Finite Element Model updating using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo techniques

Abstract: Bayesian techniques have been widely used in finite element model (FEM) updating. The attraction of these techniques is their ability to quantify and characterise the uncertainties associated with dynamic systems. In order to update an FEM, the Bayesian formulation requires the evaluation of the posterior distribution function. For large systems this function is difficult to solve analytically. In such cases the use of sampling techniques often provides a good approximation of this posterior distribution function. The hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) method is a classic sampling method used to approximate high-dimensional complex problems. However, the acceptance rate (AR) of HMC is sensitive to the system size, as well as to the time step used to evaluate the molecular dynamics (MD) trajectory. The shadow HMC technique (SHMC), which is a modified version of the HMC method, was developed to improve sampling for large-system sizes by drawing from a modified shadow Hamiltonian function. However, the SHMC algorithm performance is limited by the use of a non-separable modified Hamiltonian function. Moreover, two additional parameters are required for the sampling procedure, which could be computationally expensive. To overcome these weaknesses the separable shadow HMC (S2HMC) method has been introduced. This method uses a transformation to a different parameter space to generate samples. In this paper we analyse the application and performance of these algorithms, including the parameters used in each algorithm, their limitations and the effects on model updating. The accuracy and the efficiency of the algorithms are demonstrated by updating the finite element models of two real mechanical structures. It is observed that the S2HMC algorithm has a number of advantages over the other algorithms; for example, the S2HMC algorithm is able to efficiently sample at larger time steps while using fewer parameters than the other algorithms

Malaria control – two years' use of insecticide treated bednets compared with insecticide house spraying in Kwazulu-Natal

Objectives_ The objective of this study was to produce data indicating whether insecticide-treated bednets should replac insecticide house spraying as a malaria control method in South Africa_ We report 2 years of preliminary data on malaria incidence comparing areas receiving insecticidetreated bednets and those subjected to house spraying in northern KwaZulu-Natal.Design, setting and subjects. In order to measure significant reductions in malaria incidence between the two interventions, a geographical information system (GIS) was used to identify and create seven pairs of geographical blood ; (areas) in the malaria high-risk areas of Ndumu and Makani in Ingwavuma magisterial district, KwaZulu-Natal, Individual blocks were then randomly allocated to either insecticide-treated bednets or house spraying with deltamethrin. Malaria cases were either routinely recorded by surveillance agents at home or were reported to the nearest health facility_Results and conclusions. The results show that 2 years' use of insecticide-treated bednets by communities in Ndumu and Makanis, KwaZulu-Natal, significantly reduced the malaria incidence both in 1997 (rate ratio (RR) =0_879, 95% confidence interval (Cn 0.80 - 0.95, P =0.04) and in 1998 (RR = 0.667, Cl 0_61 - 0.72, P = 0.0001). Using a t-test, these significant reductions were further confirmed by an assessment of the rate of change between 1996 and 1998, showing a 16% reduction in malaria incidence in blocks using bednets and an increase of 45% in sprayed areas (t = 2.534, P = 0.026 (12 df». In order to decide whether bednets : should replace house spraying in South Africa, we need more : data on the efficacy of treated bednets, their long-term acceptability and the cost of the two interventions

Mechanism of enhanced freshness formulation in optimizing antioxidant retention of gold kiwifruit (Actinidia chinensis) harvested at two maturity stages

Kiwifruit exhibits a climacteric ripening pattern and has as an extremely perishable nature. Considering that high perishability leads to a loss in antioxidants and overall nutritional quality. This study aimed to examine the efficacy of enhanced freshness formulation (EFF), a hexanal-based formulation containing antioxidants such as geraniol, α-tocopherol and ascorbic acid, on maintaining the bioactive compounds of gold kiwifruit (cv. ‘Y368’) harvested at two maturity stages. Kiwifruits were treated with three treatments, namely, control (untreated fruit), 0.01 and 0.02% (v/v) EFF. Fruits were treated with 8 weeks of cold storage at 0°C and 90% relative humidity, then transferred to 20°C for 8 days. Three bioactive compounds (ascorbic acid, total phenolics and flavonoids), antioxidant capacities using DPPH and FRAP assays, polyphenol oxidase, ascorbate oxidase, phenylalanine and tyrosine ammonia lyase enzyme activities were evaluated. The results showed that EFF significantly (p < 0.05) influenced bioactive compounds, antioxidant capacities and the activity of enzymes involved in the synthesis and oxidation of bioactive compounds. The maturity stage significantly influenced the content of bioactive compounds. Later harvested kiwifruit had greater content of bioactive compounds, compared to earlier harvested kiwifruit. The total phenolic content was 0.77, 1.09 and 1.22 mg GAE g−1 FW for control, 0.01 and 0.02% EFF, respectively. The FRAP antioxidant concentration was 0.76, 0.91 and 0.96 μmol Fe (II) g−1 FW for control, 0.01 and 0.02% EFF. The findings illustrate the capacity of EFF to optimize bioactive compounds and storability of kiwifruit during postharvest storage

Discrepancy between Mtb-specific IFN-γ and IgG responses in HIV-positive people with low CD4 counts

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is a leading infectious cause of death worldwide and treating latent TB infection (LTBI) with TB preventative therapy is a global priority. This study aimed to measure interferon gamma (IFN-γ) release assay (IGRA) positivity (the current reference standard for LTBI diagnosis) and Mtb-specific IgG antibodies in otherwise healthy adults without HIV and those living with HIV (PLWH). Methods: One-hundred and eighteen adults (65 without HIV and 53 antiretroviral-naïve PLWH), from a peri-urban setting in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa were enrolled. IFN-γ released following stimulation with ESAT-6/CFP-10 peptides and plasma IgG antibodies specific for multiple Mtb antigens were measured using the QuantiFERON-TB Gold Plus (QFT) and customized Luminex assays, respectively. The relationships between QFT status, relative concentrations of anti-Mtb IgG, HIV-status, sex, age and CD4 count were analysed. Findings: Older age, male sex and higher CD4 count were independently associated with QFT positivity (p = 0.045, 0.05 and 0.002 respectively). There was no difference in QFT status between people with and without HIV infection (58% and 65% respectively, p = 0.06), but within CD4 count quartiles, people with HIV had higher QFT positivity than people without HIV (p = 0.008 (2nd quartile), <0.0001 (3rd quartile)). Concentrations of Mtb-specific IFN-γ were lowest, and relative concentrations of Mtb-specific IgGs were highest in PLWH in the lowest CD4 quartile. Interpretation: These results suggest that the QFT assay underestimates LTBI among immunosuppressed people with HIV and Mtb-specific IgG may be a useful alternative biomarker for Mtb infection. Further evaluation of how Mtb-specific antibodies can be leveraged to improve LTBI diagnosis is warranted, particularly in HIV-endemic areas. Fundings: NIH, AHRI, SHIP: SA-MRC and SANTHE

Pathways from witnessing community violence to mental health problems among South African adolescents

The intersection of violence exposure and mental health problems is a public health crisis for South African (SA) adolescents. Understanding the impact of community violence on adolescent mental health can inform future interventions. Objectives. To assess pathways between community violence exposure and internalising and externalising problems in SA adolescents receiving mental healthcare, and the roles of parent and peer relationships in these associations. Methods. Participants (N=120 parent-adolescent pairs) were recruited from four mental health clinics in Western Cape Province to participate in a pilot test of a family-based HIV prevention study. Adolescents reported on their exposure to community violence, parental attachment, peer support of risk behaviour, and mental health. Parents reported on adolescents' internalising and externalising mental health problems. Participants received transport money (ZAR30 = USD3) and a shopping voucher or cash (ZAR50 = USD5) for their time. Results. Adolescents were 12 - 18 years old (mean (standard deviation) 14.39 (1.82) years), 53% were male, and 67% and 33% reported black African and mixed-race ethnicity, respectively. Parents were 94% female and reported an average monthly income of ZAR3 973 (USD397)

Observation of the 0+ 2 and γ bands in 98Ru, and shape coexistence in the Ru isotopes

Excited states in 98Ru were investigated using γ-ray spectroscopy following the β-decay of 98Rh, and via the 100Ru(p,t) reaction. Combining the results from the two experiments, two states were revised to have spin-parity of 4+ and subsequently assigned to the 02+ and “γ” bands, respectively. The observed structures in 98Ru are suggested to be deformed and rotational, rather than spherical and vibrational, and fit well into the systematics of these excitations in the Ru isotopes. The 02+ excitation is suggested as a shape coexisting configuration. This observation eliminates some of the last remaining candidates for nearly harmonic vibrational nuclei in the Z≈50 region. Beyond-mean-field calculations are presented that support shape coexistence throughout the Ru isotopes with N=52–62, and suggest a smooth evolution of the shape

Effect of artemether-lumefantrine policy and improved vector control on malaria burden in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Between 1995 and 2000, KwaZulu–Natal province, South Africa, experienced a marked increase in Plasmodium falciparum malaria, fuelled by pyrethroid and sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance. In response, vector control was strengthened and artemether-lumefantrine (AL) was deployed in the first Ministry of Health artemisinin-based combination treatment policy in Africa. In South Africa, effective vector and parasite control had historically ensured low-intensity malaria transmission. Malaria is diagnosed definitively and treatment is provided free of charge in reasonably accessible public-sector health-care facilities

Effect of Artemether-Lumefantrine Policy and Improved Vector Control on Malaria Burden in KwaZulu–Natal, South Africa

BACKGROUND: Between 1995 and 2000, KwaZulu–Natal province, South Africa, experienced a marked increase in Plasmodium falciparum malaria, fuelled by pyrethroid and sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance. In response, vector control was strengthened and artemether-lumefantrine (AL) was deployed in the first Ministry of Health artemisinin-based combination treatment policy in Africa. In South Africa, effective vector and parasite control had historically ensured low-intensity malaria transmission. Malaria is diagnosed definitively and treatment is provided free of charge in reasonably accessible public-sector health-care facilities. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We reviewed four years of malaria morbidity and mortality data at four sentinel health-care facilities within KwaZulu–Natal's malaria-endemic area. In the year following improved vector control and implementation of AL treatment, malaria-related admissions and deaths both declined by 89%, and outpatient visits decreased by 85% at the sentinel facilities. By 2003, malaria-related outpatient cases and admissions had fallen by 99%, and malaria-related deaths had decreased by 97%. There was a concomitant marked and sustained decline in notified malaria throughout the province. No serious adverse events were associated causally with AL treatment in an active sentinel pharmacovigilance survey. In a prospective study with 42 d follow up, AL cured 97/98 (99%) and prevented gametocyte developing in all patients. Consistent with the findings of focus group discussions, a household survey found self-reported adherence to the six-dose AL regimen was 96%. CONCLUSION: Together with concurrent strengthening of vector control measures, the antimalarial treatment policy change to AL in KwaZulu–Natal contributed to a marked and sustained decrease in malaria cases, admissions, and deaths, by greatly improving clinical and parasitological cure rates and reducing gametocyte carriage