A Synthesized Methodology for Eliciting Expert Judgment for Addressing Uncertainty in Decision Analysis

This dissertation describes the development, refinement, and demonstration of an expert judgment elicitation methodology. The methodology has been developed by synthesizing the literature across several social science and scientific fields. The foremost consideration in the methodology development has been to incorporate elements that are based on reasonable expectations for the human capabilities of the user, the expert in this case. Many methodologies exist for eliciting assessments for uncertain events. These are frequently elicited in probability form. This methodology differs by incorporating a qualitative element as a beginning step for the elicitation process. The qualitative assessment is a more reasonable way to begin the task when compared to a subjective probability judgment. The procedure progresses to a quantitative evaluation of the qualitative uncertainty statement. In combination, the qualitative and quantitative assessments serve as information elicited from the expert that is in a subsequent step to develop a data set. The resulting data can be specified as probability distributions for use in a Monte Carlo simulation. A conceptual design weight estimation problem for a simplified launch vehicle model is used as an initial test case. Additional refinements to the methodology are made as the result of this test case and as the result of ongoing feedback from the expert. The refined methodology is demonstrated for a more complex full size launch vehicle model. The results of the full size launch vehicle model suggest that the methodology is a practical and useful approach for addressing uncertainty in decision analysis. As presented here, the methodology is well-suited for a decision domain that encompasses the conceptual design of a complex system. The generic nature of the methodology makes it readily adaptable to other decision domains. A follow-up evaluation is conducted utilizing multiple experts which serves as a validation of the methodology. The results of the follow-up evaluation suggest that the methodology is useful and that there is consistency and external validity in the definitions and methodology features

Recommendations for Early Phases of Engaging Communities in Climate Change Adaptation

Communities across the globe have begun planning for and adapting to climate change. Cooperative Extension Service professionals are in a unique position to use the resources available to them to facilitate climate change adaptation in their communities. Adaptation planning is a local activity that must be context specific. However, general recommendations can be made to help facilitate the planning process. In this study, we conducted a systematic review of research about climate change adaptation in communities to explore ideas that contribute to successful adaptation-planning communication. We identified and reviewed 50 peer-reviewed articles that described various outreach efforts to engage communities in planning for adaptation across a range of contexts and settings. Five themes emerged addressing how to facilitate early stages of the climate change adaptation process: establishing positive initial engagement, incorporating participatory methods, using tools to facilitate understanding, addressing trust and uncertainty, and maximizing limited time. Based on the review and emergent themes, we offer practical recommendations for educators and Cooperative Extension Service professionals as they engage communities in climate change adaptation

Decoherence Bounds on Quantum Computation with Trapped Ions

Using simple physical arguments we investigate the capabilities of a quantum computer based on cold trapped ions. From the limitations imposed on such a device by spontaneous decay, laser phase coherence, ion heating and other sources of error, we derive a bound between the number of laser interactions and the number of ions that may be used. The largest number which may be factored using a variety of species of ion is determined.Comment: 5 pages in RevTex, 2 figures, the paper is also avalaible at http://qso.lanl.gov/qc

Measurement of the directional sensitivity of Dark Matter Time Projection Chamber detectors

The Dark Matter Time Projection Chamber (DMTPC) is a direction-sensitive detector designed to measure the direction of recoiling $^{19}$F and $^{12}$C nuclei in low-pressure CF$_4$ gas using optical and charge readout systems. In this paper, we employ measurements from two DMTPC detectors, with operating pressures of 30-60 torr, to develop and validate a model of the directional response and performance of such detectors as a function of recoil energy. Using our model as a benchmark, we formulate the necessary specifications for a scalable directional detector with sensitivity comparable to that of current-generation counting (non-directional) experiments, which measure only recoil energy. Assuming the performance of existing DMTPC detectors, as well as current limits on the spin-dependent WIMP-nucleus cross section, we find that a 10-20 kg scale direction-sensitive detector is capable of correlating the measured direction of nuclear recoils with the predicted direction of incident dark matter particles and providing decisive (3$\sigma$) confirmation that a candidate signal from a non-directional experiment was indeed induced by elastic scattering of dark matter particles off of target nuclei.Comment: 13 pages, 10 figures. Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev. D. Added color figures, switched to more compact layout, and fixed some reference

Dynamic proteomic profiling of a unicellular cyanobacterium Cyanothece ATCC51142 across light-dark diurnal cycles

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Unicellular cyanobacteria of the genus <it>Cyanothece </it>are recognized for their ability to execute nitrogen (N₂)-fixation in the dark and photosynthesis in the light. An understanding of these mechanistic processes in an integrated systems context should provide insights into how <it>Cyanothece </it>might be optimized for specialized environments and/or industrial purposes. Systems-wide dynamic proteomic profiling with mass spectrometry (MS) analysis should reveal fundamental insights into the control and regulation of these functions.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>To expand upon the current knowledge of protein expression patterns in <it>Cyanothece </it>ATCC51142, we performed quantitative proteomic analysis using partial ("unsaturated") metabolic labeling and high mass accuracy LC-MS analysis. This dynamic proteomic profiling identified 721 actively synthesized proteins with significant temporal changes in expression throughout the light-dark cycles, of which 425 proteins matched with previously characterized cycling transcripts. The remaining 296 proteins contained a cluster of proteins uniquely involved in DNA replication and repair, protein degradation, tRNA synthesis and modification, transport and binding, and regulatory functions. Functional classification of labeled proteins suggested that proteins involved in respiration and glycogen metabolism showed increased expression in the dark cycle together with nitrogenase, suggesting that N₂-fixation is mediated by higher respiration and glycogen metabolism. Results indicated that <it>Cyanothece </it>ATCC51142 might utilize alternative pathways for carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) acquisition, particularly, aspartic acid and glutamate as substrates of C and N, respectively. Utilization of phosphoketolase (PHK) pathway for the conversion of xylulose-5P to pyruvate and acetyl-P likely constitutes an alternative strategy to compensate higher ATP and NADPH demand.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study provides a deeper systems level insight into how <it>Cyanothece </it>ATCC51142 modulates cellular functions to accommodate photosynthesis and N₂-fixation within the single cell.</p

Proteome Analyses of Strains Cyanothece ATCC 51142 and PCC 7822 of the Diazotrophic Cyanobacterium Cyanothece sp. Under Culture Conditions Resulting in Enhanced H2 Production.

Cultures of the cyanobacterial genus Cyanothece have been shown to produce high levels of biohydrogen. These strains are diazotrophic and undergo pronounced diurnal cycles when grown under N2-fixing conditions in light-dark cycles. We seek to better understand the way in which proteins respond to these diurnal changes, and we performed quantitative proteome analysis of Cyanothecesp. strains ATCC 51142 and PCC 7822 grown under 8 different nutritional conditions. Nitrogenase expression was limited to N2-fixing conditions, and in the absence of glycerol, nitrogenase gene expression was linked to the dark period. However, glycerol induced expression of nitrogenase during part of the light period, together with cytochrome c oxidase (Cox), glycogen phosphorylase (Glp), and glycolytic and pentose phosphate pathway (PPP) enzymes. This indicated that nitrogenase expression in the light was facilitated via higher levels of respiration and glycogen breakdown. Key enzymes of the Calvin cycle were inhibited in Cyanothece ATCC 51142 in the presence of glycerol under H2-producing conditions, suggesting a competition between these sources of carbon. However, in Cyanothece PCC 7822, the Calvin cycle still played a role in cofactor recycling during H2 production. Our data comprise the first comprehensive profiling of proteome changes in Cyanothece PCC 7822 and allow an in-depth comparative analysis of major physiological and biochemical processes that influence H2 production in both strains. Our results revealed many previously uncharacterized proteins that may play a role in nitrogenase activity and in other metabolic pathways and may provide suitable targets for genetic manipulation that would lead to improvement of large-scale H2 production

Calibration of muon reconstruction algorithms using an external muon tracking system at the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory

To help constrain the algorithms used in reconstructing high-energy muon events incident on the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory (SNO), a muon tracking system was installed. The system consisted of four planes of wire chambers, which were triggered by scintillator panels. The system was integrated with SNO's main data acquisition system and took data for a total of 95 live days. Using cosmic-ray events reconstructed in both the wire chambers and in SNO's water Cherenkov detector, the external muon tracking system was able to constrain the uncertainty on the muon direction to better than 0.6°