Prediction of claim cost in general insurance

Mestrado em Actuarial ScienceO trabalho seguinte foi realizado durante uma colocação de estágio na If Industrial P & C Insurance, em Estocolmo, na Suécia. Este relatório destaca e discute algumas das diferenças entre o seguro industrial e privado e percorre o processo de “Análise do Ano Normal”. A análise avalia os dados das reivindicações com o objetivo de projetar as perdas em um ano no futuro. A Teoria do Risco Colectivo e a Estimação da Máxima Verossimilhança são utilizadas para obter uma estimativa da gravidade das reivindicações. Além disso, as reservas são estimadas usando o método Chain-ladder. A seção final do relatório descreve uma análise de sensibilidade de um modelo para as reservas de ajuste de sinistros. Esta análise mostra o impacto da introdução de dois novos parâmetros, o que explica a parte já desenvolvida das reivindicações abertas.The following work was carried out during an internship placement at If Industrial P&C Insurance in Stockholm, Sweden. This report highlights and discusses some of the differences between Industrial and Private insurance and walks through the “Normal Year Analysis”-procedure. The analysis assesses the claims data with the goal of projecting the losses one year into the future. Collective Risk Theory and Maximum Likelihood Estimation is used to obtain an estimate of the severity of the claims. In addition, the reserves are estimated, using the Chain-ladder method. The final section of the report describes a sensitivity analysis of a model for the Claims Adjustment Reserves. This analysis shows the impact of introducing two new parameters, which accounts for the already developed part of the open claims.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Superparamagnetic nanoparticle ensembles

Magnetic single-domain nanoparticles constitute an important model system in magnetism. In particular ensembles of superparamagnetic nanoparticles can exhibit a rich variety of different behaviors depending on the inter-particle interactions. Starting from isolated single-domain ferro- or ferrimagnetic nanoparticles the magnetization behavior of both non-interacting and interacting particle-ensembles is reviewed. A particular focus is drawn onto the relaxation time of the system. In case of interacting nanoparticles the usual Neel-Brown relaxation law becomes modified. With increasing interactions modified superparamagnetism, spin glass behavior and superferromagnetism is encountered.Comment: Corrected formula: Eq. (1

Cost performance and risk in the construction of offshore and onshore wind farms

This article investigates the risk of cost overruns and underruns occurring in the construction of 51 onshore and offshore wind farms commissioned between 2000 and 2015 in 13 countries. In total, these projects required about $39 billion in investment and reached about 11 GW of installed capacity. We use this original dataset to test six hypotheses about construction cost overruns related to (i) technological learning, (ii) fiscal control, (iii) economies of scale, (iv) configuration, (v) regulation and markets and (vi) manufacturing experience. We find that across the entire dataset, the mean cost escalation per project is 6.5$63 million per windfarm, although 20 projects within the sample (39%) did not exhibit cost overruns. The majority of onshore wind farms exhibit cost underruns while for offshore wind farms the results have a larger spread. Interestingly, no significant relationship exists between the size (in total MWor per individual turbine capacity) of a windfarm and the severity of a cost overrun. Nonetheless, there is an indication that the risk increases for larger wind farms at greater distances offshore using new types of turbines and foundations. Overall, the mean cost escalation for onshore projects is 1.7% and 9.6% for offshore projects, amounts much lower than those for other energy infrastructure

In situ Moessbauer spectroscopy of carbon-supported iron catalysts at cryogenic temperatures and in external magnetic fields

A highly dispersed C-supported Fe catalyst was studied with in situ Moessbauer spectroscopy at temps. down to 5 K and with external magnetic fields. Measurements of spectra in the presence of large magnetic fields considerably improves the information obtained from Moessbauer spectra. [on SciFinder (R)

In situ Moessbauer spectroscopy of carbon-supported iron catalysts at cryogenic temperatures and in external magnetic fields

A highly dispersed C-supported Fe catalyst was studied with in situ Moessbauer spectroscopy at temps. down to 5 K and with external magnetic fields. Measurements of spectra in the presence of large magnetic fields considerably improves the information obtained from Moessbauer spectra. [on SciFinder (R)

A method, computer program and system for inferring and structuring relations between cultural specific concepts in two cultures

The present invention relates to a method, computer program and system for inferring relations between cultural specific concepts (CSC) in two cultures at least comprising the steps of - extracting and listing said cultural specific concepts (CSCs) and features of said CSCs from at least a first corpora belonging to a first culture and a second corpora belonging to a second culture, - applying a algorithm to infer relations between said CSCs in the first and the second corpora.</p