Below replacement-level fertility in Iran: progress and prospects

In 1996, four provinces of Iran experienced below replacement level fertility. Since the early 1980s, these provinces have recorded lower fertility than the national level. How and under what condition has fertility declined to such a low level in these provinces? It may be of considerable interest to examine whether these provinces can be regarded as the leaders of the fertility transition in Iran. What are the likely effects of below-replacement fertility on population growth in Iran in the short term? Will Iran, as a whole, experience below replacement fertility in the near future? What would be the reaction of the government if below-replacement level fertility is reached in the near future? This paper will first, assess and analyse the fertility trends in the provinces of Isfahan, Gilan, Semnan and Tehran as compared with the national level during the period 1972-1996. Using available data, an attempt will also be made to estimate recent fertility levels for these provinces. Second, demographic and socio-economic characteristics, as well as contraceptive use, in these provinces will be reviewed; female singulate mean age at marriage and age-specific proportions married for 1976, 1986 and 1996 will then be examined. Third, the prospects of low fertility in Iran as well as the likely reaction of the government on low fertility will be discussed thereafter

Women\u27s Human Capital and Economic Growth in the Middle East and North Africa

The process of demographic transition has increased the share of the working-age population in Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This situation has created an opportunity for economic growth, called the demographic dividend. Global comparisons show that a favorable age structure has not always resulted in a boost in economic growth. In order to take a full advantage of the MENA’s demographic dividend, it is important to identify different factors contributing to economic growth in this region. Investment in women’s human capital is expected to have important implications for the region’s economic growth and for maximizing the benefits created by the demographic dividend. Using a range of data sources, this paper aims to determine the association between women’s human capital (measured by adult educational attainment and health status) and economic growth (measured by gross national income per capita) in MENA. The findings show a positive association between these two. Specifically, the national-level income is generally higher in countries with lower maternal mortality and higher female literacy, female tertiary education, female life and healthy life expectancies at birth and professional childbirth attendance. Thus, investment in women’s human capital can accelerate the pace of development in MENA

Food Insecurity and Its Sociodemographic Correlates among Afghan Immigrants in Iran

The study determined the prevalence of food insecurity and its sociodemographic determinants among Afghan immigrants in two major cities of Iran. This cross-sectional study was conducted on a sample of 310 adult females from immigrant Afghan households in Tehran (n=155) and Mashhad (n=155), who were recruited through multistage sampling. Data were collected through face-to-face interviews, using a questionnaire. Food security was measured by a locally-adapted Household Food Insecurity Access Scale. More than 60% suffered from moderate-to-severe food insecurity, 37% were mildly food-insecure while about 23% were food-secure. Food insecurity was significantly more prevalent in female-headed households, households whose head and spouse had lower level of education, belonged to the Sunni sect, and those with illegal residential status, unemployment/low job status, not owning their house, low socioeconomic status (SES), and living in Mashhad. Prevalence of food insecurity was relatively high among Afghan immigrants in Iran. This calls for the need to develop community food security strategies for ensuring their short- and long-term health

La fécondité en Iran, l’autre révolution

Au tournant du XXe siècle, l’Iran était peuplé d’environ 10 millions d’habitants ; sa population en comptait 13 millions en 1933, 34 millions en 1976, 49 millions en 1986 et 60 millions en 1996, soit six fois plus qu’au début du siècle. Au cours des trente dernières années, le pays a par ailleurs vécu plusieurs bouleversements politiques dont les principaux sont la révolution islamique de 1979 et la guerre avec l’Irak de 1980 à 1988. La République islamique d’Iran connaît depuis peu une transition démographique accélérée dont la vitesse a surpris les observateurs occidentaux. La fécondité est tombée de plus de 6 enfants par femme au milieu des années 1980 à 2,1 en 2000. Cette baisse a été enregistrée dans toutes les provinces du pays, aussi bien dans les zones rurales qu’urbaines. Pourquoi et comment la fécondité iranienne a-t-elle pu connaître un tel déclin en un temps si court ? Et comment la politique et la démographie sont-elles liées dans ce pays ? Après un aperçu de la politique démographique des trente dernières années, nous retracerons l’évolution de la fécondité au cours de la même période et proposerons quelques explications possibles à ce phénomène

The fertility revolution in Iran

After the turn of the 20th century, according to estimations, the population of Iran was around 10 million. In 1933, it had increased to 34 million and in 1986 to 49 million. by 1996, the iranian population has reached 60 million, a more than six-fold increase within a century. The last three decades of the country’s history have been marked by major political changes, the main being the Islamic Revolution in 1979 and the war with Iraq from 1980 to 1988

The fertility of immigrant women in Australia

The 1991 census did not ask women how many children they had ever had. Because of this, there has been a gap in our understanding of fertility trends. The author uses the `own-children' method which allows him to fill this gap. He analyses the fertility of immigrant women in Australia and discovers that, by 1991, most had lower fertility than Australian-born women. Most also had lower fertility than women of a comparable age in their countries of origin. Second-generation `migrants' had converged even more closely to the Australian norm

Return to Afghanistan? : a study of Afghans living in Tehran

/Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi ...Parallel als Buch-Ausg. erschiene

Return to Afghanistan? : a study of Afghans living in Zahedan, Islamic Republic of Iran

Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavaz