Floats, pegs and the transmission of fiscal policy

According to conventional wisdom, fiscal policy is more effective under a fixed than under a flexible exchange rate regime. In this paper the authors reconsider the transmission of shocks to government spending across these regimes within a standard New Keynesian model of a small open economy. Because of the stronger emphasis on intertemporal optimization, the New Keynesian framework requires a precise specification of fiscal and monetary policies, and their interaction, at both short and long horizons. The authors derive an analytical characterization of the transmission mechanism of expansionary spending policies under a peg, showing that the long-term real interest rate always rises in response to an increase in government spending if inflation rises initially. This response drives down private demand even though short-term real rates fall. As this need not be the case under floating exchange rates, the conventional wisdom needs to be qualified. Under plausible medium-term fiscal policies, government spending is not necessarily less expansionary under floating exchange rates.Fiscal policy ; Monetary policy

Soverign risk and the effects of fiscal retrenchment in deep recessions

The authors analyze the effects of government spending cuts on economic activity in an environment of severe fiscal strain, as reflected by a sizeable risk premium on government debt. Specifically, they consider a "sovereign risk channel," through which sovereign default risk spills over to the rest of the economy, raising funding costs in the private sector. The authors' analysis is based on a variant of the model suggested by Cúrdia and Woodford (2009). It allows for costly financial intermediation and inter-household borrowing and lending in equilibrium, but maintains the tractability of the baseline New Keynesian model. They show that, if monetary policy is constrained in offsetting the effect of higher sovereign risk on private-sector borrowing conditions, the sovereign risk channel exacerbates indeterminacy problems: private-sector beliefs of a weakening economy can become self-fulfilling. Under these conditions, fiscal retrenchment can limit the risk of macroeconomic instability. In addition, if fiscal strain is very severe and monetary policy is constrained for an extended period, fiscal retrenchment may actually stimulate economic activity.Fiscal policy ; Monetary policy

GLUMIP 2.0: SAS/IML Software for Planning Internal Pilots

Internal pilot designs involve conducting interim power analysis (without interim data analysis) to modify the final sample size. Recently developed techniques have been described to avoid the type~I error rate inflation inherent to unadjusted hypothesis tests, while still providing the advantages of an internal pilot design. We present GLUMIP 2.0, the latest version of our free SAS/IML software for planning internal pilot studies in the general linear univariate model (GLUM) framework. The new analytic forms incorporated into the updated software solve many problems inherent to current internal pilot techniques for linear models with Gaussian errors. Hence, the GLUMIP 2.0 software makes it easy to perform exact power analysis for internal pilots under the GLUM framework with independent Gaussian errors and fixed predictors.

A New F Approximation for the Pillai-Bartlett Trace under H 0

Pillai suggested two approximations for the Pillai–Bartlett trace statistic in the null case. The first one matches one moment of a β1 random variable, and corresponds to an F random variable, and the second matches four moments in the Pearson system. Although intuitively appealing and widely used in current statistical packages, the first lacks accuracy even with moderate sample size. The second matches two moment ratios in the Pearson system and provides much greater accuracy. Two new approximations match two moments of a β1 random variable, and hence correspond to an F random variable, yet achieve most of the accuracy of Pillai’s second approximation. The second of the two new approximations provides the best combination of logical properties and numerical accuracy

GLUMIP 2.0: SAS/IML Software for Planning Internal Pilots

Internal pilot designs involve conducting interim power analysis (without interim data analysis) to modify the final sample size. Recently developed techniques have been described to avoid the type~I error rate inflation inherent to unadjusted hypothesis tests, while still providing the advantages of an internal pilot design. We present GLUMIP 2.0, the latest version of our free SAS/IML software for planning internal pilot studies in the general linear univariate model (GLUM) framework. The new analytic forms incorporated into the updated software solve many problems inherent to current internal pilot techniques for linear models with Gaussian errors. Hence, the GLUMIP 2.0 software makes it easy to perform exact power analysis for internal pilots under the GLUM framework with independent Gaussian errors and fixed predictors

POWERLIB: SAS/IML Software for Computing Power in Multivariate Linear Models

The POWERLIB SAS/IML software provides convenient power calculations for a wide range of multivariate linear models with Gaussian errors. The software includes the Box, Geisser-Greenhouse, Huynh-Feldt, and uncorrected tests in the "univariate" approach to repeated measures (UNIREP), the Hotelling Lawley Trace, Pillai-Bartlett Trace, and Wilks Lambda tests in "multivariate" approach (MULTIREP), as well as a limited but useful range of mixed models. The familiar univariate linear model with Gaussian errors is an important special case. For estimated covariance, the software provides confidence limits for the resulting estimated power. All power and confidence limits values can be output to a SAS dataset, which can be used to easily produce plots and tables for manuscripts.

Tests for Gaussian repeated measures with missing data in small samples

For small samples of Gaussian repeated measures with missing data, Barton and Cramer (1989) recommended using the EM algorithm for estimation and reducing the degrees of freedom for an analog of Rao's F approximation to Wilks' test. Computer simulations led to the conclusion that the modified test was slightly conservative for total sample size of N = 40. Here we consider additional methods and smaller sample sizes, N ∈ {12.24}. We describe analogs of the Pillai-Bartlett trace, Hotelling-Lawley trace and Geisser-Greenhouse corrected univariate tests which allow for missing data. Eleven sample size adjustments were examined which replace N by some function of the numbers of nonmissing pairs of responses in computing error degrees of freedom. Overall, simulation results allowed concluding that an adjusted test can always control test size at or below the nominal rate, even with as few as 12 observations and up to 10% missing data. The choice of method varies with the test statistic. Replacing N by the mean number of non-missing responses per variable works best for the Geisser-Greenhouse test. The Pillai-Bartlett test requires the stronger adjustment of replacing N by the harmonic mean number of non-missing pairs of responses. For Wilks' and Hotelling-Lawley, an even more aggressive adjustment based on the minimum number of non-missing pairs must be used

HIV and/or AIDS, migrant labour and the experience of God : a practical theological postfoundationalist approach

Migrant workers in the Deciduous Fruit Industry are part of the marginalised communities in South Africa who have been severely affected by HIV and/or AIDS. A postfoundationalist approach and the Seven Movements proposed by Müller were traced to present the research undertaken amongst migrant workers with HIV or AIDS. The practical theological investigation was developed from the praxis of HIV and AIDS and the question that it aimed to answer was: ‘What is the experience of God in the lives of persons affected by or infected with HIV/AIDS?’ Whilst it is understood that Christian belief has its own, exclusive integrity, if it is to be valid, it should be able to incorporate the different dimensions of our modern practice to give it the maximum level of meaning and significance.http://www.hts.org.zahttp://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-07302010-134237

ON THE EXPECTED VALUES OF SEQUENCES OF FUNCTIONS

We prove new extensions to lemmas about combinations of convergent sequences of distribution functions and absolutely continuous bounded functions. New lemma one, a generalized Helly theorem, allows computing the limit of the expected value of a sequence of functions with respect to a sequence of measures. Previously published results allow either the function or the measure to be a sequence, but not both. Lemma two allows computing the expected value of an absolutely continuous monotone function by integrating the probabilities of the inverse function values. Previous results were restricted to the identity function. Lemma three gives a computationally and analytically convenient form for the limit of the expected value of a sequence of functions of a sequence of random variables. This is a new result that follows directly from the first two lemmas. Although the lemmas resemble standard results and seem obviously true, we have found only similar looking and related but quite distinct results in the literature. We provide examples which highlight the value of the new results