Addressing the Challenge of P-Value and Sample Size when the Significance is Borderline: The Test of Random Duplication of Participants as a New Approach

The issue of borderline p-value seems to divide health scientists into two schools of thought. One school of thought argues that when the p-value is greater than or equal to the statistical significance cut-off level of 0.05, it should not be considered statistically significant and the null hypothesis should be accepted no matter how close the p-value is to the 0.05. The other school of thought believes that by doing so one might be committing a Type 2 error and possibly missing valuable information. In this paper, we discuss an approach to address this issue and suggest the test of random duplication of participants as a way to interpret study outcomes when the statistical significance is borderline. This discussion shows the irrefutability of the concept of borderline statistical significance, however, it is important that one demonstrates whether a borderline statistical significance is truly borderline or not. Since the absence of statistical significance is not necessarily evidence of absence of effect, one needs to double check if a borderline statistical significance is indeed borderline or not. The p-value should not be looked at as a rule of thumb for accepting or rejecting the null hypothesis but rather as a guide for further action or analysis that leads to correct conclusions

The utility of a modified WHO TB screening tool among children at a Botswana child welfare clinic

Background: In high TB/HIV settings, the increased risk for TB amongst children exposed to HIV has been established through biomedical tests. Screening HIV exposed children for TB can improve early childhood TB detection and treatment. Objective: This study assessed the utility of a modified World Health Organization (WHO) tool by including HIV variables, to determine TB exposure amongst HIV exposed children presenting to a \u201cWell Child\u201d Clinic (CWC). Methods: Clinical data were obtained from medical records and/or from the caregivers of children presenting to CWC. Data was analyzed to explore factors associated with positive screening for TB, including being exposed to HIV and current HIV status. Results: Five percent (55/1100) screened reported a close TB contact and 21% (n=231) had positive TB symptom screen. History of close TB contact was a risk factor for positive screening for TB symptoms (OR 1.89 CI 1.05-3.4) while being HIV negative was protective (OR 0.3, Cl 0.19-0.62). HIV exposure was associated with increased risk of TB exposure (OR 2.9 CI 1.61-5.19). Conclusion: Integrating HIV variables in the existing WHO screening tool for childhood TB can be useful in early detection and treatment of TB in HIV exposed children in resource limited settings

High Mortality in HIV-Associated Cryptococcal Meningitis Patients Treated With Amphotericin B-Based Therapy Under Routine Care Conditions in Africa.

BACKGROUND: Cryptococcal meningitis (CM) causes 10%-20% of HIV-related deaths in Africa. Due to limited access to liposomal amphotericin and flucytosine, most African treatment guidelines recommend amphotericin B deoxycholate (AmB-d) plus high-dose fluconazole; outcomes with this treatment regimen in routine care settings have not been well described. METHODS: Electronic national death registry data and computerized medical records were used to retrospectively collect demographic, laboratory, and 1-year outcome data from all patients with CM between 2012 and 2014 at Botswana's main referral hospital, when recommended treatment for CM was AmB-d 1 mg/kg/d plus fluconazole 800 mg/d for 14 days. Cumulative survival was estimated at 2 weeks, 10 weeks, and 1 year. RESULTS: There were 283 episodes of CM among 236 individuals; 69% (163/236) were male, and the median age was 36 years. All patients were HIV-infected, with a median CD4 count of 39 cells/mm3. Two hundred fifteen person-years of follow-up data were captured for the 236 CM patients. Complete outcome data were available for 233 patients (99%) at 2 weeks, 224 patients (95%) at 10 weeks, and 219 patients (93%) at 1 year. Cumulative mortality was 26% (95% confidence interval [CI], 20%-32%) at 2 weeks, 50% (95% CI, 43%-57%) at 10 weeks, and 65% (95% CI, 58%-71%) at 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality rates following HIV-associated CM treated with AmB-d and fluconazole in a routine health care setting in Botswana were very high. The findings highlight the inadequacies of current antifungal treatments for HIV-associated CM and underscore the difficulties of administering and monitoring intravenous amphotericin B deoxycholate therapy in resource-poor settings

Evaluation of a Novel Semiquantitative Cryptococcal Antigen Lateral Flow Assay in Patients with Advanced HIV Disease.

Higher cryptococcal antigen (CrAg) titers are strongly associated with mortality risk in individuals with HIV-associated cryptococcal disease. Rapid tests to quantify CrAg levels may provide important prognostic information and enable treatment stratification. We performed a laboratory-based validation of the IMMY semiquantitative cryptococcal antigen (CrAgSQ) lateral flow assay (LFA) against the current gold standard CrAg tests. We assessed the diagnostic accuracy of the CrAgSQ in HIV-positive individuals undergoing CrAg screening, determined the relationship between CrAgSQ scores and dilutional CrAg titers, assessed interrater reliability, and determined the clinical correlates of CrAgSQ scores. A total of 872 plasma samples were tested using both the CrAgSQ LFA and the conventional IMMY CrAg LFA, of which 692 were sequential samples from HIV-positive individuals undergoing CrAg screening and an additional 180 were known CrAg-positive plasma samples archived from prior studies. Interrater agreement in CrAgSQ reading was excellent (98.17% agreement, Cohen's kappa 0.962, P?<?0.001). Using the IMMY CrAg LFA as a reference standard, CrAgSQ was 93.0% sensitive (95% confidence interval [CI] 80.9% to 98.5%) and 93.8% specific (95% CI, 91.7% to 95.6%). After reclassification of discordant results using CrAg enzyme immunoassay testing, the sensitivity was 98.1% (95% CI, 90.1% to 100%) and specificity 95.8% (95% CI, 93.9% to 97.2%). The median CrAg titers for semiquantitative score categories (1+ to 4+) were 1:10 (interquartile range [IQR], 1:5 to 1:20) in the CrAgSQ 1+ category, 1:40 (IQR, 1:20 to 1:80) in the CrAgSQ 2+ category, 1:640 (IQR, 1:160 to 1:2,560) in the CrAgSQ 3+ category, and 1:5,120 (IQR, 1:2,560 to 1:30,720) in the CrAgSQ 4+ category. Increasing CrAgSQ scores were strongly associated with 10-week mortality. The IMMY CrAgSQ test had high sensitivity and specificity compared to the results for the IMMY CrAg LFA and provided CrAg scores that were associated with both conventional CrAg titers and clinical outcomes

Prevalence and Sequelae of Cryptococcal Antigenemia in Antiretroviral Therapy-Experienced Populations: An Evaluation of Reflex Cryptococcal Antigen Screening in Botswana.

BACKGROUND: Evidence to inform cryptococcal antigen (CrAg)-screening guidelines among ART-experienced populations is lacking. We performed a study evaluating the utility of reflex CrAg screening in Gaborone, Botswana. METHODS: CD4 count data were collected from the HIV reference laboratory from 2014-2016. CrAg screening was performed on samples with CD4 ?100 cells/µL beginning January 2015. The proportion of CD4 counts ?100 cells/µL was determined and the frequency of repeat CrAg testing described. Analyses ascertained the impact of ART status on CrAg prevalence and outcomes, and whether CrAg titers could be used for risk stratification. RESULTS: Overall, 5.6% (3335/59 300) of individuals tested had CD4 ?100 cells/?L; 2108 samples with CD4 ?100 cells/?L from 1645 unique patients were CrAg tested. Over half of samples were from ART-experienced individuals: 40.9% (863) on ART and 12.1% (255) defaulters; 22% (463) of CrAg tests were on repeat samples. CrAg prevalence was 4.8% (72/1494; 95% CI, 3.8-6.0%) among outpatients and 21.9% (32/151; 95% CI, 15.3-28.5%) among inpatients. CrAg prevalence rates did not differ by ART status, but 6-month mortality was significantly lower in CrAg-positive individuals on ART at screening. Ten CrAg positives were identified through repeat testing. A CrAg titer cutoff ?1:80 provided the best discrimination for 6-month survival. CONCLUSIONS: CrAg-positivity rates in an ART-experienced population were comparable to those seen in ART-naive populations. Repeat screening identified individuals who seroconverted to CrAg positivity and were at risk of cryptococcal disease. CrAg titers ?1:80 can help identify the individuals at highest risk of death for more intensive management

Causes of Pediatric Meningitis in Botswana: Results From a 16-Year National Meningitis Audit.

BACKGROUND: Central nervous system infections are an important cause of childhood morbidity and mortality in high HIV-prevalence settings of Africa. We evaluated the epidemiology of pediatric meningitis in Botswana during the rollout of antiretroviral therapy, pneumococcal conjugate vaccine and Haemophilus influenzae type B (HiB) vaccine. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study of children (<15 years old) evaluated for meningitis by cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) examination from 2000 to 2015, with complete national records for 2013-2014. Clinical and laboratory characteristics of microbiologically confirmed and culture-negative meningitis were described and incidence of Streptococcus pneumoniae, H. influenzae and cryptococcal meningitis was estimated for 2013-2014. RESULTS: A total of 6796 unique cases were identified. Median age was 1 year [interquartile range 0-3]; 10.4% (435/4186) of children with available HIV-related records were known HIV-infected. Overall, 30.4% (2067/6796) had abnormal CSF findings (positive microbiologic testing or CSF pleocytosis). Ten percent (651/6796) had a confirmed microbiologic diagnosis; including 26.9% (175/651) Cryptococcus, 18.9% (123/651) S. pneumoniae, 20.3% (132/651) H. influenzae and 1.1% (7/651) Mycobacterium tuberculosis. During 2013-2014, national cryptococcal meningitis incidence was 1.3 cases per 100,000 person-years (95% confidence interval, 0.8-2.1) and pneumococcal meningitis incidence 0.7 per 100,000 person-years (95% confidence interval, 0.3-1.3), with no HiB meningitis diagnosed. CONCLUSIONS: Following HiB vaccination, a marked decline in microbiologically confirmed cases of H. influenzae meningitis occurred. Cryptococcal meningitis remains the most common confirmed etiology, demonstrating gaps in prevention-of-mother-to-child transmission and early HIV diagnosis. The high proportion of abnormal CSF samples with no microbiologic diagnosis highlights limitation in available diagnostics

Mortality in adult patients with culture-positive and culture-negative meningitis in the Botswana national meningitis survey: a prevalent cohort study.

BACKGROUND: CNS infections are a leading cause of HIV-related deaths in sub-Saharan Africa, but causes and outcomes are poorly defined. We aimed to determine mortality and predictors of mortality in adults evaluated for meningitis in Botswana, which has an estimated 23% HIV prevalence among adults. METHODS: In this prevalent cohort study, patient records from 2004-15 were sampled from the Botswana national meningitis survey, a nationwide audit of all cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) laboratory records from patients receiving a lumbar puncture for evaluation of meningitis. Data from all patients with culture-confirmed pneumococcal and tuberculous meningitis, and all patients with culture-negative meningitis with CSF white cell count (WCC) above 20 cells per μL were included in our analyses, in addition to a random selection of patients with culture-negative CSF and CSF WCC of up to 20 cells per μL. We used patient national identification numbers to link CSF laboratory records from the national meningitis survey to patient vital registry and HIV databases. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate clinical and laboratory predictors of mortality. FINDINGS: We included data from 238 patients with culture-confirmed pneumococcal meningitis, 48 with culture-confirmed tuberculous meningitis, and 2900 with culture-negative CSF (including 1691 with CSF WCC of up to 20 cells per μL and 1209 with CSF WCC above 20 cells per μL). Median age was 37 years (IQR 31-46), 1605 (50%) of 3184 patients were male, 2188 (72%) of 3023 patients with registry linkage had documentation of HIV infection, and median CD4 count was 139 cells per μL (IQR 63-271). 10-week and 1-year mortality was 47% (112 of 238) and 49% (117 of 238) for pneumococcal meningitis, 46% (22 of 48) and 56% (27 of 48) for tuberculous meningitis, and 41% (1181 of 2900) and 49% (1408 of 2900) for culture-negative patients. When the analysis of patients with culture-negative CSF was restricted to those with known HIV infection, WCC (0-20 cells per μL vs >20 cells per μL) was not predictive of mortality (average hazard ratio 0·93, 95% CI 0·80-1·09). INTERPRETATION: Mortality from pneumococcal, tuberculous, and culture-negative meningitis was high in this setting of high HIV prevalence. There is an urgent need for improved access to diagnostics, to better define aetiologies and develop novel diagnostic tools and treatment algorithms. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health, President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, National Institute for Health Research

Epidemiology of adult meningitis during antiretroviral therapy scale-up in southern Africa: Results from the Botswana national meningitis survey.

OBJECTIVES: Data on meningitis epidemiology in high HIV-prevalence African settings following antiretroviral therapy scale-up are lacking. We described epidemiology of adult meningitis in Botswana over a 16-year period. METHODS: Laboratory records for adults undergoing lumbar puncture (LP) 2000-2015 were collected, with complete national data 2013-2014. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) findings and linked HIV-data were described, and national incidence figures estimated for 2013-2014. Temporal trends in meningitis were evaluated. RESULTS: Of 21,560 adults evaluated, 41% (8759/21,560) had abnormal CSF findings with positive microbiological testing and/or pleocytosis; 43% (3755/8759) of these had no confirmed microbiological diagnosis. Of the 5004 microbiologically-confirmed meningitis cases, 89% (4432/5004) were cryptococcal (CM) and 8% (382/5004) pneumococcal (PM). Seventy-three percent (9525/13,033) of individuals undergoing LP with identifiers for HIV registry linkage had documented HIV-infection. Incidence of LP for meningitis evaluation in Botswana 2013-2014 was 142.6/100,000 person-years (95%CI:138.3-147.1); incidence of CM was 25.0/100,000 (95%CI:23.2-26.9), and incidence of PM was 2.7/100,000 (95%CI:2.4-3.1). In contrast to previously reported declines in CM incidence with ART roll-out, no significant temporal decline in pneumococcal or culture-negative meningitis was observed. CONCLUSIONS: CM remained the predominant identified aetiology of meningitis despite ART scale-up. A high proportion of cases had abnormal CSF with negative microbiological evaluation

Population pharmacokinetics of liposomal amphotericin B in adults with HIV-associated cryptococcal meningoencephalitis

BackgroundSingle, high-dose liposomal amphotericin B (LAmB; AmBisome, Gilead Sciences) has demonstrated non-inferiority to amphotericin B deoxycholate in combination with other antifungals for averting all-cause mortality from HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis. There are limited data on the pharmacokinetics (PK) of AmBisome. The aim of this study was to describe population PK of AmBisome and conduct a meta-analysis of the available studies to suggest the optimal dosing for cryptococcal meningoencephalitis.MethodsData from a Phase II and Phase III trial of high-dose, short-course AmBisome for cryptococcal meningoencephalitis were combined to develop a population PK model. A search was conducted for trials of AmBisome monotherapy and meta-analysis of clinical outcome data was performed.ResultsA two-compartment model with first-order clearance of drug from the central compartment fitted the data best and enabled the extent of inter-individual variability in PK to be quantified. Mean (SD) population PK parameter estimates were: clearance 0.416 (0.363)  L/h; volume of distribution 4.566 (4.518) L; first-order transfer of drug from central to peripheral compartments 2.222 (3.351)  h-1, and from peripheral to central compartment 2.951 (4.070)  h-1. Data for the meta-analysis were insufficient to suggest optimal dosing of AmBisome for cryptococcal meningoencephalitis.ConclusionsThis study provides novel insight into the PK of AmBisome at the population level and the variability therein. Our analysis also serves to highlight the paucity of data available on the pharmacodynamics (PD) of AmBisome and underscores the importance of thorough and detailed PK/PD analysis in the development of novel antifungals, by demonstrating the challenges associated with post hoc PK/PD analysis

Advanced Human Immunodeficiency Virus Disease in Botswana Following Successful Antiretroviral Therapy Rollout: Incidence of and Temporal Trends in Cryptococcal Meningitis.

Background: Botswana has a well-developed antiretroviral therapy (ART) program that serves as a regional model. With wide ART availability, the burden of advanced human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and associated opportunistic infections would be expected to decline. We performed a nationwide surveillance study to determine the national incidence of cryptococcal meningitis (CM), and describe characteristics of cases during 2000-2014 and temporal trends at 2 national referral hospitals. Methods: Cerebrospinal fluid data from all 37 laboratories performing meningitis diagnostics in Botswana were collected from the period 2000-2014 to identify cases of CM. Basic demographic and laboratory data were recorded. Complete national data from 2013-2014 were used to calculate national incidence using UNAIDS population estimates. Temporal trends in cases were derived from national referral centers in the period 2004-2014. Results: A total of 5296 episodes of CM were observed in 4702 individuals; 60.6% were male, and median age was 36 years. Overall 2013-2014 incidence was 17.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 16.6-19.2) cases per 100000 person-years. In the HIV-infected population, incidence was 96.8 (95% CI, 90.0-104.0) cases per 100000 person-years; male predominance was seen across CD4 strata. At national referral hospitals, cases decreased during 2007-2009 but stabilized during 2010-2014. Conclusions: Despite excellent ART coverage in Botswana, there is still a substantial burden of advanced HIV, with 2013-2014 incidence of CM comparable to pre-ART era rates in South Africa. Our findings suggest that a key population of individuals, often men, is developing advanced disease and associated opportunistic infections due to a failure to effectively engage in care, highlighting the need for differentiated care models