Asymptotic Results for Simultaneous Group Sequential Analysis of Rank-Based and Weighted Kaplan-Meier Tests with Paired Survival Data in the Presence of Censoring. Technical report

This research sequentially monitors paired survival differences using a new class of non-parametric tests based on functionals of standardized paired weighted log-rank (PWLR) and standardized paired weighted Kaplan-Meier (PWKM) tests. During a trial these tests may alternately assume the role of the more extreme statistic. By monitoring PEMAX, the maximum between the absolute values of the standardized PWLR and PWKM, one combines advantages of rank-based and non rank-based paired testing paradigms. Simulations show that monitoring treatment differences using PEMAX maintains type I error and is nearly as powerful as using the more advantageous of the two tests, in proportional hazards (PH) as well as non-PH situations. Hence, PEMAX preserves power more robustly than individually monitored PWLR and PWKM, while maintaining a reasonably simple approach to design and analysis of results. An example from the Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study (ETDRS) is given

Regression Models for the Mean of the Quality-of-Life-Adjusted Restricted Survival Time Using Pseudo-Observations

In this research we develop generalized linear regression models for the mean of a quality-of-life-adjusted restricted survival time. Parameter and standard error estimates could be obtained from generalized estimating equations applied to pseudo-observations. Simulation studies with moderate sample sizes are conducted and an example from the International Breast Cancer Study Group Ludwig Trial V is used to illustrate the newly developed methodology.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/66346/1/j.1541-0420.2006.00723.x.pd

Estimating the Quality-of-Life-Adjusted Gap Time Distribution of Successive Events Subject to Censoring

When treatment effects are studied in the context of successive or recurrent life events, separate analyses of the quality-of-life scores and of the inter-event, gap, times might lead to possibly contradictory conclusions. In an attempt to reconcile this, we propose a unitary and more comprehensive nonparametric analysis that combines the two separate analyses by introducing the quality-of-life-adjusted gap time concept. Inverse probability of censoring estimators of the quality-of-life-adjusted gap time joint and conditional distributions are proposed and are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. Simulations performed in a variety of scenarios indicate that the joint and conditional quality-of-life-adjusted gap time distribution estimators are virtually unbiased, with properly estimated standard errors and asymptotic normality features. An example from the International Breast Cancer Study Group Trial V illustrates the use of the proposed estimators.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/91896/1/Adi's Biometrika paper.pd

Simultaneous Group Sequential Analysis of Rank-Based and Weighted Kaplan–Meier Tests for Paired Censored Survival Data

This research sequentially monitors paired survival differences using a new class of nonparametric tests based on functionals of standardized paired weighted log-rank (PWLR) and standardized paired weighted Kaplan–Meier (PWKM) tests. During a trial, these tests may alternately assume the role of the more extreme statistic. By monitoring PEMAX, the maximum between the absolute values of the standardized PWLR and PWKM, one combines advantages of rank-based (RB) and non-RB paired testing paradigms. Simulations show that monitoring treatment differences using PEMAX maintains type I error and is nearly as powerful as using the more advantageous of the two tests in proportional hazards (PH) as well as non-PH situations. Hence, PEMAX preserves power more robustly than individually monitored PWLR and PWKM, while maintaining a reasonably simple approach to design and analysis of results. An example from the Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study (ETDRS) is given.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/65557/1/j.1541-0420.2005.00337.x.pd

Toward Specification-Guided Active Mars Exploration for Cooperative Robot Teams

As a step towards achieving autonomy in space exploration missions, we consider a cooperative robotics system consisting of a copter and a rover. The goal of the copter is to explore an unknown environment so as to maximize knowledge about a science mission expressed in linear temporal logic that is to be executed by the rover. We model environmental uncertainty as a belief space Markov decision process and formulate the problem as a two-step stochastic dynamic program that we solve in a way that leverages the decomposed nature of the overall system. We demonstrate in simulations that the robot team makes intelligent decisions in the face of uncertainty

Compton-thick AGN in the NuSTAR era III: A systematic study of the torus covering factor

We present the analysis of a sample of 35 candidate Compton thick (CT-) active galactic nuclei (AGNs) selected in the nearby Universe (average redshift ~0.03) with the Swift-BAT 100-month survey. All sources have available NuSTAR data, thus allowing us to constrain with unprecedented quality important spectral parameters such as the obscuring torus line-of-sight column density (N_{H, z}), the average torus column density (N_{H, tor}) and the torus covering factor (f_c). We compare the best-fit results obtained with the widely used MyTorus (Murphy et al. 2009) model with those of the recently published borus02 model (Balokovic et al. 2018) used in the same geometrical configuration of MyTorus (i.e., with f_c=0.5). We find a remarkable agreement between the two, although with increasing dispersion in N_{H, z} moving towards higher column densities. We then use borus02 to measure f_c. High-f_c sources have, on average, smaller offset between N_{H, z} and N_{H, tor} than low-f_c ones. Therefore, low f_c values can be linked to a "patchy torus" scenario, where the AGN is seen through an over-dense region in the torus, while high-f_c objects are more likely to be obscured by a more uniform gas distribution. Finally, we find potential evidence of an inverse trend between f_c and the AGN 2-10 keV luminosity, i.e., sources with higher f_c values have on average lower luminosities.Comment: 35 Pages, 23 Figures. Accepted for publication in Ap

NuSTAR Spectroscopy of Multi-Component X-ray Reflection from NGC 1068

We report on observations of NGC1068 with NuSTAR, which provide the best constraints to date on its $>10$~keV spectral shape. We find no strong variability over the past two decades, consistent with its Compton-thick AGN classification. The combined NuSTAR, Chandra, XMM-Newton, and Swift-BAT spectral dataset offers new insights into the complex reflected emission. The critical combination of the high signal-to-noise NuSTAR data and a spatial decomposition with Chandra allow us to break several model degeneracies and greatly aid physical interpretation. When modeled as a monolithic (i.e., a single N_H) reflector, none of the common Compton-reflection models are able to match the neutral fluorescence lines and broad spectral shape of the Compton reflection. A multi-component reflector with three distinct column densities (e.g., N_H~1.5e23, 5e24, and 1e25 cm^{-2}) provides a more reasonable fit to the spectral lines and Compton hump, with near-solar Fe abundances. In this model, the higher N_H components provide the bulk of the Compton hump flux while the lower N_H component produces much of the line emission, effectively decoupling two key features of Compton reflection. We note that ~30% of the neutral Fe Kalpha line flux arises from >2" (~140 pc), implying that a significant fraction of the <10 keV reflected component arises from regions well outside of a parsec-scale torus. These results likely have ramifications for the interpretation of poorer signal-to-noise observations and/or more distant objects [Abridged].Comment: Submitted to ApJ; 23 pages (ApJ format); 11 figures and 3 tables; Comments welcomed

The Portable Ice Nucleation Experiment (PINE): A new online instrument for laboratory studies and automated long-term field observations of ice-nucleating particles

Atmospheric ice-nucleating particles (INPs) play an important role in determining the phase of clouds, which affects their albedo and lifetime. A lack of data on the spatial and temporal variation of INPs around the globe limits our predictive capacity and understanding of clouds containing ice. Automated instrumentation that can robustly measure INP concentrations across the full range of tropospheric temperatures is needed in order to address this knowledge gap. In this study, we demonstrate the functionality and capacity of the new Portable Ice Nucleation Experiment (PINE) to study ice nucleation processes and to measure INP concentrations under conditions pertinent for mixed-phase clouds, with temperatures from about −10 to about −40 C. PINE is a cloud expansion chamber which avoids frost formation on the cold walls and thereby omits frost fragmentation and related background ice signals during the operation. The development, working principle and treatment of data for the PINE instrument is discussed in detail. We present laboratory-based tests where PINE measurements were compared with those from the established AIDA (Aerosol Interaction and Dynamics in the Atmosphere) cloud chamber. Within experimental uncertainties, PINE agreed with AIDA for homogeneous freezing of pure water droplets and the immersion freezing activity of mineral aerosols. Results from a first field campaign conducted at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) observatory in Oklahoma, USA, from 1 October to 14 November 2019 with the latest PINE design (a commercially available PINE chamber) are also shown, demonstrating PINE\u27s ability to make automated field measurements of INP concentrations at a time resolution of about 8 min with continuous temperature scans for INP measurements between −10 and −30 ∘C. During this field campaign, PINE was continuously operated for 45 d in a fully automated and semi-autonomous way, demonstrating the capability of this new instrument to also be used for longer-term field measurements and INP monitoring activities in observatories

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: Prognostic value of changes in physiology and six minute hallwalk.

Rationale and Hypothesis: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is a fatal disease with a variable rate of progression. We hypothesized that changes in distance walked and quantity of desaturation during a six-minute-walk test (6MWT) would add prognostic information to changes in FVC or diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide. Methods: One hundred ninety-seven patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis were evaluated. Desaturation during the 6MWT was associated with increased mortality even if a threshold of 88% was not reached. Baseline walk distance predicted subsequent walk distance but was not a reliable predictor of subsequent mortality in multivariate survival models. The predictive ability of serial changes in physiology varied when patients were stratified by the presence/absence of desaturation 88% during a baseline 6MWT. For patients with a baseline saturation 88% during a 6MWT, the strongest observed predictor of mortality was serial change in diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide. For patients with saturation 88% during their baseline walk test, serial decreases in FVC and increases in desaturation area significantly predicted subsequent mortality, whereas decreases in walk distance and in diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide displayed less consistent statistical evidence of increasing mortality in our patients. Conclusion: These data highlight the importance of stratifying patients by degree of desaturation during a 6MWT before attributing prognostic value to serial changes in other physiologic variables.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/91940/1/2006 AJRCCM Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis - Prognostic value of changes in physiology and six minute hallwalk.pd