Hot Streaks in Artistic, Cultural, and Scientific Careers

The hot streak, loosely defined as winning begets more winnings, highlights a specific period during which an individual's performance is substantially higher than her typical performance. While widely debated in sports, gambling, and financial markets over the past several decades, little is known if hot streaks apply to individual careers. Here, building on rich literature on lifecycle of creativity, we collected large-scale career histories of individual artists, movie directors and scientists, tracing the artworks, movies, and scientific publications they produced. We find that, across all three domains, hit works within a career show a high degree of temporal regularity, each career being characterized by bursts of high-impact works occurring in sequence. We demonstrate that these observations can be explained by a simple hot-streak model we developed, allowing us to probe quantitatively the hot streak phenomenon governing individual careers, which we find to be remarkably universal across diverse domains we analyzed: The hot streaks are ubiquitous yet unique across different careers. While the vast majority of individuals have at least one hot streak, hot streaks are most likely to occur only once. The hot streak emerges randomly within an individual's sequence of works, is temporally localized, and is unassociated with any detectable change in productivity. We show that, since works produced during hot streaks garner significantly more impact, the uncovered hot streaks fundamentally drives the collective impact of an individual, ignoring which leads us to systematically over- or under-estimate the future impact of a career. These results not only deepen our quantitative understanding of patterns governing individual ingenuity and success, they may also have implications for decisions and policies involving predicting and nurturing individuals with lasting impact

Synergies for Improving Oil Palm Production and Forest Conservation in Floodplain Landscapes

Lowland tropical forests are increasingly threatened with conversion to oil palm as global demand and high profit drives crop expansion throughout the world’s tropical regions. Yet, landscapes are not homogeneous and regional constraints dictate land suitability for this crop. We conducted a regional study to investigate spatial and economic components of forest conversion to oil palm within a tropical floodplain in the Lower Kinabatangan, Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. The Kinabatangan ecosystem harbours significant biodiversity with globally threatened species but has suffered forest loss and fragmentation. We mapped the oil palm and forested landscapes (using object-based-image analysis, classification and regression tree analysis and on-screen digitising of high-resolution imagery) and undertook economic modelling. Within the study region (520,269 ha), 250,617 ha is cultivated with oil palm with 77% having high Net-Present-Value (NPV) estimates ($413/ha?yr–$637/ha?yr); but 20.5% is under-producing. In fact 6.3% (15,810 ha) of oil palm is commercially redundant (with negative NPV of $-299/ha?yr-$-65/ha?yr) due to palm mortality from flood inundation. These areas would have been important riparian or flooded forest types. Moreover, 30,173 ha of unprotected forest remain and despite its value for connectivity and biodiversity 64% is allocated for future oil palm. However, we estimate that at minimum 54% of these forests are unsuitable for this crop due to inundation events. If conversion to oil palm occurs, we predict a further 16,207 ha will become commercially redundant. This means that over 32,000 ha of forest within the floodplain would have been converted for little or no financial gain yet with significant cost to the ecosystem. Our findings have globally relevant implications for similar floodplain landscapes undergoing forest transformation to agriculture such as oil palm. Understanding landscape level constraints to this crop, and transferring these into policy and practice, may provide conservation and economic opportunities within these seemingly high opportunity cost landscapes

Activation of Akt Signaling Reduces the Prevalence and Intensity of Malaria Parasite Infection and Lifespan in Anopheles stephensi Mosquitoes

Malaria (Plasmodium spp.) kills nearly one million people annually and this number will likely increase as drug and insecticide resistance reduces the effectiveness of current control strategies. The most important human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum, undergoes a complex developmental cycle in the mosquito that takes approximately two weeks and begins with the invasion of the mosquito midgut. Here, we demonstrate that increased Akt signaling in the mosquito midgut disrupts parasite development and concurrently reduces the duration that mosquitoes are infective to humans. Specifically, we found that increased Akt signaling in the midgut of heterozygous Anopheles stephensi reduced the number of infected mosquitoes by 60–99%. Of those mosquitoes that were infected, we observed a 75–99% reduction in parasite load. In homozygous mosquitoes with increased Akt signaling parasite infection was completely blocked. The increase in midgut-specific Akt signaling also led to an 18–20% reduction in the average mosquito lifespan. Thus, activation of Akt signaling reduced the number of infected mosquitoes, the number of malaria parasites per infected mosquito, and the duration of mosquito infectivity

The temporal reliability of serum estrogens, progesterone, gonadotropins, SHBG and urinary estrogen and progesterone metabolites in premenopausal women

BACKGROUND: There is little existing research to guide researchers in estimating the minimum number of measurement occasions required to obtain reliable estimates of serum estrogens, progesterone, gonadotropins, sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG), and urinary estrogen and progesterone metabolites in premenopausal women. METHODS: Using data from a longitudinal study of 34 women with a mean age of 42.3 years (SD = 2.6), we calculated the minimum number of measurement occasions required to obtain reliable estimates of 12 analytes (8 in blood, 4 in urine). Five samples were obtained over 1 year: at baseline, and after 1, 3, 6, and 12 months. We also calculated the percent of true variance accounted for by a single measurement and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) between measurement occasions. RESULTS: Only 2 of the 12 analytes we examined, SHBG and estrone sulfate (E(1)S), could be adequately estimated by a single measurement using a minimum reliability standard of having the potential to account for 64% of true variance. Other analytes required from 2 to 12 occasions to account for 81% of the true variance, and 2 to 5 occasions to account for 64% of true variance. ICCs ranged from 0.33 for estradiol (E(2)) to 0.88 for SHBG. Percent of true variance accounted for by single measurements ranged from 29% for luteinizing hormone (LH) to 92% for SHBG. CONCLUSIONS: Experimental designs that take the natural variability of these analytes into account by obtaining measurements on a sufficient number of occasions will be rewarded with increased power and accuracy

Guidelines on experimental methods to assess mitochondrial dysfunction in cellular models of neurodegenerative diseases

Neurodegenerative diseases are a spectrum of chronic, debilitating disorders characterised by the progressive degeneration and death of neurons. Mitochondrial dysfunction has been implicated in most neurodegenerative diseases, but in many instances it is unclear whether such dysfunction is a cause or an effect of the underlying pathology, and whether it represents a viable therapeutic target. It is therefore imperative to utilise and optimise cellular models and experimental techniques appropriate to determine the contribution of mitochondrial dysfunction to neurodegenerative disease phenotypes. In this consensus article, we collate details on and discuss pitfalls of existing experimental approaches to assess mitochondrial function in in vitro cellular models of neurodegenerative diseases, including specific protocols for the measurement of oxygen consumption rate in primary neuron cultures, and single-neuron, time-lapse fluorescence imaging of the mitochondrial membrane potential and mitochondrial NAD(P)H. As part of the Cellular Bioenergetics of Neurodegenerative Diseases (CeBioND) consortium ( www.cebiond.org ), we are performing cross-disease analyses to identify common and distinct molecular mechanisms involved in mitochondrial bioenergetic dysfunction in cellular models of Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, and Huntington's diseases. Here we provide detailed guidelines and protocols as standardised across the five collaborating laboratories of the CeBioND consortium, with additional contributions from other experts in the field