Multicriterial Methods used in Expert Systems for Business Decision Making

Many organizations are in front of most competitive economic environments, where, in order to survive, they must reduce costs all the time and adopt the most intelligent business strategies. In most decision making activities the manager has to decide which variant is the most advantageous, taking into account a multitude of criterions. Expert systems use the expert's knowledge and problem solving skills in a particular subject area throughout an organization, and can propose the optimal variant to be chosen. In this paper we have outlined the role of multicriterial methods in programming expert systems to decide in favor of the most eligible variant between a multitude of possibilities. We also made a case study and designed the prototype of an expert system for choosing the most profitable offer among many, in the prenegotiation stage, for a company, in order to organize the negotiation processes accor-dingly. In this respect, we tried to highlight the usefulness of multicriterial mathematical me-thods in three negotiation processes of a Romanian negotiation team with foreign negotiation teams for the acquisition of an equipment.Business Decision Making, Expert Systems, Multicriterial Methods

A Metacognitive Approach to Trust and a Case Study: Artificial Agency

Trust is defined as a belief of a human H (‘the trustor’) about the ability of an agent A (the ‘trustee’) to perform future action(s). We adopt here dispositionalism and internalism about trust: H trusts A iff A has some internal dispositions as competences. The dispositional competences of A are high-level metacognitive requirements, in the line of a naturalized virtue epistemology. (Sosa, Carter) We advance a Bayesian model of two (i) confidence in the decision and (ii) model uncertainty. To trust A, H demands A to be self-assertive about confidence and able to self-correct its own models. In the Bayesian approach trust can be applied not only to humans, but to artificial agents (e.g. Machine Learning algorithms). We explain the advantage the metacognitive trust when compared to mainstream approaches and how it relates to virtue epistemology. The metacognitive ethics of trust is swiftly discussed

Early Warning Models for Banking Supervision in Romania

In this paper we propose an early warning system for the Romanian banking sector, as an addition to the standardized CAAMPL rating system used by the National Bank of Romania for assessing the local credit institutions. We aim to find the determinants for downgrades as well as for a bank to have a weak overall position, to estimate the respective probabilities and to be able to perform rating predictions. Having this purpose, we build two models with binary dependent variables and one ordered logistic model that accounts for all possible future ratings. One result is that indicators for current position, market share, profitability and assets quality determine rating downgrades, whereas capital adequacy, liquidity and macroeconomic environment are not represented in the model. Banks that will have a weak overall position in one year can be predicted using also indicators for current position, market share, profitability and assets quality, as well as, in this case, capital adequacy and macroeconomic environment, the latter only for the binary dependent variable model, leaving liquidity indicators out again. Based on the ordered logistic model’s capacity for rating prediction, we estimated one year horizon scores and ratings for each bank and we aggregated these results for predicting a measure of assessing the local banking sector as a whole.early warning system, CAAMPL rating system

Considerations regarding the agile development of portals

Starting with methodologies, methods and techniques used generally in the development of information systems, a personal approach regarding quick development of portals has been introduced. After a strict theoretical foundation the proposal has been applied within a real collaborative knowledge portal development project. We consider the proposed agile development approach (based on the prototype technique enriched with MDA valences) suitable to all kind of information systems. The agile development framework establishes the life-cycle phases of product development taking into account the desired functionalities.portal, prototype technique, model driven architecture, agile development

Implementation of the Multidimensional Modeling Concepts into Object-Relational Databases

A key to survival in the business world is being able to analyze, plan and react to changing business conditions as fast as possible. With multidimensional models the managers can explore information at different levels of granularity and the decision makers at all levels can quickly respond to changes in the business climate-the ultimate goal of business intelligence. This paper focuses on the implementation of the multidimensional concepts into object-relational databases.e-business, database

Rate of convergence for a Galerkin scheme approximating a two-scale reaction-diffusion system with nonlinear transmission condition

We study a two-scale reaction-diffusion system with nonlinear reaction terms and a nonlinear transmission condition (remotely ressembling Henry's law) posed at air-liquid interfaces. We prove the rate of convergence of the two-scale Galerkin method proposed in Muntean & Neuss-Radu (2009) for approximating this system in the case when both the microstructure and macroscopic domain are two-dimensional. The main difficulty is created by the presence of a boundary nonlinear term entering the transmission condition. Besides using the particular two-scale structure of the system, the ingredients of the proof include two-scale interpolation-error estimates, an interpolation-trace inequality, and improved regularity estimates.Comment: 14 pages, table of content

Error control for the FEM approximation of an upscaled thermo-diffusion system with Smoluchowski interactions

We analyze a coupled system of evolution equations that describes the effect of thermal gradients on the motion and deposition of $N$ populations of colloidal species diffusing and interacting together through Smoluchowski production terms. This class of systems is particularly useful in studying drug delivery, contaminant transportin complex media, as well as heat shocks thorough permeable media. The particularity lies in the modeling of the nonlinear and nonlocal coupling between diffusion and thermal conduction. We investigate the semidiscrete as well as the fully discrete em a priori error analysis of the finite elements approximation of the weak solution to a thermo-diffusion reaction system posed in a macroscopic domain. The mathematical techniques include energy-like estimates and compactness arguments

Large-time behavior of a two-scale semilinear reaction-diffusion system for concrete sulfatation

We study the large-time behavior of (weak) solutions to a two-scale reaction-diffusion system coupled with a nonlinear ordinary differential equations modeling the partly dissipative corrosion of concrete (/cement)-based materials with sulfates. We prove that as $t\to\infty$ the solution to the original two-scale system converges to the corresponding two-scale stationary system. To obtain the main result we make use essentially of the theory of evolution equations governed by subdifferential operators of time-dependent convex functions developed combined with a series of two-scale energy-like time-independent estimates.Comment: 20 page