Model-assisted predictions on prognosis in HNSCC: do we learn?

Dedicated software packages incorporating prognostic models are meant to aid physicians in making accurate predictions of prognosis. This study concerns 742 predictions of 5-year survival on consecutive newly diagnosed patients with head- and neck squamous cell carcinoma. The 5-year survival predictions made by the physicians are not compared with actual survival, but with a prediction made by OncologIQ, a dedicated software package. We used a linear regression and a linear mixed-effects model to look at absolute differences between both predictions and possible learning effects. Predictions made by the physicians were optimistic and inaccurate. Using the linear regression and linear mixed-effects models, the physicians’ learning effect showed little improvement per successive prediction. We conclude that prognostic predictions in general are imprecise. When given feedback on the model’s predicted survival, the accuracy increases, but only very modestly

Certified causes of death in patients with mesothelioma in South East England

Background: Mesothelioma is a highly fatal cancer that is caused by exposure to asbestos fibres. In many populations, the occurrence of mesothelioma is monitored with the use of mortality data from death certification. We examine certified causes of death of patients who have been diagnosed with mesothelioma, and assess the validity of death certification data as a proxy for mesothelioma incidence.Methods: We extracted mesothelioma registrations in the South East of England area between 2000 and 2004 from the Thames Cancer Registry database. We retained for analysis 2200 patients who had died at the time of analysis, after having excluded seven dead cases where the causes of death were not known to the cancer registry. The 2200 deaths were classified hierarchically to identify (1) mesothelioma deaths, (2) deaths certified as lung cancer deaths or (3) deaths from unspecified cancer, and (4) deaths from other causes.Results: 87% of the patients had mesothelioma mentioned on the death certificate. 6% had no mention of mesothelioma but included lung cancer as a cause of death. Another 6% had no mention of mesothelioma or lung cancer, but included an unspecified cancer as a cause of death. Lastly, 2% had other causes of death specified on the death certificate.Conclusion: This analysis suggests that official mortality data may underestimate the true occurrence of mesothelioma by around 10%

Lung cancer referral patterns in the former Yorkshire region of the UK

The purpose of this study was to find out what proportion of patients are referred as lung cancer guidelines assume, whether different referral pathways result in different management and what proportion of patients are seen within recommended time intervals between referral and treatment. A randomly selected sample of 400 lung cancer cases registered with the former Yorkshire Cancer Registry database in 1993 was selected for casenote analysis. Mode of presentation, speciality of initial referral, treatment by specialist, time intervals for key points in the referral pathways were analyzed. A total of 362 (90.5%) of case-notes were available. Less than half of lung cancer patients (173, 47.8%) presented to hospital with a chest X-ray diagnosis of lung cancer. Forty-one (11.3%) presented as self-referrals to Accident and Emergency and the remainder were referred without a diagnosis of lung cancer by other routes, mainly via GPs. Patients who did not present initially with a lung cancer diagnosis were less likely to receive specialist care (62% : 96%), or have their diagnosis histologically confirmed (57.1% : 80.3%) or receive surgery or radical radiotherapy (6.9% : 13.9%). Nine per cent of all 362 patients did not receive a specialist opinion. Eighty per cent of patients referred by a GP with CXR suspected lung cancer were seen at hospital within 2 weeks. Only 32.4% of those receiving active treatment were treated within 8 weeks of clinical diagnosis or first hospital visit. Lung cancer patients presenting to hospital without a suspicious CXR are less likely to have specialist care, histological confirmation of their cancer and have lower rates of active treatment (surgery, any radiotherapy or chemotherapy)

Geographical inequalities in lung cancer management and survival in South East England: evidence of variation in access to oncology services?

This study aimed to determine whether the management and survival of patients with lung cancer varied among 26 health authorities in South East England. The Thames Cancer Registry identified patients diagnosed with lung cancer (ICD-10 codes C33-C34) between 1995 and 1999. After excluding death certificate only patients, 32,818 (81%) patients were analysed. The proportions of patients receiving active treatment varied among health authorities between 5 and 17% for non-investigative surgery, 4 and 17% for any chemotherapy, 8 and 30% for any radiotherapy and 15 and 42% for any active treatment. One-year patient survival ranged from 11 to 34%. There was evidence of health authority level variation even after adjusting for case mix. Patients whose first hospital attendance was at a radiotherapy centre were more likely to receive active treatment (OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.21-2.46), chemotherapy (1.38, 1.06-1.79) or radiotherapy (1.86, 1.28-2.71). There was some evidence that patients whose first hospital attendance was at a radiotherapy centre survived longer. This study shows there is geographical inequality in the treatment given to lung cancer patients and patient survival in South East England. There was some evidence to suggest that these inequalities might be explained by variations in access to oncology services. Future studies should investigate the pathways and barriers to specialist care in this condition

Defining and analysing symptom palliation in cancer clinical trials: a deceptively difficult exercise

The assessment of symptom palliation is an essential component of many treatment comparisons in clinical trials, yet an extensive literature search revealed no consensus as to its precise definition, which could embrace relief of symptoms, time to their onset, duration, degree, as well as symptom control and prevention. In an attempt to assess the importance of these aspects and to compare different methods of analysis, we used one symptom (cough) from a patient self-assessment questionnaire (the Rotterdam Symptom Checklist) in a large (>300 patient) multicentre randomized clinical trial (conducted by the Medical Research Council Lung Cancer Working Party) of palliative chemotherapy in small-cell lung cancer. The regimens compared were a two-drug regimen (2D) and a four-drug regimen (4D). No differences were seen between the regimens in time of onset of palliation or its duration. The degree of palliation was strongly related to the initial severity: 90% of the patients with moderate or severe cough at baseline reported improvement, compared with only 53% of those with mild cough. Analyses using different landmark time points gave conflicting results: the 4D regimen was superior at 1 month and at 3 months, whereas at 2 months the 2D regimen appeared superior. When improvement at any time up to 3 months was considered, the 4D regimen showed a significant benefit (4D 79%, 2D 60%, P = 0.02). These findings emphasize the need for caution in interpreting results, and the importance of working towards a standard definition of symptom palliation. The current lack of specified criteria makes analysis and interpretation of trial results difficult, and comparison across trials impossible. A standard definition of palliation for use in the analysis of clinical trials data is proposed, which takes into account aspects of onset, duration and degree of palliation, and symptom improvement, control and prevention. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

The effect of chemotherapy on health-related quality of life in mesothelioma: Results from the SWAMP trial

© 2015 Cancer Research UK. All rights reserved. Background: The effect of chemotherapy on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is poorly understood. Patient-individualised prognostication and prediction of treatment response from chemotherapy is useful but little evidence exists to guide practice. Method: Consecutive patients with MPM who were fit for first-line chemotherapy with pemetrexed and cisplatin\carboplatin were recruited and followed up for a minimum of 12 months. This study focussed on the HRQoL outcomes of these patients using the EQ-5D, EORTC QLQ-C30 and LC13. Results: Seventy-three patients were recruited of which 58 received chemotherapy and 15 opted for best supportive care (BSC). Compliance with HRQoL questionnaires was 98% at baseline. The chemotherapy group maintained HRQoL compared with the BSC group whose overall HRQoL fell (P=0.006) with worsening dyspnoea and pain. The impact of chemotherapy was irrespective of histological subtype although those with non-epithelioid disease had worse HRQoL at later time points (P=0.012). Additionally, those with a falling mesothelin or improvement on modified-RECIST CT at early follow-up had a better HRQoL at 16 weeks. Conclusions: HRQoL was maintained following chemotherapy compared with a self-selected BSC group. Once chemotherapy is initiated, a falling mesothelin or improved RECIST CT findings infer a quality-of-life advantage

Systemic Treatments for Mesothelioma: Standard and Novel

Systemic therapy is the only treatment option for the majority of mesothelioma patients, for whom age, co-morbid medical illnesses, non-epithelial histology, and locally advanced disease often preclude surgery. For many years, chemotherapy had a minimal impact on the natural history of this cancer, engendering considerable nihilism. Countless drugs were evaluated, most of which achieved response rates below 20% and median survival of <1 year. Several factors have hampered the evaluation of systemic regimens in patients with mesothelioma. The disease is uncommon, affecting only about 2500 Americans annually. Thus, most clinical trials are small, and randomized studies are challenging to accrue. There is significant heterogeneity within the patient populations of these small trials, for several reasons. Since all of the staging systems for mesothelioma are surgically based, it is almost impossible to accurately determine the stage of a patient who has not been resected. Patients with very early stage disease may be lumped together with far more advanced patients in the same study. The disease itself is heterogenous, with many different prognostic factors, most notably three pathologic subtypes—epithelial, sarcomatoid, and biphasic—that have different natural histories, and varying responses to treatment. Finally, response assessment is problematic, since pleural-based lesions are difficult to measure accurately and reproducibly. Assessment criteria often vary between trials, making some cross-trial comparisons difficult to interpret. Despite these limitations, in recent years, there has been a surge of optimism regarding systemic treatment of this disease. Several cytotoxic agents have been shown to generate reproducible responses, improve quality of life, or prolong survival in mesothelioma. Drugs with single-agent activity include pemetrexed, raltitrexed, vinorelbine, and vinflunine. The addition of pemetrexed or raltitrexed to cisplatin prolongs survival. The addition of cisplatin to pemetrexed, raltitrexed, gemcitabine, irinotecan, or vinorelbine improves response rate. The combination of pemetrexed plus cisplatin is considered the benchmark front-line regimen for this disease, based on a phase III trial in 456 patients that yielded a response rate of 41% and a median survival of 12.1 months. Vitamin supplementation with folic acid is essential to decrease toxicity, though recent data suggests that there may be an optimum dose of folic acid that should be administered; higher doses may diminish the effectiveness of pemetrexed. There are also several unresolved questions about the duration and timing of treatment with pemetrexed that are the subject of planned clinical trials. It is essential to recognize that the improvements observed with the pemetrexed/cisplatin combination, though real, are still modest. Other active drugs or drug combinations may be more appropriate for specific individuals, and further research is still needed to improve upon these results. Since the majority of mesotheliomas in the United States occur in the elderly, non-cisplatin-containing pemetrexed combinations may be more appropriate for some patients. Now that effective agents have been developed for initial treatment, several classical cytotoxic drugs and many novel agents are being evaluated in the second-line setting. These include drugs targeted against the epidermal growth factor, platelet-derived growth factor, vascular endothelial growth factor, src kinase, histone deacetylase, the proteasome, and mesothelin. Given the progress made in recent years, there is reason to believe that more effective treatments will continue to be developed

Oncolytic measles viruses encoding interferon β and the thyroidal sodium iodide symporter gene for mesothelioma virotherapy

Mesothelioma usually leads to death within 8–14 months of diagnosis. To increase the potency of oncolytic measles viruses (MVs) for mesothelioma therapy, we inserted the interferon β (IFNβ) gene alone or with the human thyroidal sodium iodide symporter (NIS) gene into attenuated MV of the Edmonston lineage. The corresponding mouse IFNβ (mIFNβ) viruses, MV-mIFNβ and MV-mIFNβ-NIS, successfully propagated in human mesothelioma cells, leading to intercellular fusion and cell death. High levels of mIFNβ were detected in the supernatants of the infected cells, and radioiodine uptake was substantial in the cells infected with MV-mIFNβ-NIS. MV with mIFNβ expression triggered CD68-positive immune cell infiltration 2–4 times higher than MV-GFP injected into the tumor site. The numbers of CD31-positive vascular endothelial cells within the tumor were decreased at day 7 after intratumoral injection of MV-mIFNβ or MV-mIFNβ-NIS, but not after MV-GFP and PBS administration. Immunohistochemical analysis showed that MV-mIFNβ changed the microenvironment of the mesothelioma by increasing innate immune cell infiltration and inhibiting tumor angiogenesis. Oncolytic MVs coding for IFNβ effectively retarded growth of human mesotheliomas and prolonged survival time in several mesothelioma tumor models. The results suggest that oncolytic MVs that code for IFNβ and NIS will be potent and versatile agents for the treatment of human mesothelioma

Malignant mesothelioma

Malignant mesothelioma is a fatal asbestos-associated malignancy originating from the lining cells (mesothelium) of the pleural and peritoneal cavities, as well as the pericardium and the tunica vaginalis. The exact prevalence is unknown but it is estimated that mesotheliomas represent less than 1% of all cancers. Its incidence is increasing, with an expected peak in the next 10–20 years. Pleural malignant mesothelioma is the most common form of mesothelioma. Typical presenting features are those of chest pain and dyspnoea. Breathlessness due to a pleural effusion without chest pain is reported in about 30% of patients. A chest wall mass, weight loss, sweating, abdominal pain and ascites (due to peritoneal involvement) are less common presentations. Mesothelioma is directly attributable to occupational asbestos exposure with a history of exposure in over 90% of cases. There is also evidence that mesothelioma may result from both para-occupational exposure and non-occupational "environmental" exposure. Idiopathic or spontaneous mesothelioma can also occur in the absence of any exposure to asbestos, with a spontaneous rate in humans of around one per million. A combination of accurate exposure history, along with examination radiology and pathology are essential to make the diagnosis. Distinguishing malignant from benign pleural disease can be challenging. The most helpful CT findings suggesting malignant pleural disease are 1) a circumferential pleural rind, 2) nodular pleural thickening, 3) pleural thickening of > 1 cm and 4) mediastinal pleural involvement. Involvement of a multidisciplinary team is recommended to ensure prompt and appropriate management, using a framework of radiotherapy, chemotherapy, surgery and symptom palliation with end of life care. Compensation issues must also be considered. Life expectancy in malignant mesothelioma is poor, with a median survival of about one year following diagnosis