Diseño de un seguro de ingresos de toda la granja para cultivos agrícolas en la provincia de Zanjan de Irán

[EN] The purpose of this article is to design and empirically evaluate the Whole Farm Insurance (WFI) over the conventional insurance programs in Zanjan province of Iran. Historical farm-level and county-level data were used to estimate yield and price density functions. Both parametric and non-parametric methods were applied for predicting the future values and the PQH simulation method was utilized to calculate premium rates. Results revealed that loss ratios of the WFI are lower for farmers who insured more than one crop. Additionally, utilizing WFI reduces premiums. Moreover, premiums obtained from nonparametric method are relatively lower compared to the parametric approach.[ES] El propósito de este artículo es diseñar y evaluar empíricamente el Seguro Agrario Integral (SAI) con respecto a los programas de seguros convencionales en la provincia de Zanjan de Irán. Se usaron datos históricos a nivel de explotación y de comarca para estimar las funciones de rendimiento y de densidad de precios. Se aplicaron métodos paramétricos y no paramétricos para predecir los valores futuros y se utilizó el método de simulación SAI para calcular las tasas de primas. Los resultados revelaron que los índices de pérdida del SAI son más bajos para los agricultores que aseguraron más de un cultivo. Además, la utilización del SAI reduce las primas. Las primas obtenidas del método no paramétrico son relativamente más bajas en comparación con el enfoque paramétrico.Ghahremanzadeh, M.; Mohammadrezaei, R.; Dashti, G.; Ainollahi, M. (2018). Designing a whole-farm revenue insurance for agricultural crops in Zanjan province of Iran. Economía Agraria y Recursos Naturales - Agricultural and Resource Economics. 17(2):29-53. doi:10.7201/earn.2017.02.02SWORD295317

Impacto a nivel económico de las exportaciones de la industria de procesamiento de alimentos en Irán

[EN] This paper aims to analyze the economy-wide impact of an increase in the export of food processing industry in Iran and to compare it to the same increase in oil and gas exports as the main eco-nomic sector. It uses both demand-driven and supply-driven mixed Input-Output models referred to as 2011 SAM framework purposely designed by authors. The results show that an increase in the food pro-cessing industry promotes the production of other sectors and, increases factor employment and house-hold income. The significance of this impact is comparable to a similar shock in the oil and gas sector.[ES] Este documento tiene como objetivo analizar el impacto en la economía de un aumento en la exportación de la industria de procesamiento de alimentos en Irán y compararlo con el mismo aumento en las exportaciones de petróleo y gas que es el principal sector económico. Utiliza modelos mixtos input-output basados en la demanda y en la oferta, denominados marco SAM 2011 diseñados específicamente por los autores. Los resultados muestran que un aumento en la industria de procesamiento de alimentos promueve la producción de otros sectores y aumenta el empleo de factores y los ingresos de los hogares. La importancia de este impacto es comparable a un shock similar en el sector de petróleo y gas.Ghahremanzadeh, M.; Sassi, M.; Javadi, A.; Javanbakht, O.; Hayati, B. (2020). Economy-Wide Impact of Food Processing Industry Exports in Iran. Economía Agraria y Recursos Naturales - Agricultural and Resource Economics. 20(1):131-148. https://doi.org/10.7201/earn.2020.01.06OJS13114820

Analysis of Factors Affecting Canola Plantation Development in Tabriz and Marand Counties, Iran

This study identifies and analyzes factors influencing canola plantation development in Tabriz and Marand Counties. The Censored Model was used to analyze cross-sectional data collected from 372 farmers using a questionnaire. Due to the weakness of the Tobit model in separating factors affecting the adoption decision of farmers and factors affecting the rate of adoption, the Heckman Model was employed to separate the contributions made by these factors. The results of estimated Probit model in the first stage of the Heckman Approach showed that machinery ownership had an important effect on canola adoption, as a 1% increase in machinery ownership had led to 0.158% increase in canola adoption probability. Contact with extension agents, farm income proportion, education, and farmers’ experience influenced canola plantation probability positively, and the age and number of fragmentations had a negative impact on it. The significance of inverse Mill’s ratio indicates that the factors affecting the decision to start planting and the amount of canola plantation are not the same. The Heckman’s second step estimation results indicated that the loan amount, canola relative benefit, and family labor had a positive effect, and that machinery cost and farm distance from the road had a negative effect on canola acreage. Relative benefit was the most effective element, as 1% increase in relative benefit results in a 0.342% increase in canola plantation

Estimating the Value of Improvement in Lake Urmia’s Environmental Situation Using Choice Experiment

The Lake Urmia and its satellite wetlands have been selected as a demonstration site for the United Nations Development Program/Global Environment Facility/Department of Environment Conservation of Iranian Wetlands Project. This project aims to demonstrate reduction of the major threats of this wetland protected area coordinated through an integrated management plan. A choice experiment was developed to examine public preferences and elicit their willingness to pay on improvements in lake’s indicators toward good environmental status. A pilot choice experiment study was administered in Urmia municipality and the data were analyzed using a random parameter logit model. The results revealed that residents of this municipality might strongly prefer improvement in water quantity and were willing to pay significant amounts to promote current water level to the highest level. Furthermore, water quality, numbers of flamingos and Artemia stock were identified as the next important issues which warranted additional management attention

Marketing Margins in War-Water and Cold-Water Cultured Fish of Mazandaran Province

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Seasonal Forecasting of Agriculture Gross Domestic Production in Iran: Application of Periodic Autoregressive Model

Agriculture as one of the major economic sectors of Iran, has an important role in Gross Domestic Production by providing about 14% of GDP. This study attempts to forecast the value of the agriculture GDP using Periodic Autoregressive model (PAR), as the new seasonal time series techniques. To address this aim, the quarterly data were collected from March 1988 to July 1989. The collected data was firstly analyzed using periodic unit root test Franses & Paap (2004). The analysis found non-periodic unit root in the seasonal data. Second, periodic seasonal behavior (Boswijk & Franses, 1996) was examined. The results showed that periodic autoregressive model fits agriculture GDP well. This makes an accurate forecast of agriculture GDP possible. Using the estimated model, the future value of quarter agricultural GDP from March 2011 to July 2012was forecasted. With consideration to the fair fit of this model with agricultural GDP, It is recommended to use periodic autoregressive model for the future studies

Food Price Change and its Welfare Impact on Iranian Households

I ran has experienced high food prices in recent years. This paper examines the welfare impacts of rising major food groups' prices on Iranian urban households using Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) approach. The elasticity coefficients derived from QUAIDS are used to estimate Compensated Variations (CV).The study uses Iranian Household Expenditure and Income Survey (HEIS) raw data, encompassing both low and high price periods. Prices of all food and agricultural products increased during the entire survey period of 2004 to 2012. Based on our estimates, the food groups of cereals, dairy products, vegetable and pulses, Potables and Spices are necessary goods, as their budget elasticity is positive and below one at the same time. Meat, edible oils, fruits and dried fruits and Sugary products are luxury goods, with income elasticity above one. We find that the remarkable increases in food prices resulted in severe erosion of purchasing power for the Iranian urban households and they need to be compensated on average about 48% of their initial income for the food price changes they faced during the 2004 and 2012. In addition the high share of cereals in year 2012 implies that urban households shift their consumption to cheaper calorie source. This figure is confirmed with the decline in the share of meat, dairy Products, fruits and dried fruits, vegetables and pulses and potables expenditure

Food Price Change and its Welfare Impact on Iranian Households

Iran has experienced high food prices in recent years. This paper examines the welfare impacts of rising major food groups' prices on Iranian urban households using Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) approach. The elasticity coefficients derived from QUAIDS are used to estimate Compensated Variations (CV).The study uses Iranian Household Expenditure and Income Survey (HEIS) raw data, encompassing both low and high price periods. Prices of all food and agricultural products increased during the entire survey period of 2004 to 2012. Based on our estimates, the food groups of cereals, dairy products, vegetable and pulses, Potables and Spices are necessary goods, as their budget elasticity is positive and below one at the same time. Meat, edible oils, fruits and dried fruits and Sugary products are luxury goods, with income elasticity above one. We find that the remarkable increases in food prices resulted in severe erosion of purchasing power for the Iranian urban households and they need to be compensated on average about 48% of their initial income for the food price changes they faced during the 2004 and 2012. In addition the high share of cereals in year 2012 implies that urban households shift their consumption to cheaper calorie source. This figure is confirmed with the decline in the share of meat, dairy Products, fruits and dried fruits, vegetables and pulses and potables expenditure

An Application of the Two-Regime Threshold Vector Error Correction Model to Analyze Asymmetric Price Transmission of Milk in Zanjan Province of Iran

In this paper asymmetric price transmission mechanism and nonlinear adjustment between producer and retail prices of milk were examined in Zanjan Province of Iran. For this purpose, a Two-Regime Threshold Vector Error Correction Model (TVECM) and a Sup-LM Test developed by Hansen and Seo (2002) were employed for checking presence of a threshold effect. Application of unit root tests indicated that both wholesale and retail prices are I (1), and Johansen test verified cointegration of the series in the long-run. Results of the Sup-LM test confirmed threshold adjustment of product price towards the long-run equilibrium. Furthermore, results obtained from TVECM revealed that the coefficient of ECT is significant only in the first regime of retailing equation implying that retailers significantly respond to the decreasing deviations from the long-run equilibrium. While adjustment coefficient is not significant for wholesale equation in both regimes to imply that there is not significant inclination to react to deviations from the long-run equilibrium among the wholesalers despite the retailers

Measuring the Technical Efficiency of Canola Farmers and Determining the Effective Factors in Tabriz County, Iran

The purpose of this study was to measure the technical efficiency of canola farmers and determine the underpinning factors. Required data were collected using stratified random sampling method and questionnaire survey. In this context, 157 canola farmers from Tabriz County, Iran, were asked to fill out the questionnaire in 2012-2013 growing season. The technical efficiency was evaluated using stochastic frontier approach. The results of inputs production elasticity indicated that all inputs were consumed in economic area. In addition, the highest (0.504) and lowest (0.095) elasticity rate was related to water consumption and education level, respectively. The estimated technical efficiency demonstrated that the highest and lowest technical efficiencies were 25 and 95% with an average of 80%. It should be noted that the highest efficiency was observed in the farms with the area covering 3-4 hectares. Furthermore, the estimated inefficiency model indicated that education level, training course number, and cultivated area negatively affected the inefficiency. By contrast, age of farmer had a positive effect on inefficiency. As the results show, educating and training farmers for the optimum use of inputs as well as improving their knowledge as to promote agricultural products should be taken into account