Risky Time Driven Activity Based Costing in a Medical center: A Development, implementation and simulation based optimization approach

Nowadays, with the development of enterprises andincreases in competitions, management needs to do more actual investigation andin-depth analysis. Meanwhile, practical information about the service cost ofeach client/product and determining free capacity of resources are highlydesirable, in order to detect which of clients/products are more profitable.There are several available costing systems in the literature; however till thepresent time, none of them are considered to have a probabilistic nature associatedwith a business environment. In this paper, a standard time driven activitybased costing (TDABC) is combined with a simulation model, proposing a novel algorithmcalled Risky TDABC. The three risky factors which are considered in this study are:1.Resource capacity 2.Estimated activity time 3.The required quantity of an activity.Additionally, the idle time of each resource is also determined, an aspectwhich has not been considered in the standard TDABC system. Therefore, byapplying a resource configuration management in a medical center, differentscenarios are developed and compared to each other, finding the best-knownalternative through a simulation based optimization approach. The obtained resultsare apparently found to be more actual and reliable. The proposed model is finallyvalidated and successfully implemented in a healthcare center department

Optimizing Cash-Flow-at-Risk in Construction Projects: A Cost Reduction Approach

Project managers normally are facing with difficulties behind management of project cash flow, which requires distinguished methods and appropriate tools to manage negative cash flows. Cash-Flow-at-Risk (CFaR) model is an efficient approach to predict cash flow trend. In this study, all risk factors affecting project management environment have incorporated to predict an accurate project cash flow. Then, a response surface method (RSM) is applied to determine optimal level of risk. The results have successfully implemented through a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method

Finding Optimum Resource Allocation to Optimizing Construction Project Time/Cost through Combination of Artificial Agents CPM and GA

In order to plan a construction project, computer simulations are frequently used to predict the performance of the operations through simulating the process flows and resource selection procedure. However, for finding the optimum resource allocation of the construction activities, all possible combinations must be tested through simulation study. If the number of activities and allocated resources are high, the numbers of these combinations become too large, then this process would not be economical task to do. Therefore, simulation analysis is no longer considered through an optimization technique. Using of Genetic Algorithms (GA) is one of the simple and widely used tools for optimizing heavy intensive engineering problems which can covers various areas of research. With keeping this in mind, this study presented a new hybrid model which integrated agent based modeling with CPM and GA to find out the best resource allocation combination for the construction project’s activities. Based on the results obtained, this new hybrid model can eectively find the optimum resource allocation with respect to time, cost, or any combination of time-cost

Developing a Mathematical Model for Scheduling and Determining Success Probability of Research Projects Considering Complex-Fuzzy Networks

In project management context, time management is one of the most important factors affecting project success. This paper proposes a new method to solve research project scheduling problems (RPSP) containing Fuzzy Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique (FGERT) networks. Through the deliverables of this method, a proper estimation of project completion time (PCT) and success probability can be achieved. So algorithms were developed to cover all features of the problem based on three main parameters “duration, occurrence probability, and success probability.” These developed algorithms were known as PR-FGERT (Parallel and Reversible-Fuzzy GERT networks). The main provided framework includes simplifying the network of project and taking regular steps to determine PCT and success probability. Simplifications include (1) equivalent making of parallel and series branches in fuzzy network considering the concepts of probabilistic nodes, (2) equivalent making of delay or reversible-to-itself branches and impact of changing the parameters of time and probability based on removing related branches, (3) equivalent making of simple and complex loops, and (4) an algorithm that was provided to resolve no-loop fuzzy network, after equivalent making. Finally, the performance of models was compared with existing methods. The results showed proper and real performance of models in comparison with existing methods

Application of risk analysis within value management: a case study in dam engineering

Nowadays, considering uncertainties and complexities in dam engineering problems, implementation of risk analysis is essential more than before. On the other hand, reliability analysis is an efficient approach which can be applied in order to quantify the identified risks. By applying such analyses, a designer can therefore define and develop different scenarios in order to evaluate the effect of identified risks. The risk management process can be further implemented within a value management cycle where the potential alternatives should be evaluated and finally the best-known alternative must be selected. In order to measure the efficiency of risk analysis approach in a dam, a case study is studied and then implemented. The result of the reliability analysis for the piping phase shows a conservative approach with a low risk during the dam design process. Based on the value analysis, two different scenarios are then developed. In the first scenario, the piping phase is considered as a high risk issue; and in the second scenario, the risk is considered as its minimum acceptable threshold. Based on the obtained results, this can be summarized: utilizing risk analysis for improvement of the decision-making process can be efficiently defined and developed as a fundamental strategy in water resource projects

Adaptive Project Monitoring and Control with Variable Reviewing Intervals

This paper presents a managerial project control scheme in which the time between the control points is not fixed but instead is a function of the distance between the planned and the current performance levels. Varying the reviewing interval improves the efficiency of the project monitoring and control process and allows project managers to obtain the required information more quickly. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme, a systematic computational experiment is carried out. Besides, a practical case study is given to illustrate the applicability of the proposed scheme. The results reveal the satisfactory performance of the adaptive control scheme

Application of Fuzzy Modelling to Predict Construction Projects Cash Flow

Construction project managers are always looking for methods for forecasting future projects and preventing of potential delays in the project. One of the most crucial requirements of construction project managers and financial planners is awareness of project cash flow and financial status. On the other hand, the unique properties of construction projects with uncertainties such as activity duration, the variability of resources, material costs and also ambiguity in the employer’s payments are factors that have an effect on the correct prediction of project cash flow. Hence, the project team should examine project cash flow under uncertainty environment. There are many approaches for considering uncertainty such as fuzzy sets, interval theory, rough and grey system. But the most well-known approach is fuzzy sets which has wide applications in engineering and management. Hence in this paper, we proposed a new method for forecasting project cash flow under fuzzy environment. Finally, the proposed method was applied on an “Engineering, Procurement and Construction” (EPC) project and it is demonstrated that the proposed model has a high performance in the prediction of project cash flow

Manufacturing Performance Measurement Using Fuzzy Multi-Attribute Utility Theory and Z-Number

The Earned Value Management (EVM) has been extensively employed in the literature for analysing the schedule and cost performance indexes. However, the effects of risk factors on the project success have been previously ignored in the project management conventional context. In this paper, a well-organized project control and monitoring system is developed by incorporating the EVM basic principles, risk analysis, and utility theory for improving the performance of manufacturing systems. Weight values corresponding to the schedule performance index (SPI), the cost performance index (CPI), and the risk performance index (RPI) are calculated based on expert judgments using Z-number and Analytic Hierarchy Process (Z-AHP). Finally, a Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) and Multi-Objective Linear Programming (MOLP) under fuzzy condition are utilized to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach. Sensitivity analysis indicated the risk performance is the most sensitive when compared with the schedule and the cost index. The approach given in this paper can be further employed by both academicians and managers in heavy intensive manufacturing systems

Project scheduling and forecasting by laws of physical movement

Measuring actual project progress and comparing it with the planned time schedule is essential in controlling of a project. The outcome of the latter follows the s-curve diagram, which compares actual progress with the planned amount and finally analyzing any gap between them to draw directions for project scheduling. However, final duration of the project cannot be either estimated or predicted through conventional methods. The new method, using Rules of kinematics, can calculate the final duration of the project. This novel approach is successfully implemented on a construction project. The first objective in new method is forecasting final duration of the project, finding equation path and draw a new s-curve diagram for actual status during the execution process. The second objective is to evaluate schedule performance of the project and report the status of the project at each period which is a useful tool for managers

Interpretive structural modeling in Earned Value Management

The primary purpose of the current study is introducing a comprehensive approach to identify the relationship among different criteria in Earned Value Management (EVM). EVM is a well-known approach in project management context that can monitor schedule and cost performance indexes in projects simultaneously. The EVM detects current project performances and also predicts at completion costs of the project. In this study, employing Interpretive Structural Modelling, interactions which exist among affecting factors on EVM’s success are determined. First, all of the practical factors on EVM are determined and categorized into four main clusters; then the most effective ones are separated from the clusters; eventually, ISM is used based on eleven ultimate critical criteria. The results demonstrate that “Instability in the construction market” and “Macroeconomic indicators” are the most influencing factors affecting the EVM. Finally, a novel method for enhancing the performance of conventional EVM is presented. The proposed approach would be highly applicable for engineering managers who are willing to promote the current performance of the systems. Most studies have been previously carried out on the applications of the EVM in terms of improving final cost and total duration elapsed whereas there is not any particular study on the EVM issue which has stated the key factors that influence the EVM and lasting effect on the project performance. It should be noted that the proposed approach can be employed through the life cycle of any project particularly in construction projects