spring of each hemisphere, with prominent longitudinal asymmetries. The range of ozone responses to CO2 reported in this paper has the potential to induce significant radiative and dynamical effects on the simulated climate. Hence, these results highlight the need of using an ozone dataset consistent with CO2 forcing in models involved in climate sensitivity studies

Stratospheric age of air variations between 1600 and 2100

The current understanding of preindustrial stratospheric age of air (AoA), its variability, and the potential natural forcing imprint on AoA is very limited. Here we assess the influence of natural and anthropogenic forcings on AoA using ensemble simulations for the period 1600 to 2100 and sensitivity simulations for different forcings. The results show that from 1900 to 2100, CO₂ and ozone-depleting substances are the dominant drivers of AoA variability. With respect to natural forcings, volcanic eruptions cause the largest AoA variations on time scales of several years, reducing the age in the middle and upper stratosphere and increasing the age below. The effect of the solar forcing on AoA is small and dominated by multidecadal total solar irradiance variations, which correlate negatively with AoA. Additionally, a very weak positive relationship driven by ultraviolett variations is found, which is dominant for the 11 year cycle of solar variability

Forcing of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics during the Dalton Minimum

The response of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics to volcanic eruptions and to a decrease in solar activity during the Dalton Minimum is investigated with the fully coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry general circulation model SOCOL-MPIOM (modeling tools for studies of SOlar Climate Ozone Links-Max Planck Institute Ocean Model) covering the time period 1780 to 1840 AD. We carried out several sensitivity ensemble experiments to separate the effects of (i) reduced solar ultra-violet (UV) irradiance, (ii) reduced solar visible and near infrared irradiance, (iii) enhanced galactic cosmic ray intensity as well as less intensive solar energetic proton events and auroral electron precipitation, and (iv) volcanic aerosols. The introduced changes of UV irradiance and volcanic aerosols significantly influence stratospheric dynamics in the early 19th century, whereas changes in the visible part of the spectrum and energetic particles have smaller effects. A reduction of UV irradiance by 15%, which represents the presently discussed highest estimate of UV irradiance change caused by solar activity changes, causes global ozone decrease below the stratopause reaching as much as 8% in the midlatitudes at 5 hPa and a significant stratospheric cooling of up to 2°C in the mid-stratosphere and to 6°C in the lower mesosphere. Changes in energetic particle precipitation lead only to minor changes in the yearly averaged temperature fields in the stratosphere. Volcanic aerosols heat the tropical lower stratosphere, allowing more water vapour to enter the tropical stratosphere, which, via HOx reactions, decreases upper stratospheric and mesospheric ozone by roughly 4%. Conversely, heterogeneous chemistry on aerosols reduces stratospheric NOx, leading to a 12% ozone increase in the tropics, whereas a decrease in ozone of up to 5% is found over Antarctica in boreal winter. The linear superposition of the different contributions is not equivalent to the response obtained in a simulation when all forcing factors are applied during the Dalton Minimum (DM) – this effect is especially well visible for NOx/NOy. Thus, this study also shows the non-linear behaviour of the coupled chemistry-climate system. Finally, we conclude that especially UV and volcanic eruptions dominate the changes in the ozone, temperature and dynamics while the NOx field is dominated by the energetic particle precipitation. Visible radiation changes have only very minor effects on both stratospheric dynamics and chemistry

Intermediated vs. Direct Sales and a No-Discrimination Rule

When sellers join a platform to sell their products, the platform operator may restrict their strategic decisions. In fact, several platform operators impose most-favored treatment or no-discrimination rules (NDRs), asking sellers not to offer better sales conditions elsewhere. In this paper, I analyze a model that allows for an endogenous split-up of consumers between sales channels. Competing sellers might set different prices across channels, depending on the platform tariff and presence of aNDR. I find that the platform operator imposes a NDR if he faces high transaction costs, if seller competition is weak, and if the initial distribution of consumers on channels is strongly skewed. Prohibiting NDRs can have both positive and negative effects on welfare

Application and comparison of UTCI and pet in temperate climate conditions

The assessment of the thermal bioclimate is based on the human energy balance and derived indices such as Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) or Universal Thermal Climate index (UTCI). These two indices were compared over a period of ten year based on hourly data in a middle European city with a temperate climate. The analysis performed shows that the differences obtained result from the different thermophysiological settings of clothing insulation. For conditions with extremely high vapour pressure values, UTCI yields higher values than PET, which could describe the thermophysiological stress more appropriately

The role of cold stress in predicting extra cardiovascular and respiratory admissions

Although several studies have examined effects of air temperature and/or other meteorological variables separately on disease rates, the relationship of meteorological variables and human disease is, in fact, rather complex in the “real-world” [1,2] including the number of potential variables to be considered and their weighting. In other words, 1 °C of air temperature difference in a warm climate may not necessarily mean the same in a cold climate across regions on Earth [3,4]. Why some seasonality was observed in certain regions at certain times only is likely due in part to the imprecise weather estimation from mean, maximum, or minimum air temperature or the definition of study catchments or time period to be included