Lending to European Households and Non-Financial Corporations: Growth and Trends Key findings from the ECRI Statistical Package 2019. ECRI Statistics, October 2019

The ECRI Statistical Package 2019 provides data on outstanding credit granted by monetary-financial institutions (MFIs) to households and non-financial corporations (NFCs) for the period from 1995 to 2018. Credit volumes and annual growth rates are broken down by sector and credit type to enable detailed insights into credit market developments over time and across countries. It comprises 45 countries including the EU Member States, EU candidate and EFTA countries as well as the US, Canada, Japan, Australia, Russia, Mexico and Saudi Arabia

Two Dimensions of Combating Over-Indebtedness: Consumer protection and financial stability. ECRI Research Report No. 18, 28 October 2016

The expansion of credit markets has fostered economic growth across the European Union, but it has also produced a sharp increase in the average level of household indebtedness. As a consequence of the financial crisis, the drop in households’ disposable income has undermined the ability of many EU households to honour their financial commitments. Against this background, this paper investigates the complexity of indebtedness and draws a distinction between its legal and economic dimensions in order to better understand the phenomenon. Despite efforts made by the European Commission, we found that the definition of indebtedness and over-indebtedness still lacks precision. Mirroring the interventions of national legislators in terms of consumer protection, over-indebtedness in the EU tends to be narrowly defined in terms of its relationship with insolvency. Therefore, further efforts need to be taken in designing the necessary measures to alleviate and prevent over-indebtedness. Accordingly, this study focuses on the role of financial education, analyses the impact of the relevant EU directives, collects important evidence in support of harmonising debt-advice services and explores the path towards a common methodology of early detection of vulnerable households

Beyond public debt. The Hidden Rapid Erosion of EU Government Balance Sheets is a Financial Threat to Society How to stop it. CEPS Commentary, March 2019

The EU is built on the promise of peace, economic prosperity and–since the Maastricht Treaty–also fiscal responsibility. The absence in several member states of a culture promoting responsible public financial management, however, has led to excessive public indebtedness, which negatively affects today’s economy and weighs heavily on the shoulders of future generations. Against this background, this paper argues that the introduction of modern Public Financial Management (PFM) systems–which not only take into account public debt but also non-debt liabilities and non-financial assets–can contribute to coupling economic growth with responsible fiscal policy. The tools exist and can provide the essential elements for stability and growth for member states and the EU as a whole. Changing the public management culture and reforming government accounts to reflect economic reality are essential steps Europe must take before it can reap the full benefits, and thereby create the necessary fiscal space and deliver better services to European citizens

Clustering and hierarchy of financial markets data: advantages of the DBHT

We present a set of analyses aiming at quantifying the amount of information filtered by di↵erent hierarchical clustering methods on correlations between stock returns. In particular we apply, for the first time to financial data, a novel hierarchical clustering approach, the Directed Bubble Hierarchical Tree (DBHT), and we compare it with other methods including the Linkage and k-medoids. In particular by taking the industrial sector classification of stocks as a benchmark partition we evaluate how the di↵erent methods retrieve this classification. The results show that the Directed Bubble Hierarchical Tree outperforms the other methods, being able to retrieve more information with fewer clusters. Moreover, we show that the economic information is hidden at di↵erent levels of the hierarchical structures depending on the clustering method. The dynamical analysis also reveals that the di↵erent methods show di↵erent degrees of sensitivity to financial events, like crises. These results can be of interest for all the applications of clustering methods to portfolio optimization and risk hedging

The Future of EU ATM Markets. Impacts of digitalisation and pricing policies on business models. CEPS Research Report, October 2018

ATMs constitute a critical component in today’s infrastructure for facilitating cash payments. However, ongoing digitalisation (cashless payments, e-commerce and online banking) is challenging the role of ATMs and putting pressure on the cash infrastructure in the EU. The shift from cash to cashless payments reduces the need for cash withdrawals and the rise of online banking challenges the bank branch as the traditionally most prevalent location for ATMs. Moreover, the introduction of pricing policies might also change the dynamics in EU ATM markets. Transparency and price caps on the so-called dynamic currency conversion (DCC) as well as potential reductions in interchange fees will put pressure on the revenues of certain ATMs. Against this background, this report assesses the sensitivity of EU ATM markets to ongoing digitalisation and pricing policies. The impact of these developments is assessed across business models in Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Poland, Portugal, Spain and Sweden, which are representative of the ATM markets in all EU member states. Location characteristics are determined and costs and revenues estimated for the 146,821 ATM locations across these eight EU member states in mid-2018

Ambiente e salute a Gela: stato delle conoscenze e prospettive di studio

The high environmental risk area of Gela, Niscemi and Butera includes the Gela Reclamation Site of National Interest (Gela RSNI). If compared to the other sites of national interest, the Gela RSNI is a case in which many important data on environmental matrices and health outcome are available. However these data do not cover all matrices nor the entire risk area, but are mainly limited to the industrial site. These data are also underutilised, almost never integrated, and a clear example of the lacking of coordination and connection between environment and health data collection and management. In Gela there is an important industrial site whose activities have caused over the years a progressive contamination of several environmental matrices, and extremely high levels of chemical toxic, persistent and bio-accumulative pollutants have been found. In this same area, several epidemiological population health studies have been carried out showing a presence of health outcomes higher than in neighbouring areas and in regional data. Most environmental and health data cannot be compared since their respective survey and monitoring systems are planned upon specific regulations having different goals. A local system to assess the relation between environmental pollution and population health is therefore urgently needed to provide risk managers with ad-hoc tools to improve environmental protection and prevent further risks for Gela\u27s population. In this framework, a multidisciplinary working group has been established to study present pollution-exposure-effect data, transform them into a knowledge system, and complete present knowledge on the cycle of pollutants, from migration in the environment to health impact. Workshops were organised in October 2007 and March 2008 in Rome, and in June 2008 in Gela.L\u27area ad alto rischio di crisi ambientale di Gela, Niscemi e Butera include il Sito di Interesse Nazionale per la bonifica di Gela, SIN. A confronto con gli altri, il SIN di Gela ? caratterizzato da ampia disponibilit? di dati di buona qualit? su diverse matrici ambientali e numerosi esiti sanitari. Tuttavia questi dati non coprono tutte le matrici e gli esiti, e sono spesso lacunosi nelle aree esterne al SIN ma interne all\u27area ad alto rischio, che include gli abitati. Inoltre, questi dati sono spesso sottoutilizzati, risulta carente il collegamento tra i due settori ambiente e salute ed un coordinamento organico. Nell\u27area di Gela ? presente un importante polo industriale la cui attivit? ha comportato nel corso degli anni una progressiva contaminazione di diverse matrici ambientali, nelle quali sono stati rilevati livelli estremamente elevati di inquinanti chimici con caratteristiche di tossicit?, persistenza e bioaccumulo. Nella stessa area sono stati effettuati diversi studi epidemiologici sullo stato di salute della popolazione che hanno evidenziato la presenza di patologie in eccesso rispetto alle aree limitrofe e alla regione. La maggior parte dei dati ambientali e sanitari non sono correlabili perch? i sistemi di rilevamento e monitoraggio sono stati pianificati sulla base di normative specifiche con obiettivi differenti. Risulta quindi urgente costruire un sistema locale in grado di valutare l\u27associazione tra l\u27inquinamento ambientale e lo stato di salute della popolazione per poter offrire strumenti mirati ai gestori del rischio per migliorare la protezione ambientale e prevenire ulteriori rischi per la popolazione gelese. In tale contesto, al fine di studiare e sistematizzare le conoscenze attuali sulla concatenazione inquinamento-esposizione-effetto e con l\u27obiettivo di integrare le conoscenze sul ciclo degli inquinanti, dalla migrazione nell\u27ambiente agli effetti sulla salute, ? stato istituto un gruppo di lavoro multidisciplinare per l\u27area di Gela. I seminari si sono svolti a ottobre 2007 e marzo 2008 a Roma e a giugno 2008 a Gela

Interplay between past market correlation structure changes and future volatility outbursts.

We report significant relations between past changes in the market correlation structure and future changes in the market volatility. This relation is made evident by using a measure of "correlation structure persistence" on correlation-based information filtering networks that quantifies the rate of change of the market dependence structure. We also measured changes in the correlation structure by means of a "metacorrelation" that measures a lagged correlation between correlation matrices computed over different time windows. Both methods show a deep interplay between past changes in correlation structure and future changes in volatility and we demonstrate they can anticipate market risk variations and this can be used to better forecast portfolio risk. Notably, these methods overcome the curse of dimensionality that limits the applicability of traditional econometric tools to portfolios made of a large number of assets. We report on forecasting performances and statistical significance of both methods for two different equity datasets. We also identify an optimal region of parameters in terms of True Positive and False Positive trade-off, through a ROC curve analysis. We find that this forecasting method is robust and it outperforms logistic regression predictors based on past volatility only. Moreover the temporal analysis indicates that methods based on correlation structural persistence are able to adapt to abrupt changes in the market, such as financial crises, more rapidly than methods based on past volatility

Bootstrapping Topological Properties and Systemic Risk of Complex Networks Using the Fitness Model

In this paper we present a novel method to reconstruct global topological properties of a complex network starting from limited information. We assume to know for all the nodes a non-topological quantity that we interpret as fitness. In contrast, we assume to know the degree, i.e. the number of connections, only for a subset of the nodes in the network. We then use a fitness model, calibrated on the subset of nodes for which degrees are known, in order to generate ensembles of networks. Here, we focus on topological properties that are relevant for processes of contagion and distress propagation in networks, i.e. network density and k-core structure, an

Diet of the two-banded plover (charadrius falklandicus) in península valdés, patagonia, Argentina.

El objetivo de este trabajo fue evaluar la dieta del Chorlito Doble Collar (Charadrius falklandicus) en Playa Colombo (Golfo Nuevo, Península Valdés) y compararla con la registrada previamente en Playa Fracasso (Golfo San José), sitios de características similares distanciados por 21 km. En febrero y marzo de 2003 se colectaron 49 heces y se conservaron individualmente. La reconstrucción de la dieta se realizó mediante el reconocimiento de estructuras clave presentes en las heces. Se identificaron siete ítems presa, siendo los más importantes en orden decreciente el poliqueto Travisia olens, la almeja Darina solenoides y los insectos. Se registraron 1.3 almejas por excremento, de una talla promedio de 10.6 mm y un equivalente en biomasa (expresada como peso seco libre de cenizas) de 6.4 mg. Se estimó la abundancia de invertebrados bentónicos para determinar la oferta trófica. Los chorlitos seleccionaron tallas de almejas de 4?12 mm. La dieta en los dos meses fue similar. En Playa Fracasso la presa más importante es Darina solenoides, seguida por Travisia olens. En comparación con Playa Fracasso, en Playa Colombo los chorlitos ingirieron una menor cantidad de almejas, pero de mayor talla y mayor biomasa.The objective of this study was to evaluate the diet of the Two-banded Plover (Charadrius falklandicus) in Playa Colombo (Golfo Nuevo, Península Valdés), and to compare it with the diet recorded in previous studies in Playa Fracasso (Golfo San José), a site with similar characteristics 21 km away. In February and March 2003, we collected 49 faeces that were conserved individually. The diet was reconstructed based on the identification of key structures present in the faeces. Seven prey items were identified, with the most important components being, in decreasing order, the polychaete Travisia olens, the clam Darina solenoides and insects. We recorded 1.3 clams per sample, with a mean size of 10.6 mm and an equivalent biomass (expressed as ash-free dry weight) of 6.4 mg. We estimated benthic invertebrate abundance in order to measure the trophic offer. Plovers selected clam sizes of 4–12 mm. The diet was similar between months. The most important prey in Playa Fracasso is Darina solenoides, followed by Travisia olens. Plovers eat a lower quantity of clams, but with higher size and biomass, in Playa Colombo than in Playa Fracasso.Fil: Musmeci, Luciana Raquel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Nacional Patagonico; Argentina;Fil: Bala, Luis Oscar. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Nacional Patagonico; Argentina;Fil: Hernández, María de Los Angeles. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Nacional Patagonico; Argentina

Income Convergence in the EU: Within-country regional patterns. CEPS Commentary, 5 February 2018

Income convergence is clearly taking place within the EU as a whole, but contrasting