A Modified Fama and French (1993) Three-factor Asset Pricing Model: Evidence from the UK Equity Market

The objective of this study is to examine the modified Fama and French (1993) three-factor asset pricing model, suggested by Cremers et al. (2012), in the UK equity market, over the period from October 1980 to June 2015. The article follows the correct Lewellen et al. (2010) framework for evaluating asset pricing models. In contrast to Michou et al. (2007) and Gregory et al. (2013), the results suggest the use of the modified Fama and French (1993) three-factor asset pricing model in practical applications that require the estimation of expected returns in the UK equity market. The results are robust using the same sample period in Gregory et al. (2013). Overall, the result suggests to follow the correct Lewellen et al. (2010) framework for evaluating asset pricing models in pricing the UK equity market returns

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Background: Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. // Methods: We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung's disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. // Findings: We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung's disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middle-income countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in low-income countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. // Interpretation: Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

Forecasting the effects of smoking prevalence scenarios on years of life lost and life expectancy from 2022 to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Smoking is the leading behavioural risk factor for mortality globally, accounting for more than 175 million deaths and nearly 4·30 billion years of life lost (YLLs) from 1990 to 2021. The pace of decline in smoking prevalence has slowed in recent years for many countries, and although strategies have recently been proposed to achieve tobacco-free generations, none have been implemented to date. Assessing what could happen if current trends in smoking prevalence persist, and what could happen if additional smoking prevalence reductions occur, is important for communicating the effect of potential smoking policies. Methods: In this analysis, we use the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Future Health Scenarios platform to forecast the effects of three smoking prevalence scenarios on all-cause and cause-specific YLLs and life expectancy at birth until 2050. YLLs were computed for each scenario using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 reference life table and forecasts of cause-specific mortality under each scenario. The reference scenario forecasts what could occur if past smoking prevalence and other risk factor trends continue, the Tobacco Smoking Elimination as of 2023 (Elimination-2023) scenario quantifies the maximum potential future health benefits from assuming zero percent smoking prevalence from 2023 onwards, whereas the Tobacco Smoking Elimination by 2050 (Elimination-2050) scenario provides estimates for countries considering policies to steadily reduce smoking prevalence to 5%. Together, these scenarios underscore the magnitude of health benefits that could be reached by 2050 if countries take decisive action to eliminate smoking. The 95% uncertainty interval (UI) of estimates is based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of draws that were carried through the multistage computational framework. Findings: Global age-standardised smoking prevalence was estimated to be 28·5% (95% UI 27·9–29·1) among males and 5·96% (5·76–6·21) among females in 2022. In the reference scenario, smoking prevalence declined by 25·9% (25·2–26·6) among males, and 30·0% (26·1–32·1) among females from 2022 to 2050. Under this scenario, we forecast a cumulative 29·3 billion (95% UI 26·8–32·4) overall YLLs among males and 22·2 billion (20·1–24·6) YLLs among females over this period. Life expectancy at birth under this scenario would increase from 73·6 years (95% UI 72·8–74·4) in 2022 to 78·3 years (75·9–80·3) in 2050. Under our Elimination-2023 scenario, we forecast 2·04 billion (95% UI 1·90–2·21) fewer cumulative YLLs by 2050 compared with the reference scenario, and life expectancy at birth would increase to 77·6 years (95% UI 75·1–79·6) among males and 81·0 years (78·5–83·1) among females. Under our Elimination-2050 scenario, we forecast 735 million (675–808) and 141 million (131–154) cumulative YLLs would be avoided among males and females, respectively. Life expectancy in 2050 would increase to 77·1 years (95% UI 74·6–79·0) among males and 80·8 years (78·3–82·9) among females. Interpretation: Existing tobacco policies must be maintained if smoking prevalence is to continue to decline as forecast by the reference scenario. In addition, substantial smoking-attributable burden can be avoided by accelerating the pace of smoking elimination. Implementation of new tobacco control policies are crucial in avoiding additional smoking-attributable burden in the coming decades and to ensure that the gains won over the past three decades are not lost

The impact of inflation on the financial sector development: Empirical evidence from Jordan

In any economy, the financial sector plays a fundamentally important role in achieving economic growth and thus achieving sustainable economic development. Therefore, interest in this sector and the improvement of its performance is considered a strategic goal for any country. Accordingly, this study aims to analyze the short- and long-run impacts of inflation on the development of this sector on the Jordanian economy for the period from 1993 to 2018. To do so, the study uses an auto-regressive distributed lag bound testing approach, which is considered an advanced analytical model. Empirical findings confirmed that there is a statistically significant long- and short-run negative effect of inflation on financial sector development. On the contrary, there is a statistical significant long- and short-run positive impact of economic growth on financial sector performance. In addition, results confirmed that there is a positive support of the previous financial sector policies on financial sector performance in the current period

Diabetic kidney disease in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: a cross-sectional study

Abstract Aim Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is a major long-term complication of diabetes mellitus (DM). Given the paucity of data on DKD in Jordan, we aimed to evaluate the prevalence, characteristics and correlates of DKD in Jordanian patients with type 2 DM. Methods This cross-sectional study included 1398 adult patients with type 2 DM who sought medical advice in the endocrinology clinic between March and September 2019. Demographic, clinical and laboratory data were reviewed. DKD was defined as reduced eGFR, and/or albuminuria. Three regression models were constructed to identify factors associated with CKD stages, albuminuria and DKD. Results Overall, 701 (50.14%) patients had DKD, with a median age of 59.71 ± 11.36  years. Older age, high triglycerides, and low high-density lipoprotein were associated with DKD (multivariable odds ratio [OR]: 1.02, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01–1.03, p < 0.01; OR: 1.1, 95% CI: 1.01–1.2; and OR: 0.98, 95% CI: 0.97–0.99, p < 0.01 respectively). Metformin and renin-angiotensin system blockers were negatively associated with albuminuria and chronic kidney disease stages (p < 0.01). Conclusion Our study demonstrated that approximately one half of patients with type 2 DM had DKD. Further studies are necessary to understand this high prevalence and the underlying factors. Future research are needed to assess implementing targeted community-based intervention

Synthesis and Biological Activity of Some 3-(4-(Substituted)-piperazin-1-yl)cinnolines

A new series of 6-substituted-4-methyl-3-(4-arylpiperazin-1-yl)cinnolines 8–10 were synthesized as potential antifungal agents via intramolecular cyclization of the respective 1-(2-arylhydrazono)-1-(4-arylpiperazin-1-yl)propan-2-ones 5–7, mediated by polyphosphoric acid (PPA). The amidrazones themselves were synthesized via direct interaction of the appropriate hydrazonoyl chlorides 4a–d with the corresponding N-substituted piperazine in the presence of triethylamine. The structures of the new prepared compounds were confirmed by elemental analyses, 1H-NMR, 13C-NMR, and ESI-HRMS spectral data. The antitumor, antibacterial, and antifungal activity of the newly synthesized compounds was evaluated