Bias correction factors for near-Earth asteroids

Knowledge of the population size and physical characteristics (albedo, size, and rotation rate) of near-Earth asteroids (NEA's) is biased by observational selection effects which are functions of the population's intrinsic properties and the size of the telescope, detector sensitivity, and search strategy used. The NEA population is modeled in terms of orbital and physical elements: a, e, i, omega, Omega, M, albedo, and diameter, and an asteroid search program is simulated using actual telescope pointings of right ascension, declination, date, and time. The position of each object in the model population is calculated at the date and time of each telescope pointing. The program tests to see if that object is within the field of view (FOV = 8.75 degrees) of the telescope and above the limiting magnitude (V = +1.65) of the film. The effect of the starting population on the outcome of the simulation's discoveries is compared to the actual discoveries in order to define a most probable starting population

A population-based audit of surgical practice and outcomes of oncoplastic breast conservations in Scotland – an analysis of 589 patients

Introduction: Current evidence for oncoplastic breast conservation (OBC) is based on single institutional series. Therefore, we carried out a population-based audit of OBC practice and outcomes in Scotland. Methods: A predefined database of patients treated with OBC was completed retrospectively in all breast units practicing OBC in Scotland. Results: 589 patients were included from 11 units. Patients were diagnosed between September 2005 and March 2017. High volume units performed a mean of 19.3 OBCs per year vs. low volume units who did 11.1 (p = 0.012). 23 different surgical techniques were used. High volume units offered a wider range of techniques (8–14) than low volume units (3–6) (p = 0.004). OBC was carried out as a joint operation involving a breast and a plastic surgeon in 389 patients. Immediate contralateral symmetrisation rate was significantly higher when OBC was performed as a joint operation (70.7% vs. not joint operations: 29.8%; p < 0.001). The incomplete excision rate was 10.4% and was significantly higher after surgery for invasive lobular carcinoma (18.9%; p = 0.0292), but was significantly lower after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (3%; p = 0.031). 9.2% of patients developed major complications requiring hospital admission. Overall the complication rate was significantly lower after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (p = 0.035). The 5 year local recurrence rate was 2.7%, which was higher after OBC for DCIS (8.3%) than invasive ductal cancer (1.6%; p = 0.026). 5-year disease-free survival was 91.7%, overall survival was 93.8%, and cancer-specific survival was 96.1%. Conclusion: This study demonstrated that measured outcomes of OBC in a population-based multi-centre setting can be comparable to the outcomes of large volume single centre series

Hormone receptor status of a first primary breast cancer predicts contralateral breast cancer risk in the WECARE study population

Abstract Background Previous population-based studies have described first primary breast cancer tumor characteristics and their association with contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk. However, information on influential covariates such as treatment, family history of breast cancer, and BRCA1/2 mutation carrier status was not available. In a large, population-based, case-control study, we evaluated whether tumor characteristics of the first primary breast cancer are associated with risk of developing second primary asynchronous CBC, overall and in subgroups of interest, including among BRCA1/2 mutation non-carriers, women who are not treated with tamoxifen, and women without a breast cancer family history. Methods The Women’s Environmental Cancer and Radiation Epidemiology Study is a population-based case-control study of 1521 CBC cases and 2212 individually-matched controls with unilateral breast cancer. Detailed information about breast cancer risk factors, treatment for and characteristics of first tumors, including estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) status, was obtained by telephone interview and medical record abstraction. Multivariable risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated in conditional logistic regression models, adjusting for demographics, treatment, and personal medical and family history. A subset of women was screened for BRCA1/2 mutations. Results Lobular histology of the first tumor was associated with a 30% increase in CBC risk (95% CI 1.0–1.6). Compared to women with ER+/PR+ first tumors, those with ER-/PR- tumors had increased risk of CBC (RR = 1.4, 95% CI 1.1–1.7). Notably, women with ER-/PR- first tumors were more likely to develop CBC with the ER-/PR- phenotype (RR = 5.4, 95% CI 3.0–9.5), and risk remained elevated in multiple subgroups: BRCA1/2 mutation non-carriers, women younger than 45 years of age, women without a breast cancer family history, and women who were not treated with tamoxifen. Conclusions Having a hormone receptor negative first primary breast cancer is associated with increased risk of CBC. Women with ER-/PR- primary tumors were more likely to develop ER-/PR- CBC, even after excluding BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. Hormone receptor status, which is routinely evaluated in breast tumors, may be used clinically to determine treatment protocols and identify patients who may benefit from increased surveillance for CBC

Nested inversion polymorphisms predispose chromosome 22q11.2 to meiotic rearrangements [RETRACTED]

Inversion polymorphisms between low-copy repeats (LCRs) might predispose chromosomes to meiotic non-allelic homologous recombination (NAHR) events and thus lead to genomic disorders. However, for the 22q11.2 deletion syndrome (22q11.2DS), the most common genomic disorder, no such inversions have been uncovered as of yet. Using fiber-FISH, we demonstrate that parents transmitting the de novo 3 Mb LCR22A–D 22q11.2 deletion, the reciprocal duplication, and the smaller 1.5 Mb LCR22A–B 22q11.2 deletion carry inversions of LCR22B–D or LCR22C–D. Hence, the inversions predispose chromosome 22q11.2 to meiotic rearrangements and increase the individual risk for transmitting rearrangements. Interestingly, the inversions are nested or flanking rather than coinciding with the deletion or duplication sizes. This finding raises the possibility that inversions are a prerequisite not only for 22q11.2 rearrangements but also for all NAHR-mediated genomic disorders

Complete sequence of the 22q11.2 allele in 1,053 subjects with 22q11.2 deletion syndrome reveals modifiers of conotruncal heart defects

The 22q11.2 deletion syndrome (22q11.2DS) results from non-allelic homologous recombination between low-copy repeats termed LCR22. About 60%-70% of individuals with the typical 3 megabase (Mb) deletion from LCR22A-D have congenital heart disease, mostly of the conotruncal type (CTD), whereas others have normal cardiac anatomy. In this study, we tested whether variants in the hemizygous LCR22A-D region are associated with risk for CTDs on the basis of the sequence of the 22q11.2 region from 1,053 22q11.2DS individuals. We found a significant association (FDR p < 0.05) of the CTD subset with 62 common variants in a single linkage disequilibrium (LD) block in a 350 kb interval harboring CRKL. A total of 45 of the 62 variants were associated with increased risk for CTDs (odds ratio [OR) ranges: 1.64-4.75). Associations of four variants were replicated in a meta-analysis of three genome-wide association studies of CTDs in affected individuals without 22q11.2DS. One of the replicated variants, rs178252, is located in an open chromatin region and resides in the double-elite enhancer, GH22J020947, that is predicted to regulate CRKL (CRK-like proto-oncogene, cytoplasmic adaptor) expression. Approximately 23% of patients with nested LCR22C-D deletions have CTDs, and inactivation of Crkl in mice causes CTDs, thus implicating this gene as a modifier. Rs178252 and rs6004160 are expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) of CRKL. Furthermore, set-based tests identified an enhancer that is predicted to target CRKL and is significantly associated with CTD risk (GH22J020946, sequence kernal association test (SKAT) p = 7.21 × 10-5) in the 22q11.2DS cohort. These findings suggest that variance in CTD penetrance in the 22q11.2DS population can be explained in part by variants affecting CRKL expression

Genetic Drivers of Kidney Defects in the DiGeorge Syndrome

Background The DiGeorge syndrome, the most common of the microdeletion syndromes, affects multiple organs, including the heart, the nervous system, and the kidney. It is caused by deletions on chromosome 22q11.2; the genetic driver of the kidney defects is unknown. Methods We conducted a genomewide search for structural variants in two cohorts: 2080 patients with congenital kidney and urinary tract anomalies and 22,094 controls. We performed exome and targeted resequencing in samples obtained from 586 additional patients with congenital kidney anomalies. We also carried out functional studies using zebrafish and mice. Results We identified heterozygous deletions of 22q11.2 in 1.1% of the patients with congenital kidney anomalies and in 0.01% of population controls (odds ratio, 81.5; P=4.5×10(-14)). We localized the main drivers of renal disease in the DiGeorge syndrome to a 370-kb region containing nine genes. In zebrafish embryos, an induced loss of function in snap29, aifm3, and crkl resulted in renal defects; the loss of crkl alone was sufficient to induce defects. Five of 586 patients with congenital urinary anomalies had newly identified, heterozygous protein-altering variants, including a premature termination codon, in CRKL. The inactivation of Crkl in the mouse model induced developmental defects similar to those observed in patients with congenital urinary anomalies. Conclusions We identified a recurrent 370-kb deletion at the 22q11.2 locus as a driver of kidney defects in the DiGeorge syndrome and in sporadic congenital kidney and urinary tract anomalies. Of the nine genes at this locus, SNAP29, AIFM3, and CRKL appear to be critical to the phenotype, with haploinsufficiency of CRKL emerging as the main genetic driver. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others.)

Common, low-frequency, rare, and ultra-rare coding variants contribute to COVID-19 severity

The combined impact of common and rare exonic variants in COVID-19 host genetics is currently insufficiently understood. Here, common and rare variants from whole-exome sequencing data of about 4000 SARS-CoV-2-positive individuals were used to define an interpretable machine-learning model for predicting COVID-19 severity. First, variants were converted into separate sets of Boolean features, depending on the absence or the presence of variants in each gene. An ensemble of LASSO logistic regression models was used to identify the most informative Boolean features with respect to the genetic bases of severity. The Boolean features selected by these logistic models were combined into an Integrated PolyGenic Score that offers a synthetic and interpretable index for describing the contribution of host genetics in COVID-19 severity, as demonstrated through testing in several independent cohorts. Selected features belong to ultra-rare, rare, low-frequency, and common variants, including those in linkage disequilibrium with known GWAS loci. Noteworthily, around one quarter of the selected genes are sex-specific. Pathway analysis of the selected genes associated with COVID-19 severity reflected the multi-organ nature of the disease. The proposed model might provide useful information for developing diagnostics and therapeutics, while also being able to guide bedside disease management. © 2021, The Author(s)

Assumption without representation: the unacknowledged abstraction from communities and social goods

We have not clearly acknowledged the abstraction from unpriceable “social goods” (derived from communities) which, different from private and public goods, simply disappear if it is attempted to market them. Separability from markets and economics has not been argued, much less established. Acknowledging communities would reinforce rather than undermine them, and thus facilitate the production of social goods. But it would also help economics by facilitating our understanding of – and response to – financial crises as well as environmental destruction and many social problems, and by reducing the alienation from economics often felt by students and the public

Increasing frailty is associated with higher prevalence and reduced recognition of delirium in older hospitalised inpatients: results of a multi-centre study

Purpose: Delirium is a neuropsychiatric disorder delineated by an acute change in cognition, attention, and consciousness. It is common, particularly in older adults, but poorly recognised. Frailty is the accumulation of deficits conferring an increased risk of adverse outcomes. We set out to determine how severity of frailty, as measured using the CFS, affected delirium rates, and recognition in hospitalised older people in the United Kingdom. Methods: Adults over 65 years were included in an observational multi-centre audit across UK hospitals, two prospective rounds, and one retrospective note review. Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), delirium status, and 30-day outcomes were recorded. Results: The overall prevalence of delirium was 16.3% (483). Patients with delirium were more frail than patients without delirium (median CFS 6 vs 4). The risk of delirium was greater with increasing frailty [OR 2.9 (1.8–4.6) in CFS 4 vs 1–3; OR 12.4 (6.2–24.5) in CFS 8 vs 1–3]. Higher CFS was associated with reduced recognition of delirium (OR of 0.7 (0.3–1.9) in CFS 4 compared to 0.2 (0.1–0.7) in CFS 8). These risks were both independent of age and dementia. Conclusion: We have demonstrated an incremental increase in risk of delirium with increasing frailty. This has important clinical implications, suggesting that frailty may provide a more nuanced measure of vulnerability to delirium and poor outcomes. However, the most frail patients are least likely to have their delirium diagnosed and there is a significant lack of research into the underlying pathophysiology of both of these common geriatric syndromes

Duration of androgen deprivation therapy with postoperative radiotherapy for prostate cancer: a comparison of long-course versus short-course androgen deprivation therapy in the RADICALS-HD randomised trial

Background Previous evidence supports androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) with primary radiotherapy as initial treatment for intermediate-risk and high-risk localised prostate cancer. However, the use and optimal duration of ADT with postoperative radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy remains uncertain. Methods RADICALS-HD was a randomised controlled trial of ADT duration within the RADICALS protocol. Here, we report on the comparison of short-course versus long-course ADT. Key eligibility criteria were indication for radiotherapy after previous radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer, prostate-specific antigen less than 5 ng/mL, absence of metastatic disease, and written consent. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to add 6 months of ADT (short-course ADT) or 24 months of ADT (long-course ADT) to radiotherapy, using subcutaneous gonadotrophin-releasing hormone analogue (monthly in the short-course ADT group and 3-monthly in the long-course ADT group), daily oral bicalutamide monotherapy 150 mg, or monthly subcutaneous degarelix. Randomisation was done centrally through minimisation with a random element, stratified by Gleason score, positive margins, radiotherapy timing, planned radiotherapy schedule, and planned type of ADT, in a computerised system. The allocated treatment was not masked. The primary outcome measure was metastasis-free survival, defined as metastasis arising from prostate cancer or death from any cause. The comparison had more than 80% power with two-sided α of 5% to detect an absolute increase in 10-year metastasis-free survival from 75% to 81% (hazard ratio [HR] 0·72). Standard time-to-event analyses were used. Analyses followed intention-to-treat principle. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN40814031, and ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT00541047 . Findings Between Jan 30, 2008, and July 7, 2015, 1523 patients (median age 65 years, IQR 60–69) were randomly assigned to receive short-course ADT (n=761) or long-course ADT (n=762) in addition to postoperative radiotherapy at 138 centres in Canada, Denmark, Ireland, and the UK. With a median follow-up of 8·9 years (7·0–10·0), 313 metastasis-free survival events were reported overall (174 in the short-course ADT group and 139 in the long-course ADT group; HR 0·773 [95% CI 0·612–0·975]; p=0·029). 10-year metastasis-free survival was 71·9% (95% CI 67·6–75·7) in the short-course ADT group and 78·1% (74·2–81·5) in the long-course ADT group. Toxicity of grade 3 or higher was reported for 105 (14%) of 753 participants in the short-course ADT group and 142 (19%) of 757 participants in the long-course ADT group (p=0·025), with no treatment-related deaths. Interpretation Compared with adding 6 months of ADT, adding 24 months of ADT improved metastasis-free survival in people receiving postoperative radiotherapy. For individuals who can accept the additional duration of adverse effects, long-course ADT should be offered with postoperative radiotherapy. Funding Cancer Research UK, UK Research and Innovation (formerly Medical Research Council), and Canadian Cancer Society