A 10-year cohort analysis of routine paediatric ART data in a rural South African setting

South Africa’s paediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) programme is managed using a monitoring and evaluation tool known as TIER.Net. This electronic system has several advantages over paper-based systems, allowing profiling of the paediatric ART programme over time. We analysed anonymized TIER.Net data for HIV-infected children aged <15 years who had initiated ART in a rural district of South Africa between 2005 and 2014. We performed Kaplan–Meier survival analysis to assess outcomes over time. Records of 5461 children were available for analysis; 3593 (66%) children were retained in care. Losses from the programme were higher in children initiated on treatment in more recent years (P < 0·0001) and in children aged ≤1 year at treatment initiation (P < 0·0001). For children aged <3 years, abacavir was associated with a significantly higher rate of loss from the programme compared to stavudine (hazard ratio 1·9, P < 0·001). Viral load was suppressed in 48–52% of the cohort, with no significant change over the years (P = 0·398). Analysis of TIER.Net data over time provides enhanced insights into the performance of the paediatric ART programme and highlights interventions to improve programme performance.This study was funded by the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under Cooperative Agreement number 674-A-12-00015 to the Anova Health Institute.http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayJournal?jid=HYGhb2016Microbiology and Plant Patholog

Advances in understanding of air–sea exchange and cycling of greenhouse gases in the upper ocean

The air–sea exchange and oceanic cycling of greenhouse gases (GHG), including carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4), carbon monoxide (CO), and nitrogen oxides (NOx ¼ NO þ NO2), are fundamental in controlling the evolution of the Earth’s atmospheric chemistry and climate. Significant advances have been made over the last 10 years in understanding, instrumentation and methods, as well as deciphering the production and consumption pathways of GHG in the upper ocean (including the surface and subsurface ocean down to approximately 1000 m). The global ocean under current conditions is now well established as a major sink for CO2, a major source for N2O and a minor source for both CH4 and CO. The importance of the ocean as a sink or source of NOx is largely unknown so far. There are still considerable uncertainties about the processes and their major drivers controlling the distributions of N2O, CH4, CO, and NOx in the upper ocean. Without having a fundamental understanding of oceanic GHG production and consumption pathways, our knowledge about the effects of ongoing major oceanic changes—warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and eutrophication—on the oceanic cycling and air–sea exchange of GHG remains rudimentary at best. We suggest that only through a comprehensive, coordinated, and interdisciplinary approach that includes data collection by global observation networks as well as joint process studies can the necessary data be generated to (1) identify the relevant microbial and phytoplankton communities, (2) quantify the rates of ocean GHG production and consumption pathways, (3) comprehend their major drivers, and (4) decipher economic and cultural implications of mitigation solution

Maternal and neonatal outcomes after caesarean delivery in the African Surgical Outcomes Study: a 7-day prospective observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Maternal and neonatal mortality is high in Africa, but few large, prospective studies have been done to investigate the risk factors associated with these poor maternal and neonatal outcomes. METHODS: A 7-day, international, prospective, observational cohort study was done in patients having caesarean delivery in 183 hospitals across 22 countries in Africa. The inclusion criteria were all consecutive patients (aged ≥18 years) admitted to participating centres having elective and non-elective caesarean delivery during the 7-day study cohort period. To ensure a representative sample, each hospital had to provide data for 90% of the eligible patients during the recruitment week. The primary outcome was in-hospital maternal mortality and complications, which were assessed by local investigators. The study was registered on the South African National Health Research Database, number KZ_2015RP7_22, and on ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT03044899. FINDINGS: Between February, 2016, and May, 2016, 3792 patients were recruited from hospitals across Africa. 3685 were included in the postoperative complications analysis (107 missing data) and 3684 were included in the maternal mortality analysis (108 missing data). These hospitals had a combined number of specialist surgeons, obstetricians, and anaesthetists totalling 0·7 per 100 000 population (IQR 0·2-2·0). Maternal mortality was 20 (0·5%) of 3684 patients (95% CI 0·3-0·8). Complications occurred in 633 (17·4%) of 3636 mothers (16·2-18·6), which were predominantly severe intraoperative and postoperative bleeding (136 [3·8%] of 3612 mothers). Maternal mortality was independently associated with a preoperative presentation of placenta praevia, placental abruption, ruptured uterus, antepartum haemorrhage (odds ratio 4·47 [95% CI 1·46-13·65]), and perioperative severe obstetric haemorrhage (5·87 [1·99-17·34]) or anaesthesia complications (11·47 (1·20-109·20]). Neonatal mortality was 153 (4·4%) of 3506 infants (95% CI 3·7-5·0). INTERPRETATION: Maternal mortality after caesarean delivery in Africa is 50 times higher than that of high-income countries and is driven by peripartum haemorrhage and anaesthesia complications. Neonatal mortality is double the global average. Early identification and appropriate management of mothers at risk of peripartum haemorrhage might improve maternal and neonatal outcomes in Africa. FUNDING: Medical Research Council of South Africa.Medical Research Council of South Africa

The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator: development and validation of a tool for identifying African surgical patients at risk of severe postoperative complications

Background: The African Surgical Outcomes Study (ASOS) showed that surgical patients in Africa have a mortality twice the global average. Existing risk assessment tools are not valid for use in this population because the pattern of risk for poor outcomes differs from high-income countries. The objective of this study was to derive and validate a simple, preoperative risk stratification tool to identify African surgical patients at risk for in-hospital postoperative mortality and severe complications. Methods: ASOS was a 7-day prospective cohort study of adult patients undergoing surgery in Africa. The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator was constructed with a multivariable logistic regression model for the outcome of in-hospital mortality and severe postoperative complications. The following preoperative risk factors were entered into the model; age, sex, smoking status, ASA physical status, preoperative chronic comorbid conditions, indication for surgery, urgency, severity, and type of surgery. Results: The model was derived from 8799 patients from 168 African hospitals. The composite outcome of severe postoperative complications and death occurred in 423/8799 (4.8%) patients. The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator includes the following risk factors: age, ASA physical status, indication for surgery, urgency, severity, and type of surgery. The model showed good discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.805 and good calibration with c-statistic corrected for optimism of 0.784. Conclusions: This simple preoperative risk calculator could be used to identify high-risk surgical patients in African hospitals and facilitate increased postoperative surveillance. © 2018 British Journal of Anaesthesia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Medical Research Council of South Africa gran