Testing the Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model - Updated

We find favorable evidence for the textbook equilibrium exchange rate model of Stockman (1987) using Blanchard and Quah’s (1989) decomposition. Real shocks are shown to account for more than 90 percent of movements in the real exchange rate between Brazil and the US, and for more than half of nominal exchange rate changes. Impulse response functions also suggest that real shocks alter these countries’relative prices.Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model; Blanchard and Quah’s Decomposition

Is There a Brazilian J-Curve?

We show that Marshall-Lerner condition holds for Brazilian trade balance, and discard a J-curve in the short run. We present these results using impulse-response functions in a variety of (linear and nonlinear) models, including Markov-switching, vector error-correction models.

Travel hysteresis in the US current account after the mid-1980s

Following the real appreciation of the US dollar in the first half of the 1980s, travel expenditures in the current account soared. Employing standard regression techniques as well as Markov-switching regime analysis we show that such expenditures did not return to their pre-appreciation levels thereafter. The permanent increase suggests the presence of travel hysteresis in the US current account after the mid-1980s.

Big Mac parity, income, and trade

Nontraded inputs account for the lion's share of a Big Mac price (Ong 1997, Parsley and Wei 2003). Major departures from Big Mac PPP may then be explained by the Balassa-Samuelson income differences effect, as shown e.g. by Click (1996). But it has been argued that Click''s result is not robust to changing estimation methods, sample of countries, and time period (Fujiki and Kitamura 2003). Here we address a key theoretical distinction between high and low income countries for the Balassa-Samuelson effect to be properly evaluated. Since this distinction is missing in Click''s analysis, we revisit his finding and take a sample which is distinct (in terms of both set of countries and time period) to meet Fujiki-Kitamura''s criticism. We find that distinguishing high from low income makes no harm to Click''s result. But we also find that openness to trade (viewed as a proxy for trade barriers) helps to explain departures from Big Mac PPP.

Travel Hysteresis in the US Current Account After the Mid-1980s

Following the real appreciation of the US dollar in the first half of the 1980s, travel expenditures in the current account soared. Employing standard regression techniques as well as Markov-switching regime analysis we show that such expenditures did not return to their pre- appreciation levels thereafter. The permanent increase suggests the presence of travel hysteresis in the US current account after the mid- 1980s.