"Terrae motus factus est”: earthquakes in Switzerland before A.D. 1000. A critical approach

We focus on Swiss earthquakes in antiquity and the early medieval period before A.D. 1000. We have information on less than half a dozen earthquakes within this era, since written records for the first half of the first millennium A.D. are minimal, and there is little hope of finding more written evidence for earthquakes. Furthermore, interpreting the documents at hand is somewhat complex. For the 6th century Gregory of Tours in Historia Francorum gives hints of a rockslide near the castle Tauredunum (Le Grammont) in the Swiss canton Valais, an event that has been considered in the literature as caused by an earthquake. The Carolingian period (ca. 750-950) included the rise of some very important cultural centers in various parts of today's Switzerland. For instance, the ecclesiastical culture in St. Gallen generated a remarkable number of written records, which survived for our use in a unique manner. From the 9th and 10th centuries, we have evidence for earthquakes in the years 849, 867, 902, and 944. However, information on them remains so scarce that their location and intensity are generally difficult to assess. Nevertheless, the finding of a new document - a memoir written by the abbot of Reichenau - offers some insight into the A.D. 849 event and its reportedly aftershock

Reconstructing the damage field of the 1855 earthquake in Switzerland: historical investigations on a well-documented event

The 1855 earthquake at Visp remains the strongest in the last 300 yr in Switzerland. It caused heavy damage in the region of the middle Valais. We reconstructed the damage field of this event studying also site effects and building vulnerability. The key factors in such a study are the availability and accessibility of sufficient historical data. Given the existence of a complete contemporary damage assessment and the availability of early statistics, our investigation drew upon an excellent pool of data. These sources enabled us to quantitatively analyse the damage field on the village level. Other historical sources described some of the losses with more detail but not across the whole area. These data were qualitatively analysed and then used to calibrate and verify the outcomes of the quantitative analysis. When it was possible to describe the damage fields of single villages, as with Visp, a high percentage of damaged buildings could be located so exactly as to foster further investigation. In addition we identified several secondary effects such as rock fall, landslides and changes in the subsurface. The observed damages support the thesis of a normal fault striking along the Valley of Visp (north-south) and dipping to the wes

The 1356 Basel earthquake: an interdisciplinary revision

Within historical times one of the most damaging events in intra-plate Europe was the 1356 Basel earthquake. Given its significance for assessing regional seismic hazard in central Europe, an interdisciplinary project was launched in 2005 to re-explore this event. Our effort aimed to incorporate techniques from history, seismology, archaeology, paleoseismology and engineering. New and reinterpreted historical data from Basel and its surroundings plus archaeological findings on buildings that survived the event and still exist enabled this macroseismic assessment. Palaeoseismological studies combined with historical evidence provided additional data. For the surrounding areas, archaeology offers sparse information on some castles and churches, sometimes supported by historical records. A contemporary source allows some reconstruction of the stronger fore- and aftershocks. This expanded information base improves our sense of the event's damage and consequences. For the city of Basel, the relatively abundant archaeological data allowed us to assess statistically the macroseismic intensity at IX, although the pattern of damage was scattered. Data points for the expected area of damage around Basel are not distributed regularly. The absence of historical and archaeological findings for southern Germany might be due to archival problems; future investigation may improve this situation. Our results confirm that the Basel earthquake was the most destructive known for central Europe. Intensities up to VIII are found within a radius of about 30 km. Analysing the macroseismic field confirms our former assessment of the event and shows an epicenter located about 10 km south of Basel. The most probable range for the moment magnitude Mw is between 6.7 and 7.

Thin Endometrium Is Also Associated With Lower Clinical Pregnancy Rate in Unstimulated Menstrual Cycles: A Study Based on Natural Cycle IVF

Introduction: Does the endometrial thickness (EMT) at the time of follicle aspiration correlate with the pregnancy rate in unstimulated menstrual cycles?Materials and Methods: This is a retrospective, observational single center study.105 women with regular menstrual cycles undergoing their first NC-IVF cycle with an embryo transfer were analyzed. Clinical pregnancy and live birth rates were calculated and data were adjusted for women's age, cycle day of follicle aspiration and body mass index (BMI).Results: Age of participants was 35.0 y [32.0; 37.0]. Follicle aspiration was performed on day 14.0 [12.0; 15.0] of the cycle. Total clinical pregnancy rate was 24.8% and live birth rate 15.2% per transfer. Pregnancy rate in women with endometrial thickness ≤7 mm (n = 27) was 7.4 and 30.8% in women >7 mm (n = 78) (OR 5.56, 1.22–25.36) (P = 0.03). Live birth rates were not significantly different. Quadratic regression analysis revealed lower pregnancy rates in women with thin (around <8 mm) as well as with thick (around >11 mm) endometria. P-value after crude quadratic analysis was 0.028 and after adjustment for age, day of aspiration and BMI was 0.039. Significance was not reached for live birth rates.Conclusion: Thin endometrium should also be considered as an independent negative prognostic factor for achieving pregnancy in women without ovarian stimulation

Reconstructing the damage field of the 1855 earthquake in Switzerland: Historical investigations on a well-documented event

ISSN:0956-540XISSN:1365-246

Only women's age and the duration of infertility are the prognostic factors for the success rate of natural cycle IVF.

PURPOSE It is controversial who should be recommended to undergo natural cycle IVF (NC-IVF). Therefore, objective prognostic criteria which are already known at the time of counselling were defined. METHODS A retrospective observational study was performed with 201 couples (age 34.7 ± 4.1) undergoing 311 NC-IVF treatments with 201 transfers, corresponding to a transfer rate of 65.3%. The first cycle resulting in a transfer of one embryo was further analysed. Clinical pregnancy and live birth rates were analysed. RESULTS Pregnancy rate and live birth rates per first cycle were 21.9% and 13.2%, respectively. Groupwise comparison revealed the following clinical pregnancy/live birth rates per transfer cycle: duration of infertility 1-2 years 34.3/25.7%, 3-4 years 21.8/14.9% and > 4 years 9.1/4.5%. Women's age  < 34 years 26.3/22.4%, 34-37 years 25.7/18.9% and 38-42 years 15.7/3.9%. Linear regression analysis showed that pregnancy and live birth rate correlated negatively with the duration of infertility and that live birth rate but not pregnancy rate correlated negatively with increasing female age. In contrast, AMH and infertility factors did not correlate with the success rate. Statistically significant correlations remained if a multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed, supporting further that the duration of infertility (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.42-0.86) (P = 0.006) and female age (OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.78-0.95) (P = 0.008) are the predictors for live birth rates in NC-IVF transfer cycles. CONCLUSIONS Based on the success rates, NC-IVF can especially be recommended for women with short duration of infertility and young age, whereas older women and those with long duration of infertility are not the best candidates for this technique