The dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa.

Although vaccination has almost eliminated measles in parts of the world, the disease remains a major killer in some high birth rate countries of the Sahel. On the basis of measles dynamics for industrialized countries, high birth rate regions should experience regular annual epidemics. Here, however, we show that measles epidemics in Niger are highly episodic, particularly in the capital Niamey. Models demonstrate that this variability arises from powerful seasonality in transmission-generating high amplitude epidemics-within the chaotic domain of deterministic dynamics. In practice, this leads to frequent stochastic fadeouts, interspersed with irregular, large epidemics. A metapopulation model illustrates how increased vaccine coverage, but still below the local elimination threshold, could lead to increasingly variable major outbreaks in highly seasonally forced contexts. Such erratic dynamics emphasize the importance both of control strategies that address build-up of susceptible individuals and efforts to mitigate the impact of large outbreaks when they occur

SerpinB2 regulates stromal remodelling and local invasion in pancreatic cancer

Pancreatic cancer has a devastating prognosis, with an overall 5-year survival rate of ~8%, restricted treatment options and characteristic molecular heterogeneity. SerpinB2 expression, particularly in the stromal compartment, is associated with reduced metastasis and prolonged survival in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and our genomic analysis revealed that SERPINB2 is frequently deleted in PDAC. We show that SerpinB2 is required by stromal cells for normal collagen remodelling in vitro, regulating fibroblast interaction and engagement with collagen in the contracting matrix. In a pancreatic cancer allograft model, co-injection of PDAC cancer cells and SerpinB2(-/-) mouse embryonic fibroblasts (MEFs) resulted in increased tumour growth, aberrant remodelling of the extracellular matrix (ECM) and increased local invasion from the primary tumour. These tumours also displayed elevated proteolytic activity of the primary biochemical target of SerpinB2-urokinase plasminogen activator (uPA). In a large cohort of patients with resected PDAC, we show that increasing uPA mRNA expression was significantly associated with poorer survival following pancreatectomy. This study establishes a novel role for SerpinB2 in the stromal compartment in PDAC invasion through regulation of stromal remodelling and highlights the SerpinB2/uPA axis for further investigation as a potential therapeutic target in pancreatic cancer

Transit Photometry as an Exoplanet Discovery Method

Photometry with the transit method has arguably been the most successful exoplanet discovery method to date. A short overview about the rise of that method to its present status is given. The method's strength is the rich set of parameters that can be obtained from transiting planets, in particular in combination with radial velocity observations; the basic principles of these parameters are given. The method has however also drawbacks, which are the low probability that transits appear in randomly oriented planet systems, and the presence of astrophysical phenomena that may mimic transits and give rise to false detection positives. In the second part we outline the main factors that determine the design of transit surveys, such as the size of the survey sample, the temporal coverage, the detection precision, the sample brightness and the methods to extract transit events from observed light curves. Lastly, an overview over past, current and future transit surveys is given. For these surveys we indicate their basic instrument configuration and their planet catch, including the ranges of planet sizes and stellar magnitudes that were encountered. Current and future transit detection experiments concentrate primarily on bright or special targets, and we expect that the transit method remains a principal driver of exoplanet science, through new discoveries to be made and through the development of new generations of instruments.Comment: Review chapte

The Cosmological Baryon Density from the Deuterium Abundance at a redshift z = 3.57

We present a measurement of the deuterium to hydrogen ratio in a quasar absorption system at redshift z = 3.57 towards QSO 1937-1009. We use a two component fit, with redshifts determined from unsaturated metal lines, to fit the hydrogen and deuterium features simultaneously. We find a low value of D/H = 2.3 \pm 0.6 \times 10^{-5}, which does not agree with other measurements of high D/H (Songaila et al. 1994, Carswell et al. 1994). The absorption system is very metal poor, with metallicities less than 1/100 solar. Standard models of chemical evolution show the astration of deuterium is limited to a few percent from primordial for systems this metal-poor, so we believe our value represents the primordial one. Using predictions of standard big-bang nucleosynthesis and measurements of the cosmic microwave background, our measurement gives the density of baryons in units of the critical density, $\Omega_b h^2 = 0.024 \pm 0.006$, where H_0 = 100 h km s^{-1] Mpc^{-1}.Comment: 10 pages, 2 Figures, also available at http://nately.ucsd.edu/ ; submitted to Natur

Radiation burnthrough measurements to infer opacity at conditions close to the solar radiative zone–convective zone boundary

Recent measurements at the Sandia National Laboratory of the x-ray transmission of iron plasma have inferred opacities much higher than predicted by theory, which casts doubt on modeling of iron x-ray radiative opacity at conditions close to the solar convective zone-radiative zone boundary. An increased radiative opacity of the solar mixture, in particular iron, is a possible explanation for the disagreement in the position of the solar convection zone-radiative zone boundary as measured by helioseismology and predicted by modeling using the most recent photosphere analysis of the elemental composition. Here, we present data from radiation burnthrough experiments, which do not support a large increase in the opacity of iron at conditions close to the base of the solar convection zone and provide a constraint on the possible values of both the mean opacity and the opacity in the x-ray range of the Sandia experiments. The data agree with opacity values from current state-of-the-art opacity modeling using the CASSANDRA opacity code

Rapid tests and urine sampling techniques for the diagnosis of urinary tract infection (UTI) in children under five years: a systematic review

Background: Urinary tract infection (UTI) is one of the most common sources of infection in children under five. Prompt diagnosis and treatment is important to reduce the risk of renal scarring. Rapid, cost-effective, methods of UTI diagnosis are required as an alternative to culture. Methods: We conducted a systematic review to determine the diagnostic accuracy of rapid tests for detecting UTI in children under five years of age. Results: The evidence supports the use of dipstick positive for both leukocyte esterase and nitrite (pooled LR+ = 28.2, 95% CI: 17.3, 46.0) or microscopy positive for both pyuria and bacteriuria (pooled LR+ = 37.0, 95% CI: 11.0, 125.9) to rule in UTI. Similarly dipstick negative for both LE and nitrite (Pooled LR- = 0.20, 95% CI: 0.16, 0.26) or microscopy negative for both pyuria and bacteriuria (Pooled LR- = 0.11, 95% CI: 0.05, 0.23) can be used to rule out UTI. A test for glucose showed promise in potty-trained children. However, all studies were over 30 years old. Further evaluation of this test may be useful. Conclusion: Dipstick negative for both LE and nitrite or microscopic analysis negative for both pyuria and bacteriuria of a clean voided urine, bag, or nappy/pad specimen may reasonably be used to rule out UTI. These patients can then reasonably be excluded from further investigation, without the need for confirmatory culture. Similarly, combinations of positive tests could be used to rule in UTI, and trigger further investigation

Pathogenic variants in the paired-related homeobox 1 gene (PRRX1) cause craniosynostosis with incomplete penetrance

Purpose Studies previously implicated PRRX1 in craniofacial development, including demonstration of murine Prrx1 expression in the pre-osteogenic cells of the cranial sutures. We investigated the role of heterozygous missense and loss-of-function variants in PRRX1 associated with craniosynostosis. Methods Trio-based genome, exome or targeted sequencing were used to screen PRRX1 in patients with craniosynostosis; immunofluorescence analyses were used to assess nuclear localization of wild-type and mutant proteins. Results Genome sequencing identified 2 of 9 sporadically affected individuals with syndromic/multisuture craniosynostosis who were heterozygous for rare/undescribed variants in PRRX1. Exome or targeted sequencing of PRRX1 revealed a further 9/1449 patients with craniosynostosis harboring deletions or rare heterozygous variants within the homeodomain. By collaboration, seven additional individuals (four families) were identified with putatively pathogenic PRRX1 variants. Immunofluorescence analyses showed that missense variants within the PRRX1 homeodomain cause abnormal nuclear localization. Of patients with variants considered likely pathogenic, bicoronal or other multi-suture synostosis was present in 11/17 (65% of the cases). Pathogenic variants were inherited from unaffected relatives in many instances, yielding a 12.5% penetrance estimate for craniosynostosis. Conclusion This work supports a key role for PRRX1 in cranial suture development and shows that haploinsufficiency of PRRX1 is a relatively frequent cause of craniosynostosis

A review of elliptical and disc galaxy structure, and modern scaling laws

A century ago, in 1911 and 1913, Plummer and then Reynolds introduced their models to describe the radial distribution of stars in `nebulae'. This article reviews the progress since then, providing both an historical perspective and a contemporary review of the stellar structure of bulges, discs and elliptical galaxies. The quantification of galaxy nuclei, such as central mass deficits and excess nuclear light, plus the structure of dark matter halos and cD galaxy envelopes, are discussed. Issues pertaining to spiral galaxies including dust, bulge-to-disc ratios, bulgeless galaxies, bars and the identification of pseudobulges are also reviewed. An array of modern scaling relations involving sizes, luminosities, surface brightnesses and stellar concentrations are presented, many of which are shown to be curved. These 'redshift zero' relations not only quantify the behavior and nature of galaxies in the Universe today, but are the modern benchmark for evolutionary studies of galaxies, whether based on observations, N-body-simulations or semi-analytical modelling. For example, it is shown that some of the recently discovered compact elliptical galaxies at 1.5 < z < 2.5 may be the bulges of modern disc galaxies.Comment: Condensed version (due to Contract) of an invited review article to appear in "Planets, Stars and Stellar Systems"(www.springer.com/astronomy/book/978-90-481-8818-5). 500+ references incl. many somewhat forgotten, pioneer papers. Original submission to Springer: 07-June-201

A ‘modified de Gramont’ regimen of fluorouracil, alone and with oxaliplatin, for advanced colorectal cancer

The standard de Gramont (dG) regimen of fortnightly leucovorin, bolus fluorouracil and 22-h infusion of fluorouracil, d1+2, and the same regimen plus oxaliplatin, are effective but also cumbersome. We therefore present simplified ‘Modified de Gramont’ (MdG) regimens. Forty-six advanced gastrointestinal cancer patients entered a dose-exploring study of MdG, including an expanded cohort of colorectal cancer patients at optimum dose. Treatment (fortnightly) comprised: 2-h i.v.i. leucovorin (350 mg d,l-LV or 175 mg l-LV, not adjusted for patient surface area); bolus fluorouracil (400 mg m−2), then ambulatory 46-h fluorouracil infusion (2000–3600 mg m−2, cohort escalation). Subsequently, 62 colorectal patients (25 unpretreated; 37 fluorouracil-resistant) received MdG plus oxaliplatin (OxMdG) 85 mg m−2. Fluorouracil pharmacokinetics during MdG were compared with dG. The optimum fluorouracil doses for MdG alone were determined as 400 mg m−2 bolus + 2800 mg m−2 46-h infusion. A lower dose of 400 mg m−2 bolus + 2400 mg m−2 infusion which, like dG produces minimal toxicity, was chosen for the OxMdG combination. Fluorouracil exposure (AUC0–48 h) at this lower dose is equivalent to dG. With OxMdG, grade 3–4 toxicity was rare (neutropenia 2.8% cycles; vomiting or diarrhoea <1% cycles), but despite this there were two infection-associated deaths. Oxaliplatin was omitted for cumulative neurotoxicity in 17 out of 62 patients. Objective responses in colorectal cancer patients were: 1st-line MdG (22 assessable): PR=36%, NC=32%, PD=32%. 1st-line OxMdG (24 assessable): CR/PR=72%; NC=20%; PD=8%; 2nd line OxMdG (34 assessable): PR=12%; NC=38%; PD=50%. MdG and OxMdG are convenient and well-tolerated. OxMdG was particularly active as 1st-line treatment of advanced colorectal cancer. Both regimens are being further evaluated in the current UK MRC phase III trial