Modelling Government Expenditures and Economic Growth Nexus in Saudi Arabia: 1968 -2010

Economic growth and development remains an important policy issue for most of the states in the world, which is a particular issue for late developing countries, as they have very much relied on ‘state’ for economic growth and development. As a result, the experience in the 20th century demonstrates a secular increase in the growth of government expenditures all over the world. Hence, the role of government expenditures in contributing to long run economic growth continues to be an important topic and the subject of much debate. Saudi Arabia economy is one of late developing countries. While its economy is characterised by an open and private economy, the government remains to have a large role in the economy through its expenditures financed largely by revenues generated from oil. While the Saudi economy has grown and developed, the government has also responded to the increased demand for social services such as education and healthcare in addition to other infrastructure investments for development purpose. Therefore, the process of economic growth and development has resulted in growth of government expenditures. This research, thus, aims at modelling of government expenditures and economic growth nexus in the case o Saudi Arabia for the period of 1968-2010 by testing a number of models developed in the literature: Wagner’s Law, Keynesian Relations and Peacock and Wiseman’s Displacement Effect. The analysis modelled within the time series econometric techniques including co-integration test, Granger causality test and the error correction model (ECM). The findings obtained from the analyses find that the Wagnerian proposition can explain the growth of government in Saudi Arabia, which holds for both the oil and non-oil income cases. The result indicates the existence of strong feedback causality for all the versions of Wagner’s law in the long run. The findings also note that the three versions of Keynesian Relations found to be held for both general income and non-oil income in the case of Saudi Arabia. In addition, the findings also support for the Displacement Effect mainly due to international political developments and trends in oil prices, as such events resulted deviation from the linear growth in the government expenditures over the average growth and it is observed that government expenditure growth continued its gradual growth from the new level. This study, thus, concludes that growing economic activity of the state has marked the Saudi Arabian economy over the period in question. While this partly can be explained due to economic reasons such as the need for economic development and responding to the demands of a growing population, but also the rentier economy nature of the Saudi political economy necessitates increasing government expenditures for political stability

Acute kidney injury outcomes at 90 days at a South African academic hospital

Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) remains a serious problem in Africa. Most studies from sub-Saharan Africa are retrospective in design and report on only short-term, in-hospital outcomes. There remains a paucity of prospective data on the long-term outcomes of AKI in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: We performed a  prospective cohort study from 1 January to 30 June 2016. AKI was diagnosed and staged according to KDIGO AKI 2012 criteria. Patients attending an academic hospital in Cape Town, South Africa were followed up for 90 days or more. Outcome was a composite of either chronic kidney disease (CKD) (eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2), end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) (eGFR <15 mL/min/1.73 m2) or death. Results: A total of 113 patients were included of whom 64 (57%) reached the composite outcome. Those reaching this outcome were older (47.5 years vs. 35 years, P = 0.02) and were more likely to have had a history of hypertension (35.9% vs. 16.3%, P = 0.02). The most common causes of AKI were sepsis (33%), drugs and toxins (16%) and glomerular disease (12%). Older age (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.03–5.12, P = 0.04) and a history of hypertension (OR 2.9, 95% CI 1.15–7.17, P = 0.02) predicted the composite outcome on univariable logistic regression; however, only a history of hypertension was associated on the multivariable model (adjusted OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.04–1.56, P = 0.02). Conclusions: In African patients with AKI, the composite outcome of CKD, ESKD and death at 90 days or more was high. Interventions to prevent the progression of patients with CKD are needed because access to chronic renal replacement therapy in the public sector of South Africa is limited

Diagnostic study of trypanosomiasis of cats in Mosul, Iraq

Background: Trypanosomiasis is a zoonotic parasitic disease endemic in Iraq but with limited information about its occurrence in cats. Aim: This study was designed to detect Trypanosoma spp. in cats using microscopic examination by Giemsa stain and conventional polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technique in Mosul, Iraq. Methods: A total of 120 blood samples from cats were microscopically examined using Giemsa stain. Only 35 positive blood samples were examined by the conventional PCR technique. Hematological changes were also reported. Results: The infection rate of Trypanosoma spp. was 34.2% (41 out of 120). Results of conventional PCR technique for the positive 35 blood samples indicated 31.4% as Trypanosoma spp. and 20% Trypanosoma evansi. This study showed that the infection in younger cats was significantly more than in older cats, with significant differences between females and males. Affected cats suffered from fever, dullness, pale mucous membranes, emaciation, muco-purulent ocular discharge, anorexia, incoordination, and anemia. Results of the blood picture indicated increase in total leukocyte count and decrease in hemoglobin concentration, packed cell volume, and total red blood cells. Conclusion: Trypanosoma spp. and T. evansi infection in Mosul of Iraq is reported for the first time in cats, and younger cats were more affected than older cats

Road Traffic Accidents in Saudi Arabia: An ARDL Approach and Multivariate Granger Causality

The present paper examine the nexus between road traffic accident (RTA) and some relevant variables in Saudi Arabia over the period 1971- 2012, using the autoregressive distributed lag ARDL model (Pesaran and Shin, 1999) for co-integration in Saudi Arabia, with the co-integration test. Results show that the variables are co-integrated in Saudi Arabia, moreover, the overall Granger causality results present that road traffic accidents, population and GDP, road mails, registered vehicles, and the number of driver license are Granger-causes each other in Saudi Arabia. With these findings, we affirm that there is a strong relationship and effect between road traffic accidents and its population, GDP, road mails, registered vehicles, and the number of driver license. The findings suggest that the ECTt-1 coefficients are negative signed and statistically significant in all VECMs, implying that there is bi-directional causality between the variables of interest in the long run

Tourism Economics in Saudi Arabia: PP-VAR Approach

In This paper investigates the nexus relationship between tourism expenditure and Non Oil economic growth in Saudi Arabia over the period 1970-2012. Using Phillips and Perron (PP) unit root test-VAR approach with several techniques including Unit root tests, Johansen’s co-integration test, Granger Causality test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). We used time series econometrics techniques to examine the causal relationship between tourism expenditure and economic growth in the Saudi economy. The findings reveal that there is a bilateral causality and positive long-run relationship running from Non Oil-GDP to tourism expenditure. The results obtained from the analyses show that there is a positive relationship between tourism spending and economic growth in Saudi Arabia. The development of tourism sector will thus have a positive impact on the growth of the Saudi economy. Also, the results show that, in Saudi Arabia, the model of tourism expenditure is found to hold for Non Oil-GDP

Wagner’s Law in Saudi Arabia 1970 - 2012: An Econometric Analysis

Our goal in this paper is to explore the validity of Wagner’s Law in Saudi Arabia during the period (1970-2012) for real oil GDP and Non-oil GDP. Wagner’s Law investigated that fundamental economic growth is validity to the public sector growth. In the previous studies have been tested the six versions of Wagner’s law to support the existence of long-run relationship between government expenditure and economic growth. We used a method as a time series econometrics techniques to examine how far Wagner’s Law validity can be applied in Saudi economy. The results obtained from the analyses find that the Wagnerian proposition can explain the growth of government in Saudi Arabia, which holds for both the oil and non-oil income cases. The findings also note that the existence of strong causality for all of Wagner’s law versions in the long run

Road Traffic Accidents in Saudi Arabia: An ADRL Approach and Multivariate Granger Causality

The present paper examine the nexus between road traffic accident (RTA) and some relevant variables in Saudi Arabia over the period 1971- 2012, using the autoregressive distributed lag ADRL model (Pesaran and Shin, 1999) for co-integration in Saudi Arabia, with the co-integration test. Results show that the variables are co-integrated in Saudi Arabia, moreover, the overall Granger causality results present that road traffic accidents, population and GDP, road mails, registered vehicles, and the number of driver license are Granger-causes each other in Saudi Arabia. With these findings, we affirm that there is a strong relationship and effect between road traffic accidents and its population, GDP, road mails, registered vehicles, and the number of driver license. The findings suggest that the ECTt-1 coefficients are negative signed and statistically significant in all VECMs, implying that there is bi-directional causality between the variables of interest in the long run

Road Traffic Accidents in Saudi Arabia: An ADRL Approach and Multivariate Granger Causality

The present paper examine the nexus between road traffic accident (RTA) and some relevant variables in Saudi Arabia over the period 1971- 2012, using the autoregressive distributed lag ADRL model (Pesaran and Shin, 1999) for co-integration in Saudi Arabia, with the co-integration test. Results show that the variables are co-integrated in Saudi Arabia, moreover, the overall Granger causality results present that road traffic accidents, population and GDP, road mails, registered vehicles, and the number of driver license are Granger-causes each other in Saudi Arabia. With these findings, we affirm that there is a strong relationship and effect between road traffic accidents and its population, GDP, road mails, registered vehicles, and the number of driver license. The findings suggest that the ECTt-1 coefficients are negative signed and statistically significant in all VECMs, implying that there is bi-directional causality between the variables of interest in the long run

Wagner’s Law in Saudi Arabia 1970 - 2012: An Econometric Analysis

Our goal in this paper is to explore the validity of Wagner’s Law in Saudi Arabia during the period (1970-2012) for real oil GDP and Non-oil GDP. Wagner’s Law investigated that fundamental economic growth is validity to the public sector growth. In the previous studies have been tested the six versions of Wagner’s law to support the existence of long-run relationship between government expenditure and economic growth. We used a method as a time series econometrics techniques to examine how far Wagner’s Law validity can be applied in Saudi economy. The results obtained from the analyses find that the Wagnerian proposition can explain the growth of government in Saudi Arabia, which holds for both the oil and non-oil income cases. The findings also note that the existence of strong causality for all of Wagner’s law versions in the long run

Tourism Economics in Saudi Arabia: PP-VAR Approach

In This paper investigates the nexus relationship between tourism expenditure and Non Oil economic growth in Saudi Arabia over the period 1970-2012. Using Phillips and Perron (PP) unit root test-VAR approach with several techniques including Unit root tests, Johansen’s co-integration test, Granger Causality test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). We used time series econometrics techniques to examine the causal relationship between tourism expenditure and economic growth in the Saudi economy. The findings reveal that there is a bilateral causality and positive long-run relationship running from Non Oil-GDP to tourism expenditure. The results obtained from the analyses show that there is a positive relationship between tourism spending and economic growth in Saudi Arabia. The development of tourism sector will thus have a positive impact on the growth of the Saudi economy. Also, the results show that, in Saudi Arabia, the model of tourism expenditure is found to hold for Non Oil-GDP