Estimating the prevalence of COPD in an African country:evidence from southern Nigeria

# BACKGROUND: Though several environmental and demographic factors would suggest a high burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in most African countries, there is insufficient country-level synthesis to guide public health policy. # METHODS: A systematic search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health and African Journals Online identified studies reporting the prevalence of COPD in Nigeria. We provided a detailed synthesis of study characteristics, and overall median and interquartile range (IQR) of COPD prevalence in Nigeria by case definitions (spirometry or non-spirometry). # RESULTS: Of 187 potential studies, eight studies (6 spirometry and 2 non-spirometry) including 4,234 Nigerians met the criteria. From spirometry assessment, which is relatively internally consistent, the median prevalence of COPD in Nigeria was 9.2% (interquartile range, IQR: 7.6–10.0), compared to a lower prevalence (5.1%, IQR: 2.2–15.4) from studies based on British Medical Research Council (BMRC) criteria or doctor’s diagnosis. The median prevalence of COPD was almost the same among rural (9.5%, IQR: 7.6–10.3) and urban dwellers (9.0%, IQR: 5.3–9.3) from spirometry studies. # CONCLUSIONS: A limited number of studies on COPD introduces imprecision in prevalence estimates and presents concerns on the level of response available across different parts of Nigeria, and indeed across many countries in sub-Saharan Africa

The Conundrum of Low COVID-19 Mortality Burden in sub-Saharan Africa: Myth or Reality?

The burden of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been substantially lower compared to other regions of the world. Extensive morbidity and mortality were not observed among countries in SSA during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. To explain this phenomenon, several hypotheses have been formulated, including the low median age of the population in most SSA countries, lack of long-term care facilities, cross-protection from other local coronaviruses, insufficient testing and reporting resulting in an undercounting of COVID-related deaths, genetic risk factors, or the benefit of early lockdowns that were extensive in many SSA countries. Early lockdowns in SSA have been some of the strictest and resulted in devastating economic and social consequences and increased mortality from other health-related problems including maternal deaths. We review the literature and rationale supporting the various hypotheses that have been put forward to account for relatively low hospitalization and death rates for COVID-19 in SSA. We conclude that the strongest evidence would support the demographic age structure with a very low median age as the primary factor in leading to the low mortality seen in the first wave of the pandemic. The impact of new variants of concern in SSA raises the risk of more severe waves. Nevertheless, furthering the understanding of the underlying explanations for the low morbidity and mortality seen across SSA countries may allow the adoption of unique strategies for limiting the spread of COVID-19 without the need for stringent lockdowns

Current prevalence pattern of tobacco smoking in Nigeria: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background National smoking cessation strategies in Nigeria are hindered by lack of up-to-date epidemiologic data. We aimed to estimate prevalence of tobacco smoking in Nigeria to guide relevant interventions. Methods We conducted systematic search of publicly available evidence from 1990 through 2018. A random-effects meta-analysis and meta-regression epidemiologic model were employed to determine prevalence and number of smokers in Nigeria in 1995 and 2015. Results Across 64 studies (n = 54,755), the pooled crude prevalence of current smokers in Nigeria was 10.4% (9.0–11.7) and 17.7% (15.2–20.2) for ever smokers. This was higher among men compared to women in both groups. There was considerable variation across geopolitical zones, ranging from 5.4% (North-west) to 32.1% (North-east) for current smokers, and 10.5% (South-east) to 43.6% (North-east) for ever smokers. Urban and rural dwellers had relatively similar rates of current smokers (10.7 and 9.1%), and ever smokers (18.1 and 17.0%). Estimated median age at initiation of smoking was 16.8 years (IQR: 13.5–18.0). From 1995 to 2015, we estimated an increase in number of current smokers from 8 to 11 million (or a decline from 13 to 10.6% of the population). The pooled mean cigarettes consumption per person per day was 10.1 (6.1–14.2), accounting for 110 million cigarettes per day and over 40 billion cigarettes consumed in Nigeria in 2015. Conclusions While the prevalence of smokers may be declining in Nigeria, one out of ten Nigerians still smokes daily. There is need for comprehensive measures and strict anti-tobacco laws targeting tobacco production and marketing

Deaths during tuberculosis treatment among paediatric patients in a large tertiary hospital in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Despite availability of effective cure, tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading cause of death in children. In many high-burden countries, childhood TB is underdiagnosed and underreported, and care is often accessed too late, resulting in adverse treatment outcomes. In this study, we examined the time to death and its associated factors among a cohort of children that commenced TB treatment in a large treatment centre in northern Nigeria. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study of children that started TB treatment between 2010 and 2014. We determined mortality rates per 100 person-months of treatment, as well as across treatment and calendar periods. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to determine adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) for factors associated with mortality. RESULTS: Among 299 children with a median age 4 years and HIV prevalence of 33.4%; 85 (28.4%) died after 1,383 months of follow-up. Overall mortality rate was 6.1 per 100 person-months. Deaths occurred early during treatment and declined from 42.4 per 100 person-months in the 1st week of treatment to 2.2 per 100 person-months after at the 3rd month of treatment. Mortality was highest between October to December period (9.1 per 100 pm) and lowest between July and September (2.8 per 100 pm). Risk factors for mortality included previous TB treatment (aHR 2.04:95%CI;1.09-3.84); HIV infection (aHR 1.66:95%CI;1.02-2.71), having either extra-pulmonary disease (aHR 2.21:95%CI;1.26-3.89) or both pulmonary and extrapulmonary disease (aHR 3.03:95%CI;1.70-5.40). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality was high and occurred early during treatment in this cohort, likely indicative of poor access to prompt TB diagnosis and treatment. A redoubling of efforts at improving universal health coverage are required to achieve the End TB Strategy target of zero deaths from TB

Assessing readiness to implement routine immunization among patent and proprietary medicine vendors in Kano, Nigeria : a theory-informed cross-sectional study

Background: Patent and proprietary medicine vendors (PPMVs) are widespread in communities and can potentially be used to expand access to routine immunization especially in underserved areas. In this study, we aimed to assess their readiness to implement routine immunization in Kano, Nigeria and identify factors associated with it. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of PPMVs aged 18 years and above in Kano metropolis, Nigeria, using cluster sampling technique. A 10-item Likert scale-based measure was used to estimate readiness score. The relationship between selected factors and readiness score was examined using multilevel linear modeling technique. Results: A total of 455 PPMVs with median age of 36 years participated in the study. The median raw score for readiness was 4.7 (IQR: 4.3 – 4-8) (maximum obtainable was 5). The mean readiness score (obtained through factor analysis) was 5.28 (SD: 0.58). Readiness score was associated with factors such as knowledge of immunization and task demand, engagement by other public health programs among others. Conclusion: This study demonstrated the feasibility of measuring the level of readiness for implementing routine immunization among PPMVs. Given the high level of readiness, policy makers should consider the possibility of expanding access to immunization through PPMVs

High mortality among tuberculosis patients on treatment in Nigeria: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading cause of death in much of sub-Saharan Africa despite available effective treatment. Prompt initiation of TB treatment and access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) remains vital to the success of TB control. We assessed time to mortality after treatment onset using data from a large treatment centre in Nigeria. METHODS: We analysed a retrospective cohort of TB patients that commenced treatment between January 2010 and December 2014 in Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital. We estimated mortality rates per person-months at risk (pm). Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine risk factors for mortality. RESULTS: Among 1,424 patients with a median age of 36.6 years, 237 patients (16.6%) died after commencing TB treatment giving a mortality rate of 3.68 per 100 pm of treatment in this cohort. Most deaths occurred soon after treatment onset with a mortality rate of 37.6 per 100 pm in the 1st week of treatment. Risk factors for death were being HIV-positive but not on anti-retroviral treatment (ART) (aHR 1.39(1 · 04-1 · 85)), residence outside the city (aHR 3 · 18(2.28-4.45)), previous TB treatment (aHR 3.48(2.54-4.77)), no microbiological confirmation (aHR 4.96(2.69-9.17)), having both pulmonary and extra-pulmonary TB (aHR 1.45(1.03-2.02), and referral from a non-programme linked clinic/centre (aHR 3.02(2.01-4.53)). CONCLUSIONS: We attribute early deaths in this relatively young cohort to delay in diagnosis and treatment of TB, inadequate treatment of drug-resistant TB, and poor ART access. Considerable expansion and improvement in quality of diagnosis and treatment services for TB and HIV are needed to achieve the sustainable development goal of reducing TB deaths by 95% by 2035

Laboratory-confirmed hospital-acquired infections:An analysis of a hospital's surveillance data in Nigeria

Objective: Hospital-acquired infections (HAI) are a global problem and a major public health concern in hospitals throughout the world. Quantification of HAI is needed in developing countries; hence we describe the results of a 2-year surveillance data in a tertiary hospital in Nigeria. Methodology: This study is a 2-year review using secondary data collected at a tertiary referral center in northwestern Nigeria. The data was collected using surveillance forms modeled based on the Centre for Disease Control (CDC) protocol. Descriptive statistics were used to present results as frequencies and percentages. Result: 518 patients developed HAI out of 8216 patients giving an overall prevalence of 6.3%. The mean age of the patients was 35.98 years (±15.92). Males constituted 281 (54.2%). UTI 223 (43.1%) was the most prevalent HAI. Overall, E. coli 207 (40.0%) was the most frequent isolates followed by P. aerugenosa 80 (15.4%). There was a high prevalence of cloxacillin resistant S. aureus (67.9%) and gram-negative rods resistant to third-generation cephalosporins. Trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole resistance across the board was more than 90%. Conclusion: There is a high burden of HAI especially UTI in our hospital with resistance to commonly used antibiotics documented. Keywords: Public health, Infectious diseas

Estimating the prevalence of overweight and obesity in Nigeria in 2020: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Targeted public health response to obesity in Nigeria is relatively low due to limited epidemiologic understanding. We aimed to estimate nationwide and sub-national prevalence of overweight and obesity in the adult Nigerian population. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health, and Africa Journals Online were systematically searched for relevant epidemiologic studies in Nigeria published on or after 01 January 1990. We assessed quality of studies and conducted a random-effects meta-analysis on extracted crude prevalence rates. Using a meta-regression model, we estimated the number of overweight and obese persons in Nigeria in the year 2020. Results From 35 studies (n = 52,816), the pooled crude prevalence rates of overweight and obesity in Nigeria were 25.0% (95% confidence interval, CI: 20.4–29.6) and 14.3% (95% CI: 12.0–15.5), respectively. The prevalence in women was higher compared to men at 25.5% (95% CI: 17.1–34.0) versus 25.2% (95% CI: 18.0–32.4) for overweight, and 19.8% (95% CI: 3.9–25.6) versus 12.9% (95% CI: 9.1–16.7) for obesity, respectively. The pooled mean body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference were 25.6 kg/m2 and 86.5 cm, respectively. We estimated that there were 21 million and 12 million overweight and obese persons in the Nigerian population aged 15 years or more in 2020, accounting for an age-adjusted prevalence of 20.3% and 11.6%, respectively. The prevalence rates of overweight and obesity were consistently higher among urban dwellers (27.2% and 14.4%) compared to rural dwellers (16.4% and 12.1%). Conclusions Our findings suggest a high prevalence of overweight and obesity in Nigeria. This is marked in urban Nigeria and among women, which may in part be due to widespread sedentary lifestyles and a surge in processed food outlets, largely reflective of a trend across many African settings

Health workforce and governance: the crisis in Nigeria

Background In Nigeria, several challenges have been reported within the health sector, especially in training, funding, employment, and deployment of the health workforce. We aimed to review recent health workforce crises in the Nigerian health sector to identify key underlying causes and provide recommendations toward preventing and/or managing potential future crises in Nigeria. Methods We conducted a scoping literature search of PubMed to identify studies on health workforce and health governance in Nigeria. A critical analysis, with extended commentary, on recent health workforce crises (2010–2016) and the health system in Nigeria was conducted. Results The Nigerian health system is relatively weak, and there is yet a coordinated response across the country. A number of health workforce crises have been reported in recent times due to several months’ salaries owed, poor welfare, lack of appropriate health facilities and emerging factions among health workers. Poor administration and response across different levels of government have played contributory roles to further internal crises among health workers, with different factions engaged in protracted supremacy challenge. These crises have consequently prevented optimal healthcare delivery to the Nigerian population. Conclusions An encompassing stakeholders’ forum in the Nigerian health sector remain essential. The national health system needs a solid administrative policy foundation that allows coordination of priorities and partnerships in the health workforce and among various stakeholders. It is hoped that this paper may prompt relevant reforms in health workforce and governance in Nigeria toward better health service delivery in the country

Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990-2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

Background: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. Methods: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0). Findings: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1–38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78–0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91–1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95–1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58–35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49–42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05–0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76–2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress. Interpretation: Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH