Unemployment, Alcohol, and Tobacco Use: Separating State Dependence from Unobserved Heterogeneity

Previous literature presents mixed evidence on the effect of alcohol consumption on labor market outcomes. On one hand, heavy alcohol consumption has been shown to have detrimental effects on labor market outcomes. On the other hand, moderate consumption is positively associated with wages and employment. Despite substantial reduced form evidence, previous literature has not been able to separately identify the causal pathways linking moderate versus heavy alcohol use to labor market performance due to the lack of natural experiments that only target moderate versus heavy drinking, as well as limitations of available structural methods that model state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity. This study develops a multiple-equation dynamic discrete choice ordered logit model, which allows separate identification of the contribution of state dependence (within and between outcomes) and unobserved heterogeneity. I apply this newly-developed model to differentiate the effects of moderate and heavy drinking, after accounting for other correlated unobserved heterogeneity. This study finds that moderate alcohol use increases employment, which is consistent with moderate alcohol consumption being a venue for social capital accumulation. Policies that target alcohol consumption separately by dosage level may be beneficial to employment in ways that have not previously been expected

Treatment for Mental Health and Substance Use: Spillovers to Police Safety

We study the effect of community access to mental health and substance use treatment on police officer safety, which we proxy with on-duty assaults on officers. Police officers often serve as first-responders to people experiencing mental health and substance use crises, which can place police officers at risk. Combining agency-level data on police officer on-duty assaults and county-level data on the number of treatment centers that offer mental health and substance use care, we estimate two-way fixed-effects regressions and find that an additional four centers per county (the average annual increase observed in our data) leads to a 1.3% reduction per police agency in on-duty assaults against police officers. Established benefits of access to treatment for mental health and substance use appear to extend to the work environment of police officers

COVID-19 Has Strengthened the Relationship Between Alcohol Consumption and Domestic Violence

A large body of evidence documents a link between alcohol consumption and violence involving intimate partners and close family members. Recent scholarship suggests that since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent stay-at-home orders, there has been a marked increase in domestic violence. This research considers an important mechanism behind the increase in domestic violence during the COVID-19 pandemic: an increase in the riskiness of alcohol consumption. We combine 911 call data with newly available high-resolution microdata on visits to bars and liquor stores in Detroit, MI and find that the strength of the relationship between visits to alcohol outlets and domestic violence more than doubles starting in March 2020. We find more limited evidence with respect to non-domestic assaults, supporting our conclusion that it is not alcohol consumption per se but alcohol consumption at home that is a principal driver of domestic violence

Essays on Drug Use and Crime

This dissertation consists of three studies which analyze different aspects of risky behaviors and criminal participation.A longstanding question is whether alcohol and marijuana use by teenagers exerts a "stepping stone" effect, increasing the chances that they will use harder drugs in the future. Empirically, teenagers who use alcohol or marijuana in one period are more likely to use cocaine in the future. This pattern can be explained in one of two ways: by a causal effect of soft drug consumption on future consumption of hard drugs (i.e., a true stepping-stone effect) or by unobserved characteristics that make people more likely to use soft drugs at a relatively young age, and hard drugs at a later age (i.e., correlated unobserved heterogeneity). Distinguishing between these alternatives is highly policy relevant because, to the extent that there is a true stepping stone effect, policies that reduce the use of soft drugs by young people will have lasting impact on the use of hard drugs by adults. In Chapter 1, I use data from the National Longitudinal Study of Youth 1997 (NLSY97) to estimate a dynamic discrete choice model of teenager's use of alcohol, marijuana and cocaine over multiple years, and separately identify the contributions of state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity. I find modest-sized but statistically significant "stepping-stone" effects from softer to harder drugs that are largest among the youngest individuals in my sample. In contrast, I find little evidence of a stepping stone effect from cocaine to alcohol or marijuana. Simulations show that restricting alcohol and marijuana use at young age has a modest impact on reducing later cocaine use. Chapter 2 examines the role of an increase in alcohol consumption on drug initiation, hard drug consumption, and criminal participation. Using a regression discontinuity research design, I exploit the discontinuous increase in alcohol consumption at age 21 provided by the minimum legal drinking age. Using a survey of respondents during the year after they turned 21, I found that the probability of cocaine initiation decreased by 1.5 percentage points and the share of respondents who consumed cocaine in the last year decreased by 2 percentage points. Self-reported criminal participation, such as drug dealing, property destruction and attacking an individual, remained unchanged at age 21, with the exception of stealing, which decreased by 3 percentage points. These estimates are robust to a variety of specifications. Between 1993 and 1995, a number of states implemented "Three Strikes and You're Out" laws that enhance the sentence length for repeat violent offenders. Chapter 3 develops a simple dynamic model that suggests that these laws will lead to an increase in the number of criminal cases that go to trial, rather than being settled with a plea bargain, since the threat of higher future sentences increases the cost of a being convicted for a strikeable offense. I use data from the 1990-2006 State Court Processing Statistics database and a state-by-year difference-in-differences research design to compare the change in the likelihood of plea bargaining by violent offenders after the passage of Three Strikes laws, relative to the trend among non-violent offenders. I also separately examine effects for offenders with at least one prior violent conviction, and compare the effects of the Three Strike law in California, which imposes extra sentencing for any third felony (violent or not), versus the eleven other states with Three Strikes laws. The results show that the introduction of Three Strikes laws significantly reduce the number of criminal cases that are settle with a plea bargain, imposing a potentially costly burden on the legal system

Moda xpress

The purpose of this research work is to support the creation and implementation of a mobile application that provides an integral service. Moda Xpress is a virtual shop specialized in delivery for rental of dresses that allow the user to identify the outfits that fit their needs through the choice of colors, sizes and styles. The efforts had been focused on covering BC market segments of Metropolitan Lima, who are willing to receive professional advice in everything that concerns fashion and beauty.Trabajo de investigaciónEl presente trabajo de investigación tiene como propósito sustentar la creación e implementación de una aplicación móvil que brinde la alternativa de acompañamiento a través de un servicio integral. Moda Xpress, tienda virtual especializada en delivery para alquiler de vestidos, permitirá al usuario identificar atuendos que se ajusten a sus necesidades a través de la elección de colores, tallas y estilos asegurando que, al momento de la prueba, se optimice el tiempo en la elección. Los esfuerzos están enfocados en cubrir segmentos de mercado BC de Lima Metropolitana, quienes están dispuestos a recibir asesoría profesional en todo lo que a moda y belleza concierne