Credit scores, cardiovascular disease risk, and human capital.

Credit scores are the most widely used instruments to assess whether or not a person is a financial risk. Credit scoring has been so successful that it has expanded beyond lending and into our everyday lives, even to inform how insurers evaluate our health. The pervasive application of credit scoring has outpaced knowledge about why credit scores are such useful indicators of individual behavior. Here we test if the same factors that lead to poor credit scores also lead to poor health. Following the Dunedin (New Zealand) Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,037 study members, we examined the association between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and the underlying factors that account for this association. We find that credit scores are negatively correlated with cardiovascular disease risk. Variation in household income was not sufficient to account for this association. Rather, individual differences in human capital factors—educational attainment, cognitive ability, and self-control—predicted both credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and accounted for ∼45% of the correlation between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk. Tracing human capital factors back to their childhood antecedents revealed that the characteristic attitudes, behaviors, and competencies children develop in their first decade of life account for a significant portion (∼22%) of the link between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk at midlife. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy debates about data privacy, financial literacy, and early childhood interventions

Methylomic markers of persistent childhood asthma: a longitudinal study of asthma-discordant monozygotic twins.

This is a freely-available open access publication. Please cite the published version which is available via the DOI link in this record.Asthma is the most common chronic inflammatory disorder in children. The aetiology of asthma pathology is complex and highly heterogeneous, involving the interplay between genetic and environmental risk factors that is hypothesized to involve epigenetic processes. Our aim was to explore whether methylomic variation in early childhood is associated with discordance for asthma symptoms within monozygotic (MZ) twin pairs recruited from the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) longitudinal twin study. We also aimed to identify differences in DNA methylation that are associated with asthma that develops in childhood and persists into early adulthood as these may represent useful prognostic biomarkers. RESULTS: We examined genome-wide patterns of DNA methylation in buccal cell samples collected from 37 MZ twin pairs discordant for asthma at age 10. DNA methylation at individual CpG sites demonstrated significant variability within discordant MZ twin pairs with the top-ranked nominally significant differentially methylated position (DMP) located in the HGSNAT gene. We stratified our analysis by assessing DNA methylation differences in a sub-group of MZ twin pairs who remained persistently discordant for asthma at age 18. The top-ranked nominally significant DMP associated with persisting asthma is located in the vicinity of the HLX gene, which has been previously implicated in childhood asthma. CONCLUSIONS: We identified DNA methylation differences associated with childhood asthma in peripheral DNA samples from discordant MZ twin pairs. Our data suggest that differences in DNA methylation associated with childhood asthma which persists into early adulthood are distinct from those associated with asthma which remits.Medical Research Council (MRC)National Institute of Child Health and Development (NICHD)American Asthma FoundationMRC Centenary Awar

Association of subcortical gray-matter volumes with life-course-persistent antisocial behavior in a population-representative longitudinal birth cohort

Neuropsychological evidence supports the developmental taxonomy theory of antisocial behavior, suggesting that abnormal brain development distinguishes life-course-persistent from adolescence-limited antisocial behavior. Recent neuroimaging work confirmed that prospectively-measured life-course-persistent antisocial behavior is associated with differences in cortical brain structure. Whether this extends to subcortical brain structures remains uninvestigated. This study compared subcortical gray-matter volumes between 672 members of the Dunedin Study previously defined as exhibiting life-course-persistent, adolescence-limited or low-level antisocial behavior based on repeated assessments at ages 7-26 years. Gray-matter volumes of 10 subcortical structures were compared across groups. The life-course-persistent group had lower volumes of amygdala, brain stem, cerebellum, hippocampus, pallidum, thalamus, and ventral diencephalon compared to the low-antisocial group. Differences between life-course-persistent and adolescence-limited individuals were comparable in effect size to differences between life-course-persistent and low-antisocial individuals, but were not statistically significant due to less statistical power. Gray-matter volumes in adolescence-limited individuals were near the norm in this population-representative cohort and similar to volumes in low-antisocial individuals. Although this study could not establish causal links between brain volume and antisocial behavior, it constitutes new biological evidence that all people with antisocial behavior are not the same, supporting a need for greater developmental and diagnostic precision in clinical, forensic, and policy-based interventions

Measuring childhood maltreatment to predict early-adult psychopathology: Comparison of prospective informant-reports and retrospective self-reports

Both prospective informant-reports and retrospective self-reports may be used to measure childhood maltreatment, though both methods entail potential limitations such as underestimation and memory biases. The validity and utility of standard measures of childhood maltreatment requires clarification in order to inform the design of future studies investigating the mental health consequences of maltreatment. The present study assessed agreement between prospective informant-reports and retrospective self-reports of childhood maltreatment, as well as the comparative utility of both reports for predicting a range of psychiatric problems at age 18. Data were obtained from the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study, a nationally-representative birth cohort of 2232 children followed to 18 years of age (with 93% retention). Childhood maltreatment was assessed in two ways: (i) prospective informant-reports from caregivers, researchers, and clinicians when children were aged 5, 7, 10 and 12; and (ii) retrospective self-reports of maltreatment experiences occurring up to age 12, obtained at age 18 using the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire. Participants were privately interviewed at age 18 concerning several psychiatric problems including depression, anxiety, self-injury, alcohol/cannabis dependence, and conduct disorder. There was only slight to fair agreement between prospective and retrospective reports of childhood maltreatment (all Kappa's ≤ 0.31). Both prospective and retrospective reports of maltreatment were associated with age-18 psychiatric problems, though the strongest associations were found when maltreatment was retrospectively self-reported. These findings indicate that prospective and retrospective reports of childhood maltreatment capture largely non-overlapping groups of individuals. Young adults who recall being maltreated have a particularly elevated risk for psychopathology

Preschool Behavioral and Social-Cognitive Problems as Predictors of (Pre)adolescent Disruptive Behavior

This article describes preschool social understanding and difficult behaviors (hot temper, disobedience, bossiness and bullying) as predictors of oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) and aggressive conduct disorder (ACD) in a Dutch population sample of (pre)adolescents (N = 1943), measured at age 10–12 and at age 13–15. ODD and ACD were assessed by the Child Behavior Checklist and the Youth Self-Report, preschool behavior was evaluated by the parental questionnaire ‹How was your child as a preschooler? (age 4–5)’. Adjusted for each other, all difficult preschool behaviors except bullying were associated with adolescent ODD, while only bullying significantly predicted adolescent ACD. Furthermore, the results suggest a qualitative difference between ODD and ACD in terms of the social component of the disorders: poor preschool social understanding was associated with the development of ACD but not of ODD; and poor social understanding interacted with difficult preschool behaviors to predict later ACD but not ODD. The associations did not differ between boys and girls, and were roughly similar for preadolescent (age 10–12) and early adolescent (age 13–15) outcomes. The finding that poor social understanding was implicated in the development of ACD but not in the development of ODD may help to demarcate the individuality of each disorder and offer leads for (differential) treatment strategies

In the eye of the beholder: Perceptions of neighborhood adversity and psychotic experiences in adolescence

Adolescent psychotic experiences increase risk for schizophrenia and other severe psychopathology in adulthood. Converging evidence implicates urban and adverse neighborhood conditions in the etiology of adolescent psychotic experiences, but the role of young people's personal perceptions of disorder (i.e., physical and social signs of threat) in their neighborhood is unknown. This was examined using data from the Environmental Risk Longitudinal Twin Study, a nationally representative birth cohort of 2,232 British twins. Participants were interviewed at age 18 about psychotic phenomena and perceptions of disorder in the neighborhood. Multilevel, longitudinal, and genetically sensitive analyses investigated the association between perceptions of neighborhood disorder and adolescent psychotic experiences. Adolescents who perceived higher levels of neighborhood disorder were significantly more likely to have psychotic experiences, even after accounting for objectively/independently measured levels of crime and disorder, neighborhood- and family-level socioeconomic status, family psychiatric history, adolescent substance and mood problems, and childhood psychotic symptoms: odds ratio = 1.62, 95% confidence interval [1.27, 2.05], p < .001. The phenotypic overlap between adolescent psychotic experiences and perceptions of neighborhood disorder was explained by overlapping common environmental influences, rC = .88, 95% confidence interval [0.26, 1.00]. Findings suggest that early psychological interventions to prevent adolescent psychotic experiences should explore the role of young people's (potentially modifiable) perceptions of threatening neighborhood conditions

Predicting Transitions in Low and High Levels of Risk Behavior from Early to Middle Adolescence: The TRAILS Study

The present study examined the joint development of substance use and externalizing problems in early and middle adolescence. First, it was tested whether the relevant groups found in previous studies i.e., those with an early onset, a late onset, and no onset or low levels of risk behavior could be identified, while using a developmental model of a single, underlying construct of risk behavior. Second, departing from Moffitt’s taxonomy of antisocial behavior, it was tested if early, but not late, onset risk behavior is predicted by a problematic risk profile in childhood. Data were used from TRAILS, a population based cohort study, starting at age 11 with two follow-ups at mean ages of 13.6 and 16.3 years. Latent transition analyses demonstrated that, both in early and middle adolescence, a single underlying construct of risk behavior, consisting of two classes (labeled as low and high risk behavior), adequately represented the data. Respondents could be clearly classified into four possible transition patterns from early to middle adolescence, with a transition from high to low being almost non-existent (2.5 %), low to low (39.4 %) and low to high (41.8 %) being the most prevalent, and high to high (16.2 %) substantial. As hypothesized, only the high-high group was characterized by a clear adverse predictor profile in late childhood, while the low-high group was not. This study demonstrates that the development of substance use is correlated with externalizing problems and underscores the theory that etiologies of early and later onset risk behavior are different

Deviant Peer Affiliation and Antisocial Behavior: Interaction with Monoamine Oxidase A (MAOA) Genotype

Although genetic and environmental factors are separately implicated in the development of antisocial behavior (ASB), interactive models have emerged relatively recently, particularly those incorporating molecular genetic data. Using a large sample of male Caucasian adolescents and young adults from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health), the association of deviant peer affiliation, the 30-base pair variable number tandem repeat polymorphism in promoter region of the monoamine oxidase-A (MAOA) gene, and their interaction, with antisocial behavior (ASB) was investigated. Weighted analyses accounting for over-sampling and clustering within schools as well as controlling for age and wave suggested that deviant peer affiliation and MAOA genotype were each significantly associated with levels of overt ASB across a 6-year period. Only deviant peer affiliation was significantly related to covert ASB, however. Additionally, there was evidence suggestive of a gene-environment interaction (G × E) where the influence of deviant peer affiliation on overt ASB was significantly stronger among individuals with the high-activity MAOA genotype than the low-activity genotype. MAOA was not significantly associated with deviant peer affiliation, thus strengthening the inference of G × E rather than gene-environment correlation (rGE). Different forms of gene-environment interplay and implications for future research on ASB are discussed

Latent Class Analysis of Antisocial Behavior: Interaction of Serotonin Transporter Genotype and Maltreatment

To improve understanding about genetic and environmental influences on antisocial behavior (ASB), we tested the association of the 44-base pair polymorphism of the serotonin transporter gene (5-HTTLPR) and maltreatment using latent class analysis in 2,488 boys and girls from Wave 1 of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. In boys, ASB was defined by three classes (Exclusive Covert, Mixed Covert and Overt, and No Problems) whereas in girls, ASB was defined by two classes (Exclusive Covert, No Problems). In boys, 5-HTTLPR and maltreatment were not significantly related to ASB. However, in girls, maltreatment, but not 5-HTTLPR, was significantly associated with ASB. A significant interaction between 5-HTTLPR and maltreatment was also observed, where maltreated girls homozygous for the short allele were 12 times more likely to be classified in the Exclusive Covert group than in the No Problems group. Structural differences in the latent structure of ASB at Wave 2 and Wave 3 prevented repeat LCA modeling. However, using counts of ASB, 5-HTTLPR, maltreatment, and its interaction were unrelated to overt and covert ASB at Wave 2 and only maltreatment was related to covert ASB at Wave 3. We discuss these findings within the context of sex differences in ASB and relevant models of gene-environment interplay across developmental periods