A decade of marine inorganic carbon chemistry observations in the northern Gulf of Alaska – insights into an environment in transition

As elsewhere in the global ocean, the Gulf of Alaska is experiencing the rapid onset of ocean acidification (OA) driven by oceanic absorption of anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. In support of OA research and monitoring, we present here a data product of marine inorganic carbon chemistry parameters measured from seawater samples taken during biannual cruises between 2008 and 2017 in the northern Gulf of Alaska. Samples were collected each May and September over the 10 year period using a conductivity, temperature, depth (CTD) profiler coupled with a Niskin bottle rosette at stations including a long-term hydrographic survey transect known as the Gulf of Alaska (GAK) Line. This dataset includes discrete seawater measurements such as dissolved inorganic carbon and total alkalinity, which allows the calculation of other marine carbon parameters, including carbonate mineral saturation states, carbon dioxide (CO2), and pH. Cumulative daily Bakun upwelling indices illustrate the pattern of downwelling in the northern Gulf of Alaska, with a period of relaxation spanning between the May and September cruises. The observed time and space variability impart challenges for disentangling the OA signal despite this dataset spanning a decade. However, this data product greatly enhances our understanding of seasonal and interannual variability in the marine inorganic carbon system parameters. The product can also aid in the ground truthing of biogeochemical models, refining estimates of sea–air CO2 exchange, and determining appropriate CO2 parameter ranges for experiments targeting potentially vulnerable species

Autonomous Seawater \u3ci\u3ep\u3c/i\u3eCO\u3csub\u3e2\u3c/sub\u3e and pH Time Series From 40 Surface Buoys and the Emergence of Anthropogenic Trends

Ship-based time series, some now approaching over 3 decades long, are critical climate records that have dramatically improved our ability to characterize natural and anthropogenic drivers of ocean carbon dioxide (CO2) uptake and biogeochemical processes. Advancements in autonomous marine carbon sensors and technologies over the last 2 decades have led to the expansion of observations at fixed time series sites, thereby improving the capability of characterizing sub-seasonal variability in the ocean. Here , we present a data product of 40 individual autonomous moored surface ocean pCO2 (partial pressure of CO2) time series established between 2004 and 2013, 17 also include autonomous pH measurements. These time series characterie a wide range of surface ocean carbonate conditions in diffferent oceanic (17 sites), coastal (13 sites), and coral reef (10 sites) regimes. A time of trend emergence (ToE) methodology applied ot the time series that exhibit well-constrained daily to interannual variability and an estimate of decadal variability indicates that the length of sustained observations necessary to detect statistically significant anthropogenic trends varies by marine environment. The ToE estisites, and 9 to 22 years at the coral reef sites. Only two open ocean pCO2 and pH range from 8 to 15 years at the open ocean sites, 16 to 41 years at the coastal sites, and 9 to 22 years at the coral reef sites. Only two open ocean pCO2 time series, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Hawaii Ocean Time-series Station (WHOTS) in the subtropical North Pacific and Stratus n the South Pacific gyre, have been deployed longer than the estimated trend detection time and, for these, deseasoned monthly means show estimated anthropogenic trends of 1.9 ± 0.3 and 1.6 ± 0.3 μatm yr-1, respectively. In the future, it is possible that updates to this product will allow for the estimation of anthropogenic trends at more sites; however, the product currently provides a valuable tool in an accessible format for evaluating climatology and natural variability of surface ocean carbonate chemistry in a variety of regions. Data are available at https://doi.org/10.7289/V5DB8043 and https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/ocads/oceans/Moorings/ndp097.html (Sutton et al., 2018)

Global Carbon Budget 2022

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO$_2$) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO$_2$ emissions (E$_{FOS}$) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (E$_{LUC}$), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO$_2$ concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (G$_{ATM}$) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO$_2$ sink (S$_{OCEAN}$) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO$_2$ sink (S$_{LAND}$) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B$_{IM}$), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, E$_{FOS}$ increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr$^{−1}$ (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr$^{−1}$ when the cement carbonation sink is included), and E$_{LUC}$ was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr$^{−1}$, for a total anthropogenic CO$_2$ emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr$^{−1}$ (40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO$_2$). Also, for 2021, G$_{ATM}$ was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr$^{−1}$ (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr$^{−1}$), S$_{OCEAN}$ was 2.9  ± 0.4 GtC yr$^{−1}$, and S$_{LAND}$ was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr$^{−1}$, with a B$_{IM}$ of −0.6 GtC yr$^{−1}$ (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO$_2$ concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in E$_{FOS}$ relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %) globally and atmospheric CO$_2$ concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr$^{−1}$ persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO$_2$ fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO$_2$ flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b)

Mangrove ecosystem changes during the Holocene at Spanish Lookout Cay, Belize

Mangroves are halophytic plants living at the land-sea interface and are therefore natural trackers of sea-level. Multiple proxies of a continuous (8 m) mangrove peat core (BT-79) from Spanish Lookout Cay, Belize illustrate mangrove ecosystem changes during the Holocene. Radiocarbon measurements show this site was colonized by mangroves similar to 8000 cal. yrs BP, with a significant decrease in the peat accumulation rate from similar to 6000 to 1000 cal. yrs BR Stratigraphic characteristics of this peat core such as bulk density, magnetic susceptibility, and loss on ignition show relative uniformity, inferring an uninterrupted mangrove ecosystem during a majority of the Holocene. This is supported by pollen data from BT-79 that show that the site has been consistently dominated by Rhizophora mangle (red mangrove), with Avicennia germinans (black mangrove) and Laguncularia racemosa (white mangrove) present as well. Subfossil R. mangle leaves are used for stable nitrogen, carbon, and oxygen isotope (delta N-15, delta C-13, and delta O-18) analyses. delta N-15 and delta C-13 values provide a proxy of this plant's past physiology and stand structure showing that dwarf (delta N-15< - 3 parts per thousand) and tall (delta C-13 < - 27 parts per thousand) R. mangle stands were previously present at the site, which are a result of nutrient limitations that we equate with seawater inundation. delta O-18 values show differences in source water of R. mangle, with higher values attributed to the source water being composed of a greater proportion of seawater relative to precipitation. A decrease in inundation at the site is shown by lower delta O-18 values (<19 parts per thousand) from similar to 7000 to similar to 1000 cal. yrs BP that covary with the decreased sedimentation rate. Existing Caribbean sea-level data do not show evidence of a decrease in the rate of relative sea-level rise or fluctuations that we take to be the major causes of environmental changes at site BT-79. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.U.S. National Science Foundation [DEB 0533974