Gradient boosting decision tree becomes more reliable than logistic regression in predicting probability for diabetes with big data

We sought to verify the reliability of machine learning (ML) in developing diabetes prediction models by utilizing big data. To this end, we compared the reliability of gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) and logistic regression (LR) models using data obtained from the Kokuho-database of the Osaka prefecture, Japan. To develop the models, we focused on 16 predictors from health checkup data from April 2013 to December 2014. A total of 277,651 eligible participants were studied. The prediction models were developed using a light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), which is an effective GBDT implementation algorithm, and LR. Their reliabilities were measured based on expected calibration error (ECE), negative log-likelihood (Logloss), and reliability diagrams. Similarly, their classification accuracies were measured in the area under the curve (AUC). We further analyzed their reliabilities while changing the sample size for training. Among the 277,651 participants, 15,900 (7978 males and 7922 females) were newly diagnosed with diabetes within 3 years. LightGBM (LR) achieved an ECE of 0.0018 ± 0.00033 (0.0048 ± 0.00058), a Logloss of 0.167 ± 0.00062 (0.172 ± 0.00090), and an AUC of 0.844 ± 0.0025 (0.826 ± 0.0035). From sample size analysis, the reliability of LightGBM became higher than LR when the sample size increased more than 104. Thus, we confirmed that GBDT provides a more reliable model than that of LR in the development of diabetes prediction models using big data. ML could potentially produce a highly reliable diabetes prediction model, a helpful tool for improving lifestyle and preventing diabetes

債権の二重譲渡と物権の二重譲渡はどこが違う？

第一部　主題　　　第二部　教員ゼミ[特別企画]インターカレッジ民法討論

Behavioral evidence for internal factors affecting duration of conglobation in pill bugs (Armadillidium vulgare, Isopoda, Crustacea)

Pill bugs individually walked an experimental pathway, then were induced to conglobate with a puff of air. After recovering, they were stimulated again. Sixty of 80 pill bugs conglobated both times, first moving either antennae (A) or legs (L) during recovery. Both AA and LL groups showed a significant positive correlation between first (t1) and second (t2) conglobation times. In the AL group, pathway locomotion time (t0) was significantly positively correlated to both t1 and t2. We conclude that pill bugs determine conglobation time based partly on their previous states

コーズの消失による贈与の失効 : ベルギー破毀院判決を手掛かりとして

はじめに, 一　本判決の事案および判決, 二　検討, おわり

債権の二重譲渡と物権の二重譲渡はどこが違う？

第一部　主題　　　第二部　教員ゼミ[特別企画]インターカレッジ民法討論