WoMMBAT: A user interface for hierarchical Bayesian estimation of working memory capacity

The change detection paradigm has become an important tool for researchers studying working memory. Change detection is especially useful for studying visual working memory, because recall paradigms are difficult to employ in the visual modality. Pashler (Perception & Psychophysics, 44, 369–378, 1988) and Cowan (Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 24, 87–114, 2001) suggested formulas for estimating working memory capacity from change detection data. Although these formulas have become widely used, Morey (Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 55, 8–24, 2011) showed that the formulas suffer from a number of issues, including inefficient use of information, bias, volatility, uninterpretable parameter estimates, and violation of ANOVA assumptions. Morey presented a hierarchical Bayesian extension of Pashler’s and Cowan’s basic models that mitigates these issues. Here, we present WoMMBAT (Working Memory Modeling using Bayesian Analysis Techniques) software for fitting Morey’s model to data. WoMMBAT has a graphical user interface, is freely available, and is cross-platform, running on Windows, Linux, and Mac operating systems

Flexible attention allocation to visual and auditory working memory tasks: manipulating reward induces a trade-off

Prominent roles for general attention resources are posited in many models of working memory, but the manner in which these can be allocated differs between models or is not sufficiently specified. We varied the payoffs for correct responses in two temporally-overlapping recognition tasks, a visual array comparison task and a tone sequence comparison task. In the critical conditions, an increase in reward for one task corresponded to a decrease in reward for the concurrent task, but memory load remained constant. Our results show patterns of interference consistent with a trade-off between the tasks, suggesting that a shared resource can be flexibly divided, rather than only fully allotted to either of the tasks. Our findings support a role for a domain-general resource in models of working memory, and furthermore suggest that this resource is flexibly divisible

Opportunity for verbalization does not improve visual change detection performance:A state trace analysis

Evidence suggests that there is a tendency to verbally recode visually-presented information, and that in some cases verbal recoding can boost memory performance. According to multi-component models of working memory, memory performance is increased because task-relevant information is simultaneously maintained in two codes. The possibility of dual encoding is problematic if the goal is to measure capacity for visual information exclusively. To counteract this possibility, articulatory suppression is frequently used with visual change detection tasks specifically to prevent verbalization of visual stimuli. But is this precaution always necessary? There is little reason to believe that concurrent articulation affects performance in typical visual change detection tasks, suggesting that verbal recoding might not be likely to occur in this paradigm, and if not, precautionary articulatory suppression would not always be necessary. We present evidence confirming that articulatory suppression has no discernible effect on performance in a typical visual change-detection task in which abstract patterns are briefly presented. A comprehensive analysis using both descriptive statistics and Bayesian state-trace analysis revealed no evidence for any complex relationship between articulatory suppression and performance that would be consistent with a verbal recoding explanation. Instead, the evidence favors the simpler explanation that verbal strategies were either not deployed in the task or, if they were, were not effective in improving performance, and thus have no influence on visual working memory as measured during visual change detection. We conclude that in visual change detection experiments in which abstract visual stimuli are briefly presented, pre-cautionary articulatory suppression is unnecessary

Statistical inference and the replication crisis

The replication crisis has prompted many to call for statistical reform within the psychological sciences. Here we examine issues within Frequentist statistics that may have led to the replication crisis, and we examine the alternative—Bayesian statistics—that many have suggested as a replacement. The Frequentist approach and the Bayesian approach offer radically different perspectives on evidence and inference with the Frequentist approach prioritising error control and the Bayesian approach offering a formal method for quantifying the relative strength of evidence for hypotheses. We suggest that rather than mere statistical reform, what is needed is a better understanding of the different modes of statistical inference and a better understanding of how statistical inference relates to scientific inference

Four reasons to prefer Bayesian analyses over significance testing

Inference using significance testing and Bayes factors is compared and contrasted in five case studies based on real research. The first study illustrates that the methods will often agree, both in motivating researchers to conclude that H1 is supported better than H0, and the other way round, that H0 is better supported than H1. The next four, however, show that the methods will also often disagree. In these cases, the aim of the paper will be to motivate the sensible evidential conclusion, and then see which approach matches those intuitions. Specifically, it is shown that a high-powered non-significant result is consistent with no evidence for H0 over H1 worth mentioning, which a Bayes factor can show, and, conversely, that a low-powered non-significant result is consistent with substantial evidence for H0 over H1, again indicated by Bayesian analyses. The fourth study illustrates that a high-powered significant result may not amount to any evidence for H1 over H0, matching the Bayesian conclusion. Finally, the fifth study illustrates that different theories can be evidentially supported to different degrees by the same data; a fact that P-values cannot reflect but Bayes factors can. It is argued that appropriate conclusions match the Bayesian inferences, but not those based on significance testing, where they disagree

Bayes Factors for Mixed Models: a Discussion

van Doorn et al. (2021) outlined various questions that arise when conducting Bayesian model comparison for mixed effects models. Seven response articles offered their own perspective on the preferred setup for mixed model comparison, on the most appropriate specification of prior distributions, and on the desirability of default recommendations. This article presents a round-table discussion that aims to clarify outstanding issues, explore common ground, and outline practical considerations for any researcher wishing to conduct a Bayesian mixed effects model comparison

Human Leptospirosis Caused by a New, Antigenically Unique Leptospira Associated with a Rattus Species Reservoir in the Peruvian Amazon

As part of a prospective study of leptospirosis and biodiversity of Leptospira in the Peruvian Amazon, a new Leptospira species was isolated from humans with acute febrile illness. Field trapping identified this leptospire in peridomestic rats (Rattus norvegicus, six isolates; R. rattus, two isolates) obtained in urban, peri-urban, and rural areas of the Iquitos region. Novelty of this species was proven by serological typing, 16S ribosomal RNA gene sequencing, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, and DNA-DNA hybridization analysis. We have named this species “Leptospira licerasiae” serovar Varillal, and have determined that it is phylogenetically related to, but genetically distinct from, other intermediate Leptospira such as L. fainei and L. inadai. The type strain is serovar Varillal strain VAR 010T, which has been deposited into internationally accessible culture collections. By microscopic agglutination test, “Leptospira licerasiae” serovar Varillal was antigenically distinct from all known serogroups of Leptospira except for low level cross-reaction with rabbit anti–L. fainei serovar Hurstbridge at a titer of 1∶100. LipL32, although not detectable by PCR, was detectable in “Leptospira licerasiae” serovar Varillal by both Southern blot hybridization and Western immunoblot, although on immunoblot, the predicted protein was significantly smaller (27 kDa) than that of L. interrogans and L. kirschneri (32 kDa). Isolation was rare from humans (2/45 Leptospira isolates from 881 febrile patients sampled), but high titers of MAT antibodies against “Leptospira licerasiae” serovar Varillal were common (30%) among patients fulfilling serological criteria for acute leptospirosis in the Iquitos region, and uncommon (7%) elsewhere in Peru. This new leptospiral species reflects Amazonian biodiversity and has evolved to become an important cause of leptospirosis in the Peruvian Amazon

Application and Validation of PFGE for Serovar Identification of Leptospira Clinical Isolates

Serovar identification of clinical isolates of Leptospira is generally not performed on a routine basis, yet the identity of an infecting serovar is valuable from both epidemiologic and public health standpoints. Only a small number of reference laboratories worldwide have the capability to perform the cross agglutinin absorption test (CAAT), the reference method for serovar identification. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) is an alternative method to CAAT that facilitates rapid identification of leptospires to the serovar level. We employed PFGE to evaluate 175 isolates obtained from humans and animals submitted to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) between 1993 and 2007. PFGE patterns for each isolate were generated using the NotI restriction enzyme and compared to a reference database consisting of more than 200 reference strains. Of the 175 clinical isolates evaluated, 136 (78%) were identified to the serovar level by the database, and an additional 27 isolates (15%) have been identified as probable new serovars. The remaining isolates yet to be identified are either not represented in the database or require further study to determine whether or not they also represent new serovars. PFGE proved to be a useful tool for serovar identification of clinical isolates of known serovars from different geographic regions and a variety of different hosts and for recognizing potential new serovars

Lifestyle interventions are feasible in patients with colorectal cancer with potential short-term health benefits:a systematic review

Purpose: Lifestyle interventions have been proposed to improve cancer survivorship in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC), but with treatment pathways becoming increasingly multi-modal and prolonged, opportunities for interventions may be limited. This systematic review assessed the evidence for the feasibility of performing lifestyle interventions in CRC patients and evaluated any short- and long-term health benefits. Methods: Using PRISMA Guidelines, selected keywords identified randomised controlled studies (RCTs) of lifestyle interventions [smoking, alcohol, physical activity (PA) and diet/excess body weight] in CRC patients. These electronic databases were searched in June 2015: Dynamed, Cochrane Database, OVID MEDLINE, OVID EMBASE, and PEDro. Results: Fourteen RCTs were identified: PA RCTs (n = 10) consisted mainly of telephone-prompted walking or cycling interventions of varied durations, predominately in adjuvant setting; dietary/excess weight interventions RCTs (n = 4) focused on low-fat and/or high-fibre diets within a multi-modal lifestyle intervention. There were no reported RCTs in smoking or alcohol cessation/reduction. PA and/or dietary/excess weight interventions reported variable recruitment rates, but good adherence and retention/follow-up rates, leading to short-term improvements in dietary quality, physical, psychological and quality-of-life parameters. Only one study assessed long-term follow-up, finding significantly improved cancer-specific survival after dietary intervention. Conclusions: This is the first systematic review on lifestyle interventions in patients with CRC finding these interventions to be feasible with improvements in short-term health. Future work should focus on defining the optimal type of intervention (type, duration, timing and intensity) that not only leads to improved short-term outcomes but also assesses long-term survival