From Bound Duties to Actual Protection: Industrial Liberalisation in the Doha Round. ENEPRI Working Paper No. 41, 2005

In the background of the Doha Round of trade negotiations, this study proposes a CGE assessment of multilateral liberalisation of market access for non-agricultural products. The scenarios considered include the so-called ‘Girard proposal’ (with alternative choices for the coefficient involved), the removal of tariff peaks and complete liberalisation. This study is the first to take into account the difference between bound and applied tariffs, while considering all the enforced preferential trade arrangements and computing tariff cuts at the detailed product level (HS-6 classification). Although the liberalisation of market access for non-agricultural products is found to be welfare-enhancing at the world level, cross-country distributive effects prove significant. A soft liberalisation would not significantly reduce applied duties in developing countries, owing to their considerable binding overhang. By contrast, a deep liberalisation would entail fierce price competition among those developing countries that are largely specialised in similar sectors and in the same product quality range

Does Multilateral Trade Liberalization Matters for Poverty Reduction in Africa

The link between trade liberalization and poverty reduction is more or less ambigious. For the case of African countries, this study tries to answer the following questions: Will multilateral trade liberalization under the Doha Development Agenda reduce poverty in Africa? To what extent will households be affected by changes in global trade liberalization? Results of simulations using the MIRAGE global dynamic computable general equilibrium linked to household measures suggest that trade liberalization has only modest effects in reducing poverty in most of the African countries covered by this study. However, the effect on poverty is not homogeneous across countries, as some of them will experience an increase in poverty rates rather than a decline. Moreover, the adoption of alternative fiscal policies to compensate for the loose in trade revenue for the government will amplifies the effects on poverty without changing its direction

Does Multilateral Trade Liberalization Matters for Poverty Reduction in Africa

The link between trade liberalization and poverty reduction is more or less ambigious. For the case of African countries, this study tries to answer the following questions: Will multilateral trade liberalization under the Doha Development Agenda reduce poverty in Africa? To what extent will households be affected by changes in global trade liberalization? Results of simulations using the MIRAGE global dynamic computable general equilibrium linked to household measures suggest that trade liberalization has only modest effects in reducing poverty in most of the African countries covered by this study. However, the effect on poverty is not homogeneous across countries, as some of them will experience an increase in poverty rates rather than a decline. Moreover, the adoption of alternative fiscal policies to compensate for the loose in trade revenue for the government will amplifies the effects on poverty without changing its direction

Energy subsidies Reform in Tunisia: A combined macroeconomic and microeconomic simulations

Energy subsidies are among the most pervasive and controversial fiscal policy tools in Tunisia. Their reform continues to be difficult, from a political, economic and social perspective, due to the original objectives of these measures—such as the need to protect the most vulnerable households, enhance economic growth and to foster domestic industrial growth. Due to the unsustainable budget implications, a new strategy has been initiated by the Tunisian government to reform the subsidy system in the energy sector while striking a balance between improving fiscal and equity considerations without increasing social tensions. The model shows that reducing energy subsidy generates a fiscal space for the Tunisian government. In the first bunch of simulations we supposed that this ‘saved’ amounts are totally directed to the reduction of fiscal deficit. This policy enhances the fiscal sustainability and reduces indebtment but have a negative impact on growth and job creation. The fiscal incidence by decile shows that the poorest groups benefit of energy subsidies more that the richest groups. This result shows the large reliance of subsidies as instrument for redistribution

Energy subsidies Reform in Tunisia: A combined macroeconomic and microeconomic simulations

Energy subsidies are among the most pervasive and controversial fiscal policy tools in Tunisia. Their reform continues to be difficult, from a political, economic and social perspective, due to the original objectives of these measures—such as the need to protect the most vulnerable households, enhance economic growth and to foster domestic industrial growth. Due to the unsustainable budget implications, a new strategy has been initiated by the Tunisian government to reform the subsidy system in the energy sector while striking a balance between improving fiscal and equity considerations without increasing social tensions. The model shows that reducing energy subsidy generates a fiscal space for the Tunisian government. In the first bunch of simulations we supposed that this ‘saved’ amounts are totally directed to the reduction of fiscal deficit. This policy enhances the fiscal sustainability and reduces indebtment but have a negative impact on growth and job creation. The fiscal incidence by decile shows that the poorest groups benefit of energy subsidies more that the richest groups. This result shows the large reliance of subsidies as instrument for redistribution