Integrated modeling to achieve global goals: lessons from the Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land-use, and Energy (FABLE) initiative

Humanity is challenged with making progress toward global biodiversity, freshwater, and climate goals, while providing food and nutritional security for everyone. Our current food and land-use systems are incompatible with this ambition making them unsustainable. Papers in this special feature introduce a participatory, integrated modeling approach applied to provide insights on how to transform food and land-use systems to sustainable trajectories in 12 countries: Argentina, Australia, Canada, China, Germany, Finland, India, Mexico, Rwanda, Sweden, the UK, and USA. Papers are based on work completed by members of the Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land-use, and Energy (FABLE) initiative, a network of in-country research teams engaging policymakers and other local stakeholders to co-develop future food and land-use scenarios and modeling their national and global sustainability impacts. Here, we discuss the key leverage points, methodological advances, and multi-sector engagement strategies presented and applied in this collection of work to set countries and our planet on course for achieving food security, biodiversity, freshwater, and climate targets by 2050

A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems

The achievement of several sustainable development goals and the Paris Climate Agreement depends on rapid progress towards sustainable food and land systems in all countries. We have built a flexible, collaborative modeling framework to foster the development of national pathways by local research teams and their integration up to global scale. Local researchers independently customize national models to explore mid-century pathways of the food and land use system transformation in collaboration with stakeholders. An online platform connects the national models, iteratively balances global exports and imports, and aggregates results to the global level. Our results show that actions toward greater sustainability in countries could sum up to 1 Mha net forest gain per year, 950 Mha net gain in the land where natural processes predominate, and an increased CO2 sink of 3.7 GtCO2e yr−1 over the period 2020-2050 compared to current trends, while average food consumption per capita remains above the adequate food requirements in all countries. We show examples of how the global linkage impacts national results and how different assumptions in national pathways impact global results. This modeling setup acknowledges the broad heterogeneity of socio-ecological contexts and the fact that people who live in these different contexts should be empowered to design the future they want. But it also demonstrates to local decision-makers the interconnectedness of our food and land use system and the urgent need for more collaboration to converge local and global priorities.Fil: Mosnier, Aline. Sustainable Development Solutions Network; FranciaFil: Javalera Rincon, Valeria. International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg; AustriaFil: Jones, Sarah K. Alliance of Bioversity International; FranciaFil: Andrew, Robbie. Center for International Climate Research; NoruegaFil: Bai, Zhaohai. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de ChinaFil: Baker, Justin. North Carolina State University; Estados UnidosFil: Basnet, Shyam. Stockholm Resilience Centre; SueciaFil: Boer, Rizaldi. Bogor Agricultural University; IndonesiaFil: Chavarro, John. Geo-agro-environmental Sciences And Resources Research Center; ColombiaFil: Costa, Wanderson. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; BrasilFil: Daloz, Anne Sophie. Center for International Climate Research; NoruegaFil: DeClerck, Fabrice A.. Alliance of Bioversity International; Francia. Stockholm Resilience Centre; SueciaFil: Diaz, Maria. Sustainable Development Solutions Network; FranciaFil: Douzal, Clara. Sustainable Development Solutions Network; FranciaFil: Howe Fan, Andrew Chiah. Sunway University; MalasiaFil: Fetzer, Ingo. Stockholm Resilience Centre; SueciaFil: Frank, Federico. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Gonzalez Abraham, Charlotte E.. University of California at San Diego; Estados UnidosFil: Habiburrachman, A. H. F.. Universitas Indonesia; IndonesiaFil: Immanuel, Gito. Stockholm Resilience Centre; SueciaFil: Harrison, Paula A.. Centre for Ecology & Hydrology; Reino UnidoFil: Imanirareba, Dative. Uganda Martyrs University; UgandaFil: Jha, Chandan. Indian Institute Of Management Ahmedabad; IndiaFil: Monjeau, Jorge Adrian. Fundación Bariloche; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Vittis, Yiorgos. International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis; AustriaFil: Wade, Chris. North Carolina State University; Estados UnidosFil: Winarni, Nurul L.. Universitas Indonesia; IndonesiaFil: Woldeyes, Firew Bekele. Ethiopian Development Research Institute; EtiopíaFil: Wu, Grace C.. University of California; Estados UnidosFil: Zerriffi, Hisham. University of British Columbia; Canad

A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems

The achievement of several sustainable development goals and the Paris Climate Agreement depends on rapid progress towards sustainable food and land systems in all countries. We have built a flexible, collaborative modeling framework to foster the development of national pathways by local research teams and their integration up to global scale. Local researchers independently customize national models to explore mid-century pathways of the food and land use system transformation in collaboration with stakeholders. An online platform connects the national models, iteratively balances global exports and imports, and aggregates results to the global level. Our results show that actions toward greater sustainability in countries could sum up to 1 Mha net forest gain per year, 950 Mha net gain in the land where natural processes predominate, and an increased CO2 sink of 3.7 GtCO2e yr−1 over the period 2020–2050 compared to current trends, while average food consumption per capita remains above the adequate food requirements in all countries. We show examples of how the global linkage impacts national results and how different assumptions in national pathways impact global results. This modeling setup acknowledges the broad heterogeneity of socio-ecological contexts and the fact that people who live in these different contexts should be empowered to design the future they want. But it also demonstrates to local decision-makers the interconnectedness of our food and land use system and the urgent need for more collaboration to converge local and global priorities

How can diverse national food and land-use priorities be reconciled with global sustainability targets? Lessons from the FABLE initiative

There is an urgent need for countries to transition their national food and land-use systems toward food and nutritional security, climate stability, and environmental integrity. How can countries satisfy their demands while jointly delivering the required transformative change to achieve global sustainability targets? Here, we present a collaborative approach developed with the FABLE—Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land, and Energy—Consortium to reconcile both global and national elements for developing national food and land-use system pathways. This approach includes three key features: (1) global targets, (2) country-driven multi-objective pathways, and (3) multiple iterations of pathway refinement informed by both national and international impacts. This approach strengthens policy coherence and highlights where greater national and international ambition is needed to achieve global goals (e.g., the SDGs). We discuss how this could be used to support future climate and biodiversity negotiations and what further developments would be needed

A tragedy of the commons case study: modeling the fishers king crab system in Southern Chile

Illegal fishing in small-scale fisheries is a contentious issue and resists a straightforward interpretation. Particularly, there is little knowledge regarding cooperative interactions between legal and illegal fishers and the potential effects on fisheries arising from these interactions. Taking the Chilean king crab (Lithodes santolla; common name centolla) fishery as a case study, our goal is twofold: (i) to model the effect of illegal-legal fishers’ interactions on the fishery and (ii) analyze how management and social behavior affect fishery’s outcomes. We framed the analysis of this problem within game theory combined with network theory to represent the architecture of competitive interactions. The fishers’ system was set to include registered (legal) fishers and unregistered (illegal) fishers. In the presence of unregistered fishers, legal fishers may decide to cooperate (ignoring the presence of illegal fishers) or defect, which involves becoming a “super fisher” and whitewashing the captures of illegal fishers for a gain. The utility of both players, standard fisher and super fisher depend on the strategy chosen by each of them, as well as on the presence of illegal fishers. The nodes of the network represent the legal fishers (both standard and super fishers) and the links between nodes indicate that these fishers compete for the resource, assumed to be finite and evenly distributed across space. The decision to change (or not) the adopted strategy is modeled considering that fishers are subjected to variable levels of temptation to whitewash the illegal capture and to social pressure to stop doing so. To represent the vital dynamics of the king crab, we propose a model that includes the Allee effect and a term accounting for the crab extraction. We found that the super fisher strategy leads to the decrease of the king crab population under a critical threshold as postulated in the tragedy of the commons hypothesis when there are: (i) high net extraction rates of the network composed of non-competing standard fishers, (ii) high values of the extent of the fishing season, and (iii) high density of illegal fishers. The results suggest that even in the presence of super fishers and illegal fishers, the choice of properly distributed fishing/closure cycles or setting an extraction limit per vessel can prevent the king crab population from falling below a critical threshold. This finding, although controversial, reflects the reality of this fishery that, for decades, has operated under a dynamic in which whitewashing and super fishers have become well established within the system

The McNair Scholars Journal, 2023 v. 24

The TRIO McNair Scholars Program began at the University of Wisconsin-Superior in the fall of 1999. The McNair Scholars Program is a federal TRIO program originally established in 1986 by the U.S. Department of Education, with 206 currently funded programs nationwide with 11 programs housed within Wisconsin. The Ronald E. McNair Postbaccalaureate Achievement Program (TRIO McNair Scholars Program) at the University of Wisconsin-Superior prepares income eligible, first-generation college students and students from groups underrepresented in graduate education for doctoral study by providing transformative research experiences, exceptional mentorship, and intentional professional & personal development. The University of Wisconsin-Superior TRIO McNair Scholars Program serves students from three different institutions within the region, including Northland College, University of Minnesota Duluth, and University of Wisconsin-Superior.The McNair Scholars Journal is published annually by the McNair Scholars Program, University of Wisconsin-Superior. The University of Wisconsin-Superior is an Equal Opportunity/Affirmative Action Employer and Educator. The Ronald E. McNair Postbaccalaureate Achievement Program at the University of Wisconsin-Superior is a TRIO Program funded 100% by the U.S. Department of Education