On "Sexual contacts and epidemic thresholds," models and inference for Sexual partnership distributions

Recent work has focused attention on statistical inference for the population distribution of the number of sexual partners based on survey data. The characteristics of these distributions are of interest as components of mathematical models for the transmission dynamics of sexually-transmitted diseases (STDs). Such information can be used both to calibrate theoretical models, to make predictions for real populations, and as a tool for guiding public health policy. Our previous work on this subject has developed likelihood-based statistical methods for inference that allow for low-dimensional, semi-parametric models. Inference has been based on several proposed stochastic process models for the formation of sexual partnership networks. We have also developed model selection criteria to choose between competing models, and assessed the fit of different models to three populations: Uganda, Sweden, and the USA. Throughout this work, we have emphasized the correct assessment of the uncertainty of the estimates based on the data analyzed. We have also widened the question of interest to the limitations of inferences from such data, and the utility of degree-based epidemiological models more generally. In this paper we address further statistical issues that are important in this area, and a number of confusions that have arisen in interpreting our work. In particular, we consider the use of cumulative lifetime partner distributions, heaping and other issues raised by Liljeros et al. in a recent working paper.Comment: 22 pages, 5 figures in linked working pape

Clinical alcohol guidelines are welcome—but upstream action is paramount

Letter to the edito

The English are healthier than the Americans: really?

Background: When comparing the health of two populations, it is not enough to compare the prevalence of chronic diseases. The objective of this study is therefore to propose a metric of health based on domains of functioning to determine whether the English are healthier than the Americans. Methods: We analysed representative samples aged 50 to 80 years from the 2008 wave of the Health and Retirement Study (N?=?10?349) for the US data, and wave 4 of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (N?=?9405) for English counterpart data. We first calculated the age-standardized disease prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, all heart diseases, stroke, lung disease, cancer and obesity. Second, we developed a metric of health using Rasch analyses and the questions and measured tests common to both surveys addressing domains of human functioning. Finally, we used a linear additive model to test whether the differences in health were due to being English or American. Results: The English have better health than the Americans when population health is assessed only by prevalence of selected chronic health conditions. The English health advantage disappears almost completely, however, when health is assessed with a metric that integrates information about functioning domains. Conclusions: It is possible to construct a metric of health, based on data directly collected from individuals, in which health is operationalized as domains of functioning. Its application has the potential to tackle one of the most intractable problems in international research on health, namely the comparability of health across countries

Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C sepsis and septic arthritis in an HIV-positive man

A patient with well-controlled HIV-1 infection presented with fever and rigors, a widespread maculopapular rash, and severe generalised arthralgia. Sepsis of unknown aetiology was diagnosed, and treatment with broad-spectrum antimicrobials commenced. Following initial clinical improvement, a right knee septic arthritis developed. Microscopy and culture of the joint aspirate were negative for organisms but 16S rDNA PCR identified Neisseria meningitidis DNA, subsequently verified as capsular genogroup C, thus confirming a diagnosis of disseminated meningococcal sepsis with secondary septic arthritis

Problems with Fitting to the Power-Law Distribution

This short communication uses a simple experiment to show that fitting to a power law distribution by using graphical methods based on linear fit on the log-log scale is biased and inaccurate. It shows that using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is far more robust. Finally, it presents a new table for performing the Kolmogorov-Smirnof test for goodness-of-fit tailored to power-law distributions in which the power-law exponent is estimated using MLE. The techniques presented here will advance the application of complex network theory by allowing reliable estimation of power-law models from data and further allowing quantitative assessment of goodness-of-fit of proposed power-law models to empirical data.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figure, 2 table

Polarisation Observations of H2_{2}O JK−1K1=532−441J_{K_{-1}K_{1}} = 5_{32} - 4_{41} 620.701 GHz Maser Emission with Herschel/HIFI in Orion KL

Context. The high intensities and narrow bandwidths exhibited by some astronomical masers make them ideal tools for studying star-forming giant molecular clouds. The water maser transition $J_{K_{-1}K_{1}}=5_{32}-4_{41}$ at 620.701 GHz can only be observed from above Earth's strongly absorbing atmosphere; its emission has recently been detected from space. Aims. We sought to further characterize the star-forming environment of Orion KL by investigating the linear polarisation of a source emitting a narrow 620.701 GHz maser feature with the heterodyne spectrometer HIFI on board the Herschel Space Observatory. Methods. High-resolution spectral datasets were collected over a thirteen month period beginning in 2011 March, to establish not only the linear polarisation but also the temporal variability of the source. Results. Within a $3\sigma$ uncertainty, no polarisation was detected to an upper limit of approximately 2%. These results are compared with coeval linear polarisation measurements of the 22.235 GHz $J_{K_{-1}K_{1}}=6_{16}-5_{23}$ maser line from the Effelsberg 100-m radio telescope, typically a much stronger maser transition. Although strongly polarised emission is observed for one component of the 22.235 GHz maser at 7.2 km s$^{-1}$, a weaker component at the same velocity as the 620.701 GHz maser at 11.7 km s$^{-1}$ is much less polarised.Comment: Accepted for publication in A&