Estimating COVID-19 cases infected with the variant alpha (VOC 202012/01): an analysis of screening data in Tokyo, January-March 2021

[Background] In Japan, a part of confirmed patients’ samples have been screened for the variant of concern (VOC), including the variant alpha with N501Y mutation. The present study aimed to estimate the actual number of cases with variant alpha and reconstruct the epidemiological dynamics. [Methods] The number of cases with variant alpha out of all PCR confirmed cases was estimated, employing a hypergeometric distribution. An exponential growth model was fitted to the growth data of variant alpha cases over fourteen weeks in Tokyo. [Results] The weekly incidence with variant alpha from 18–24 January 2021 was estimated at 4.2 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.7, 44.0) cases. The expected incidence in early May ranged from 420–1120 cases per week, and the reproduction number of variant alpha was on the order of 1.5 even under the restriction of contact from January-March, 2021, Tokyo. [Conclusions] The variant alpha was predicted to swiftly dominate COVID-19 cases in Tokyo, and this has actually occurred by May 2021. Devising the proposed method, any country or location can interpret the virological sampling data

Thinking about thinking: people underestimate how enjoyable and engaging just waiting is

The ability to engage in internal thoughts without external stimulation is a unique characteristic in humans. The current research tested the hypothesis that people metacognitively underestimate their capability to enjoy this process of “just thinking.” Participants (university students; total N = 259) were asked to sit and wait in a quiet room without doing anything. Across six experiments, we consistently found that participants’ predicted enjoyment and engagement for the waiting task were significantly less than what they actually experienced. This underappreciation of just thinking also led participants to proactively avoid the waiting task in favor of an alternative task (i.e., Internet news checking), despite their experiences not being statistically different. These results suggest an inherent difficulty in accurately appreciating how engaging just thinking can be, and could explain why people prefer keeping themselves busy, rather than taking a moment for reflection and imagination in our daily life

Accumulation of Immunity in Heavy-Tailed Sexual Contact Networks Shapes Mpox Outbreak Sizes

Many countries affected by the global outbreak of mpox in 2022 have observed a decline in cases. Our mathematical model accounting for heavy-tailed sexual partnership distributions suggests that mpox epidemics can hit the infection-derived herd immunity threshold and begin to decline with less than 1% of sexually active MSM population infected regardless of interventions or behavioural changes. Consistently, we found that many countries and US states experienced an epidemic peak with cumulative cases of around 0.1-0.5% of MSM population. The observed decline in cases may not necessarily be attributable to interventions or behavioural changes primarily

Crucial role of nitric oxide synthases system in endothelium-dependent hyperpolarization in mice

The endothelium plays an important role in maintaining vascular homeostasis by synthesizing and releasing several relaxing factors, such as prostacyclin, nitric oxide (NO), and endothelium-derived hyperpolarizing factor (EDHF). We have previously demonstrated in animals and humans that endothelium-derived hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) is an EDHF that is produced in part by endothelial NO synthase (eNOS). In this study, we show that genetic disruption of all three NOS isoforms (neuronal [nNOS], inducible [iNOS], and endothelial [eNOS]) abolishes EDHF responses in mice. The contribution of the NOS system to EDHF-mediated responses was examined in eNOS−/−, n/eNOS−/−, and n/i/eNOS−/− mice. EDHF-mediated relaxation and hyperpolarization in response to acetylcholine of mesenteric arteries were progressively reduced as the number of disrupted NOS genes increased, whereas vascular smooth muscle function was preserved. Loss of eNOS expression alone was compensated for by other NOS genes, and endothelial cell production of H2O2 and EDHF-mediated responses were completely absent in n/i/eNOS−/− mice, even after antihypertensive treatment with hydralazine. NOS uncoupling was not involved, as modulation of tetrahydrobiopterin (BH4) synthesis had no effect on EDHF-mediated relaxation, and the BH4/dihydrobiopterin (BH2) ratio was comparable in mesenteric arteries and the aorta. These results provide the first evidence that EDHF-mediated responses are dependent on the NOSs system in mouse mesenteric arteries

Evaluation of Financial and Non-financial Conflicts of Interest and Quality of Evidence underlying Psoriatic Arthritis Clinical Practice Guidelines-Analysis of Personal Payments from Pharmaceutical Companies and Authors' Self-citation Rate in Japan and the United States

OBJECTIVE: To assess financial conflict of interest (FCOI) and non-financial conflicts of interest (NFCOI) among psoriatic arthritis clinical practice guideline (PsACPG) authors in Japan and US, and to evaluate the quality of evidence and strength of recommendations of PsACPG.METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis using payment data from major Japanese pharmaceutical companies and the US Open Payments Database from 2016 to 2018. All authors of PsACPG issued by Japanese Dermatological Association (JDAPsACPG) and American College of Rheumatology (ACRPsACPG) were included.RESULTS: Of 23 CPG authors in Japan, 21 (91.3%) received at least one payment, with the combined total of $3,335,413 between 2016 and 2018. Regarding 25 US authors, 21 (84.0$4,081,629 during the same period. The 3-year combined average payment per author was $145,018 (standard division [SD]:$114,302) in Japan and $162,825 (SD:$259,670) in US. 18 (78.3%) JDAPsACPG and 12 (48.0%) ACRPsACPG authors had undisclosed FCOI worth $474,663 and$218,501, respectively. The percentage of citations with at least one CPG author relative to total citations were 3.4% in Japan and 33.6% in US. 71.4% and 88.8% of recommendations for psoriatic arthritis in JDA and ACR were supported by low or very low quality of evidence.CONCLUSION: More rigorous cross-checking of information disclosed by pharmaceutical companies and self-reported by physicians, and more stringent and transparent COI policies are necessary.</p

Accurate and simple method for quantification of hepatic fat content using magnetic resonance imaging: a prospective study in biopsy-proven nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

To assess the degree of hepatic fat content, simple and noninvasive methods with high objectivity and reproducibility are required. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is one such candidate, although its accuracy remains unclear. We aimed to validate an MRI method for quantifying hepatic fat content by calibrating MRI reading with a phantom and comparing MRI measurements in human subjects with estimates of liver fat content in liver biopsy specimens. The MRI method was performed by a combination of MRI calibration using a phantom and double-echo chemical shift gradient-echo sequence (double-echo fast low-angle shot sequence) that has been widely used on a 1.5-T scanner. Liver fat content in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD, n = 26) was derived from a calibration curve generated by scanning the phantom. Liver fat was also estimated by optical image analysis. The correlation between the MRI measurements and liver histology findings was examined prospectively. Magnetic resonance imaging measurements showed a strong correlation with liver fat content estimated from the results of light microscopic examination (correlation coefficient 0.91, P < 0.001) regardless of the degree of hepatic steatosis. Moreover, the severity of lobular inflammation or fibrosis did not influence the MRI measurements. This MRI method is simple and noninvasive, has excellent ability to quantify hepatic fat content even in NAFLD patients with mild steatosis or advanced fibrosis, and can be performed easily without special devices.ArticleJOURNAL OF GASTROENTEROLOGY. 45(12):1263-1271 (2010)journal articl

Extragalactic Science, Cosmology and Galactic Archaeology with the Subaru Prime Focus Spectrograph (PFS)

The Subaru Prime Focus Spectrograph (PFS) is a massively-multiplexed fiber-fed optical and near-infrared 3-arm spectrograph (N_fiber=2400, 380<lambda<1260nm, 1.3 degree diameter FoV), offering unique opportunities in survey astronomy. Here we summarize the science case feasible for a survey of Subaru 300 nights. We describe plans to constrain the nature of dark energy via a survey of emission line galaxies spanning a comoving volume of 9.3 (Gpc/h)^3 in the redshift range 0.8<z<2.4. In each of 6 redshift bins, the cosmological distances will be measured to 3% precision via BAO, and redshift-space distortions will be used to constrain structure growth to 6% precision. In the GA program, radial velocities and chemical abundances of stars in the Milky Way and M31 will be used to infer the past assembly histories of spiral galaxies and the structure of their dark matter halos. Data will be secured for 10^6 stars in the Galactic thick-disk, halo and tidal streams as faint as V~22, including stars with V < 20 to complement the goals of the Gaia mission. A medium-resolution mode with R = 5000 to be implemented in the red arm will allow the measurement of multiple alpha-element abundances and more precise velocities for Galactic stars, elucidating the detailed chemo-dynamical structure and evolution of each of the main stellar components of the Milky Way Galaxy and of its dwarf spheroidal galaxies. For the extragalactic program, our simulations suggest the wide avelength range will be powerful in probing the galaxy population and its clustering over a wide redshift range. We propose to conduct a color-selected survey of 1<z<2 galaxies and AGN over 16 deg^2 to J~23.4, yielding a fair sample of galaxies with stellar masses above ~10^{10}Ms at z~2. A two-tiered survey of higher redshift LBGs and LAEs will quantify the properties of early systems close to the reionization epoch.Comment: This document describes the scientific program and requirements for the Subaru Prime Focus Spectrograph (PFS) project. Made significant revision based on studies for the Preliminary Design Review (PRD) held in Feb 2013. The higher-resolution paper file is available from http://member.ipmu.jp/masahiro.takada/pfs_astroph_rv.pd