Predicting Response to Platin Chemotherapy Agents with Biochemically-inspired Machine Learning

Selection of effective genes that accurately predict chemotherapy response could improve cancer outcomes. We compare optimized gene signatures for cisplatin, carboplatin, and oxaliplatin response in the same cell lines, and respectively validate each with cancer patient data. Supervised support vector machine learning was used to derive gene sets whose expression was related to cell line GI50 values by backwards feature selection with cross-validation. Specific genes and functional pathways distinguishing sensitive from resistant cell lines are identified by contrasting signatures obtained at extreme vs. median GI50 thresholds. Ensembles of gene signatures at different thresholds are combined to reduce dependence on specific GI50 values for predicting drug response. The most accurate gene signatures for each platin are: cisplatin: BARD1, BCL2, BCL2L1, CDKN2C, FAAP24, FEN1, MAP3K1, MAPK13, MAPK3, NFKB1, NFKB2, SLC22A5, SLC31A2, TLR4, TWIST1; carboplatin: AKT1, EIF3K, ERCC1, GNGT1, GSR, MTHFR, NEDD4L, NLRP1, NRAS, RAF1, SGK1, TIGD1, TP53, VEGFB, VEGFC; oxaliplatin: BRAF, FCGR2A, IGF1, MSH2, NAGK, NFE2L2, NQO1, PANK3, SLC47A1, SLCO1B1, UGT1A1. TCGA bladder, ovarian and colorectal cancer patients were used to test cisplatin, carboplatin and oxaliplatin signatures (respectively), resulting in 71.0%, 60.2% and 54.5% accuracy in predicting disease recurrence and 59%, 61% and 72% accuracy in predicting remission. One cisplatin signature predicted 100% of recurrence in non-smoking bladder cancer patients (57% disease-free; N=19), and 79% recurrence in smokers (62% disease-free; N=35). This approach should be adaptable to other studies of chemotherapy response, independent of drug or cancer types

Likely community transmission of COVID-19 infections between neighboring, persistent hotspots in Ontario, Canada

Introduction: This study aimed to produce community-level geo-spatial mapping of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Ontario Canada in near real-time to support decision-making. This was accomplished by area-to-area geostatistical analysis, space-time integration, and spatial interpolation of COVID-19 positive individuals.Methods: COVID-19 cases and locations were curated for geostatistical analyses from March 2020 through June 2021, corresponding to the first, second, and third waves of infections. Daily cases were aggregated according to designated forward sortation area (FSA), and postal codes (PC) in municipal regions Hamilton, Kitchener/Waterloo, London, Ottawa, Toronto, and Windsor/Essex county. Hotspots were identified with area-to-area tests including Getis-Ord Gi*, Global Moran’s I spatial autocorrelation, and Local Moran’s I asymmetric clustering and outlier analyses. Case counts were also interpolated across geographic regions by Empirical Bayesian Kriging, which localizes high concentrations of COVID-19 positive tests, independent of FSA or PC boundaries. The Geostatistical Disease Epidemiology Toolbox, which is freely-available software, automates the identification of these regions and produces digital maps for public health professionals to assist in pandemic management of contact tracing and distribution of other resources. Results: This study provided indicators in real-time of likely, community-level disease transmission through innovative geospatial analyses of COVID-19 incidence data. Municipal and provincial results were validated by comparisons with known outbreaks at long-term care and other high density residences and on farms. PC-level analyses revealed hotspots at higher geospatial resolution than public reports of FSAs, and often sooner. Results of different tests and kriging were compared to determine consistency among hotspot assignments. Concurrent or consecutive hotspots in close proximity suggested potential community transmission of COVID-19 from cluster and outlier analysis of neighboring PCs and by kriging. Results were also stratified by population based-categories (sex, age, and presence/absence of comorbidities).Conclusions: Earlier recognition of hotspots could reduce public health burdens of COVID-19 and expedite contact tracing

Interpretation of mRNA splicing mutations in genetic disease: review of the literature and guidelines for information-theoretical analysis.

The interpretation of genomic variants has become one of the paramount challenges in the post-genome sequencing era. In this review we summarize nearly 20 years of research on the applications of information theory (IT) to interpret coding and non-coding mutations that alter mRNA splicing in rare and common diseases. We compile and summarize the spectrum of published variants analyzed by IT, to provide a broad perspective of the distribution of deleterious natural and cryptic splice site variants detected, as well as those affecting splicing regulatory sequences. Results for natural splice site mutations can be interrogated dynamically with Splicing Mutation Calculator, a companion software program that computes changes in information content for any splice site substitution, linked to corresponding publications containing these mutations. The accuracy of IT-based analysis was assessed in the context of experimentally validated mutations. Because splice site information quantifies binding affinity, IT-based analyses can discern the differences between variants that account for the observed reduced (leaky) versus abolished mRNA splicing. We extend this principle by comparing predicted mutations in natural, cryptic, and regulatory splice sites with observed deleterious phenotypic and benign effects. Our analysis of 1727 variants revealed a number of general principles useful for ensuring portability of these analyses and accurate input and interpretation of mutations. We offer guidelines for optimal use of IT software for interpretation of mRNA splicing mutations

Pathway-extended gene expression signatures integrate novel biomarkers that improve predictions of patient responses to kinase inhibitors

Cancer chemotherapy responses have been related to multiple pharmacogenetic biomarkers, often for the same drug. This study utilizes machine learning to derive multi-gene expression signatures that predict individual patient responses to specific tyrosine kinase inhibitors, including erlotinib, gefitinib, sorafenib, sunitinib, lapatinib and imatinib. Support Vector Machine learning was used to train mathematical models that distinguished sensitivity from resistance to these drugs using a novel systems biology-based approach. This began with expression of genes previously implicated in specific drug responses, then expanded to evaluate genes whose products were related through biochemical pathways and interactions. Optimal pathway-extended support vector machines predicted responses in patients at accuracies of 70% (imatinib), 71% (lapatinib), 83% (sunitinib), 83% (erlotinib), 88% (sorafenib) and 91% (gefitinib). These best performing pathway-extended models demonstrated improved balance predicting both sensitive and resistant patient categories, with many of these genes having a known role in cancer etiology. Ensemble machine learning-based averaging of multiple pathway-extended models derived for an individual drug increased accuracy to \u3e70% for erlotinib, gefitinib, lapatinib, and sorafenib. Through incorporation of novel cancer biomarkers, machine learning-based pathway-extended signatures display strong efficacy predicting both sensitive and resistant patient responses to chemotherapy

Discovery and validation of information theory-based transcription factor and cofactor binding site motifs.

Data from ChIP-seq experiments can derive the genome-wide binding specificities of transcription factors (TFs) and other regulatory proteins. We analyzed 765 ENCODE ChIP-seq peak datasets of 207 human TFs with a novel motif discovery pipeline based on recursive, thresholded entropy minimization. This approach, while obviating the need to compensate for skewed nucleotide composition, distinguishes true binding motifs from noise, quantifies the strengths of individual binding sites based on computed affinity and detects adjacent cofactor binding sites that coordinate with the targets of primary, immunoprecipitated TFs. We obtained contiguous and bipartite information theory-based position weight matrices (iPWMs) for 93 sequence-specific TFs, discovered 23 cofactor motifs for 127 TFs and revealed six high-confidence novel motifs. The reliability and accuracy of these iPWMs were determined via four independent validation methods, including the detection of experimentally proven binding sites, explanation of effects of characterized SNPs, comparison with previously published motifs and statistical analyses. We also predict previously unreported TF coregulatory interactions (e.g. TF complexes). These iPWMs constitute a powerful tool for predicting the effects of sequence variants in known binding sites, performing mutation analysis on regulatory SNPs and predicting previously unrecognized binding sites and target genes

Pathway‐extended gene expression signatures integrate novel biomarkers that improve predictions of patient responses to kinase inhibitors

Cancer chemotherapy responses have been related to multiple pharmacogenetic biomarkers, often for the same drug. This study utilizes machine learning to derive multi‐gene expression signatures that predict individual patient responses to specific tyrosine kinase inhibitors, including erlotinib, gefitinib, sorafenib, sunitinib, lapatinib and imatinib. Support vector machine (SVM) learning was used to train mathematical models that distinguished sensitivity from resistance to these drugs using a novel systems biology‐based approach. This began with expression of genes previously implicated in specific drug responses, then expanded to evaluate genes whose products were related through biochemical pathways and interactions. Optimal pathway‐extended SVMs predicted responses in patients at accuracies of 70% (imatinib), 71% (lapatinib), 83% (sunitinib), 83% (erlotinib), 88% (sorafenib) and 91% (gefitinib). These best performing pathway‐extended models demonstrated improved balance predicting both sensitive and resistant patient categories, with many of these genes having a known role in cancer aetiology. Ensemble machine learning‐based averaging of multiple pathway‐extended models derived for an individual drug increased accuracy to \u3e70% for erlotinib, gefitinib, lapatinib and sorafenib. Through incorporation of novel cancer biomarkers, machine learning‐based pathway‐extended signatures display strong efficacy predicting both sensitive and resistant patient responses to chemotherapy

Improved radiation expression profiling in blood by sequential application of sensitive and specific gene signatures

Purpose. Combinations of expressed genes can discriminate radiation-exposed from normal control blood samples by machine learning based signatures (with 8 to 20% misclassification rates). These signatures can quantify therapeutically-relevant as well as accidental radiation exposures. The prodromal symptoms of Acute Radiation Syndrome (ARS) overlap those present in Influenza and Dengue Fever infections. Surprisingly, these human radiation signatures misclassified gene expression profiles of virally infected samples as false positive exposures. The present study investigates these and other confounders, and then mitigates their impact on signature accuracy. Methods. This study investigated recall by previous and novel radiation signatures independently derived from multiple Gene Expression Omnibus datasets on common and rare non-malignant blood disorders and blood-borne infections (thromboembolism, S. aureus bacteremia, malaria, sickle cell disease, polycythemia vera, and aplastic anemia). Normalized expression levels of signature genes are used as input to machine learning-based classifiers to predict radiation exposure in other hematological conditions. Results. Except for aplastic anemia, these blood-borne disorders modify the normal baseline expression values of genes present in radiation signatures, leading to false-positive misclassification of radiation exposures in 8 to 54% of individuals. Shared changes, predominantly in DNA damage response and apoptosis-related gene transcripts in radiation and confounding hematological conditions, compromise the utility of these signatures for radiation assessment. These confounding conditions (sickle cell disease, thromboembolism, S. aureus bacteremia, malaria) induce neutrophil extracellular traps, initiated by chromatin decondensation, DNA damage response and fragmentation followed by programmed cell death. Riboviral infections (for example, Influenza or Dengue fever) have been proposed to bind and deplete host RNA binding proteins, inducing R-loops in chromatin. R-loops that collide with incoming replication forks can result in incompletely repaired DNA damage, inducing apoptosis and releasing mature virus. To mitigate the effects of confounders, we evaluated predicted radiation-positive samples with novel gene expression signatures derived from radiation-responsive transcripts encoding secreted blood plasma proteins whose expression levels are unperturbed by these conditions. Conclusions. This approach identifies and eliminates misclassified samples with underlying hematological or infectious conditions, leaving only samples with true radiation exposures. Diagnostic accuracy is significantly improved by selecting genes that maximize both sensitivity and specificity in the appropriate tissue using combinations of the best signatures for each of these classes of signatures

Radiation Exposure Determination in a Secure, Cloudbased Online Environment

Rapid sample processing and interpretation of estimated exposures will be critical for triaging exposed individuals after a major radiation incident. The dicentric chromosome (DC) assay assesses absorbed radiation using metaphase cells from blood. The Automated Dicentric Chromosome Identifier and Dose Estimator System (ADCI) identifies DCs and determines radiation doses. This study aimed to broaden accessibility and speed of this system, while protecting data and software integrity. ADCI Online is a secure web-streaming platform accessible worldwide from local servers. Cloud-based systems containing data and software are separated until they are linked for radiation exposure estimation. Dose estimates are identical to ADCI on dedicated computer hardware. Image processing and selection, calibration curve generation, and dose estimation of 9 test samples completed inframes

Predicting ionizing radiation exposure using biochemically-inspired genomic machine learning [version 2; referees: 3 approved]

Background: Gene signatures derived from transcriptomic data using machine learning methods have shown promise for biodosimetry testing. These signatures may not be sufficiently robust for large scale testing, as their performance has not been adequately validated on external, independent datasets. The present study develops human and murine signatures with biochemically-inspired machine learning that are strictly validated using k-fold and traditional approaches. Methods: Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) datasets of exposed human and murine lymphocytes were preprocessed via nearest neighbor imputation and expression of genes implicated in the literature to be responsive to radiation exposure (n=998) were then ranked by Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance (mRMR). Optimal signatures were derived by backward, complete, and forward sequential feature selection using Support Vector Machines (SVM), and validated using k-fold or traditional validation on independent datasets. Results: The best human signatures we derived exhibit k-fold validation accuracies of up to 98% (DDB2,  PRKDC, TPP2, PTPRE, and GADD45A) when validated over 209 samples and traditional validation accuracies of up to 92% (DDB2,  CD8A,  TALDO1,  PCNA,  EIF4G2,  LCN2,  CDKN1A,  PRKCH,  ENO1,  and PPM1D) when validated over 85 samples. Some human signatures are specific enough to differentiate between chemotherapy and radiotherapy. Certain multi-class murine signatures have sufficient granularity in dose estimation to inform eligibility for cytokine therapy (assuming these signatures could be translated to humans). We compiled a list of the most frequently appearing genes in the top 20 human and mouse signatures. More frequently appearing genes among an ensemble of signatures may indicate greater impact of these genes on the performance of individual signatures. Several genes in the signatures we derived are present in previously proposed signatures. Conclusions: Gene signatures for ionizing radiation exposure derived by machine learning have low error rates in externally validated, independent datasets, and exhibit high specificity and granularity for dose estimation

Meeting radiation dosimetry capacity requirements of population-scale exposures by geostatistical sampling.

BACKGROUND: Accurate radiation dose estimates are critical for determining eligibility for therapies by timely triaging of exposed individuals after large-scale radiation events. However, the universal assessment of a large population subjected to a nuclear spill incident or detonation is not feasible. Even with high-throughput dosimetry analysis, test volumes far exceed the capacities of first responders to measure radiation exposures directly, or to acquire and process samples for follow-on biodosimetry testing. AIM: To significantly reduce data acquisition and processing requirements for triaging of treatment-eligible exposures in population-scale radiation incidents. METHODS: Physical radiation plumes modelled nuclear detonation scenarios of simulated exposures at 22 US locations. Models assumed only location of the epicenter and historical, prevailing wind directions/speeds. The spatial boundaries of graduated radiation exposures were determined by targeted, multistep geostatistical analysis of small population samples. Initially, locations proximate to these sites were randomly sampled (generally 0.1% of population). Empirical Bayesian kriging established radiation dose contour levels circumscribing these sites. Densification of each plume identified critical locations for additional sampling. After repeated kriging and densification, overlapping grids between each pair of contours of successive plumes were compared based on their diagonal Bray-Curtis distances and root-mean-square deviations, which provided criteria ( RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: We modeled 30 scenarios, including 22 urban/high-density and 2 rural/low-density scenarios under various weather conditions. Multiple (3-10) rounds of sampling and kriging were required for the dosimetry maps to converge, requiring between 58 and 347 samples for different scenarios. On average, 70±10% of locations where populations are expected to receive an exposure ≥2Gy were identified. Under sub-optimal sampling conditions, the number of iterations and samples were increased, and accuracy was reduced. Geostatistical mapping limits the number of required dose assessments, the time required, and radiation exposure to first responders. Geostatistical analysis will expedite triaging of acute radiation exposure in population-scale nuclear events