Optimal Interest Rate Rules in Inflation Targeting Frameworks

This work describes the main characteristics of an inflation targeting regime and derives the optimal solution for interest rates according to an original methodology for two models based on the Phillips and IS curves containing general exogenous variables and a complete loss-function.

r-filters: a Hodrick-Prescott Filter Generalization

A two-parameter family of filters is proposed in which the HP filter is considered as the lowest order member. While the HP filter converges to linear time trend as the smoothing factor grows, the higher order members of the proposed family converge to higher order polynomial time trends. The filter order - the new parameter introduced - allows to set the filter selectivity. Furthermore, two different methods to implement these filters are presented.

Development and Validation of A Predictive Model For Childhood Mortality After A Traumatic Brain Injury: Analysis of the National Trauma Data Bank

Introduction: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in children. While most TBI-related admissions are mild, identifying early predictors of poor outcome may assist clinicians with timely medical decisions and effective triage utilization. Objective: We sought to develop and validate a clinical tool for predicting in-hospital death in children after a traumatic brain injury. Methods: Data was collected for children (≤18 years) from the National Trauma Data Bank between the years of 2007 to 2015. We included children who sustained any TBI, defined as: (i) open and closed skull fractures, (ii) cerebellar, cortical, or brain stem contusions, and (iii) subarachnoid, subdural, or epidural hemorrhages. We excluded studies that did not report patient age or individuals who were dead on arrival or died in the emergency room (ER). Our interest was in clinical variables that can be readily measured upon admission to the ER. As such, the predictors included patient demographics, mechanism and intent of injury, vital signs in the ER, mode of transportation, respiratory status, time from injury to ER arrival, Glasgow Coma Score (GCS), and Injury Severity Score (ISS). Multivariable logistic regression, with forward selection, was used to investigate associations between predictive variable and mortality. We randomly split the samples into a training set (70%) and a test set (30%). Model performance was measured via the C-statistic and accuracy [(true positive + true negative) / patient population]. Results: A total of 124,078 children were included in the study (69% male; median [IQR] age, 13.0 [6.0, 16.0.] years; 69% White). The rate of death was 5.5% (n=6,862). Children more likely to die were older (16 vs. 12 years, p Conclusion: Herein, we provide an accurate early prediction model for mortality in children after a TBI. Translation of our findings has led to the development of a web application that can be used by emergency healthcare providers in trauma centers

DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF A PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR CHILDHOOD MORTALITY AFTER A TRAUMATIC BRAIN INJURY: ANALYSIS OF THE NATIONAL TRAUMA DATA BANK

Introduction: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in children. While most TBI-related admissions are mild, identifying early predictors of poor outcome may assist clinicians with timely medical decisions and effective triage utilization. Objective: We sought to develop and validate a clinical tool for predicting in-hospital death in children after a traumatic brain injury. Methods: Data was collected for children (≤18 years) from the National Trauma Data Bank between the years of 2007 to 2015. We included children who sustained any TBI, defined as: (i) open and closed skull fractures, (ii) cerebellar, cortical, or brain stem contusions, and (iii) subarachnoid, subdural, or epidural hemorrhages. We excluded studies that did not report patient age or individuals who were dead on arrival or died in the emergency room (ER). Our interest was in clinical variables that can be readily measured upon admission to the ER. As such, the predictors included patient demographics, mechanism and intent of injury, vital signs in the ER, mode of transportation, respiratory status, time from injury to ER arrival, Glasgow Coma Score (GCS), and Injury Severity Score (ISS). Multivariable logistic regression, with forward selection, was used to investigate associations between predictive variable and mortality. We randomly split the samples into a training set (70%) and a test set (30%). Model performance was measured via the C-statistic and accuracy [(true positive + true negative) / patient population]. Results: A total of 124,078 children were included in the study (69% male; median [IQR] age, 13.0 [6.0, 16.0.] years; 69% White). The rate of death was 5.5% (n=6,862). Children more likely to die were older (16 vs. 12 years, p Conclusion: Herein, we provide an accurate early prediction model for mortality in children after a TBI. Translation of our findings has led to the development of a web application that can be used by emergency healthcare providers in trauma centers

Non-partisan school : a conservative education initiative in Brazil

The main goal of this article is to analyse the Non-Partisan School movement (EsP, or Escola sem Partido) which articulates social and political actors around a conservative agenda for education in Brazil. Based on Ball’s studies, this article analyses political governance networks using a free software, GEPHI, using a qualitative network methodology. The article analyses some relevant social actors in this conservative initiative. The research shows that the Non-Partisan School, though presented as an initiative against ideological indoctrination, is in fact the result of a strong combination of ideological, conservative and partisan interests. The article shows that EsP is a conservative agenda among other movements in the struggle for ideological hegemony in the educational field

A Fully Attention-Based Information Retriever

Recurrent neural networks are now the state-of-the-art in natural language processing because they can build rich contextual representations and process texts of arbitrary length. However, recent developments on attention mechanisms have equipped feedforward networks with similar capabilities, hence enabling faster computations due to the increase in the number of operations that can be parallelized. We explore this new type of architecture in the domain of question-answering and propose a novel approach that we call Fully Attention Based Information Retriever (FABIR). We show that FABIR achieves competitive results in the Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) while having fewer parameters and being faster at both learning and inference than rival methods.Comment: Accepted for presentation at the International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN) 201

V : uma linguagem com acessores de registro extensíveis e um sistema de tipos baseado em traits

This article introduces the V language, a purely functional programming language with a novel approach to records. Based on a system of type traits, V attempts to solve issues commonly found when manipulating records in purely functional programming languages.Este artigo introduz a linguagem V, uma linguagem de programacão puramente funcional com uma nova abordagem a registros. Usando um sistema de traits de tipos, V tenta resolver problemas comumente encontrados ao manipular registros em linguagens puramente funcionais

From ad hoc to durable? Development cooperation and institutional bricolage in the cotton sector in Benin

This thesis is about the history of development encounters in the cotton sector in Benin. It presents a perspective that is centred on the long durée of the host context instead of the short-lived and specific experiences of each cotton project. I substantiate this change of perspective by addressing the following question: how has the cotton sector in Benin come to incorporate the institutional arrangements of development cooperation projects into enduring institutions? This thesis contends that development projects, although temporary and specific, are inserted into a historical continuum that has regularised development cooperation practices over time, and that is perpetuated by both implementers and hosts. Thus, while a project in isolation appears to be unable to change the wider structure and practices, successive processes of institutional bricolage with project components may. In the first three chapters, I describe the learning journey that led me to my research question and outline its relevance to contemporary debates on development. I go on to detail the conceptual framework and research methods. In the third chapter, I define the boundaries of my research, situating it in the history of Benin’s cotton sector since independence in 1960 until 2018. I identify the successive waves of development assistance projects taking place over this period. In chapters four to seven, I examine how development cooperation projects have shaped the structure and practices both of subsequent projects and of the cotton sector itself. The conclusion discusses and reviews my findings in light of my research question. It appears that institutional bricolage with projects’ institutional arrangements is a process shaped by power relations in which early experiences have particular weight. This research shows that the way projects work depends on their place in the historical trajectory of development cooperation in the host context. It thus contributes to our understanding of how projects work in a certain way and in a particular moment in time

UTILIZANDO OPÇÕES REAIS NA ANÁLISE DE VIABILIDADE DE PROJETOS DE INVESTIMENTO AGROPECUÁRIOS: UM ENSAIO TEÓRICO

Este artigo representa um ensaio teórico que busca apresentar e discutir a aplicação da Teoria de Opções Reais (TOR) na análise de viabilidade econômico-financeira de projetos agropecuários. Através de uma revisão sobre os métodos tradicionais de avaliação de projetos de investimento; sobre os problemas, restrições e limitações ao uso destes; e sobre a teoria das opções reais e seus principais usos, este trabalho busca formar base de sustentação teórica para através de um exemplo ilustrativo mostrar a aplicação da TOR no agronegócio. Busca-se, através deste exemplo, discutir a possibilidade de melhorar as análises de viabilidade na área agrária pela aplicação da TOR. As motivações, justificativas e impactos positivos pelo uso da metodologia em projetos agropecuários serão explorados pelo exemplo e apresentados em sua análise. Estes mostram que existe uma ampla aderência entre a TOR e a análise de viabilidade econômico-financeira de projetos agropecuários, em virtude das características destes no que tange às incertezas futuras de preço e de volume. --------------------------------------------This paper represents a theoretical framework which searches for presenting and discussing the application of the Real Options Theory (ROT) under the economical and financial viability of farm projects. Through a review of the traditional investment projects evaluation methods, about the problems, restrictions and limitations of their usage, and related to the real options theory and its main usages, this work seeks to form a theoretical support base to through an illustrative sample show the ROT application in agribusiness. It’s searched, through this example, to discuss the possibility of increase the viability analysis in the agrarian area by the application of ROT. The motivations, justifications and positive impacts by the usage of this methodology in farm projects are operated by the sample and showed on its analysis. These ones show that exists a wide adherence between the ROT and the economical and financial viability analysis of farm projects, because of the features of these ones related to the future uncertainties of price and volume.Opções Reais, Agronegócio, Viabilidade Econômico-Financeira, Projetos de Investimento, Real Options, Agribusiness, Economical and Financial Viability, Investment Projects, Agricultural Finance,