Assessing the Risk of Observing Multiple Generations of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) Cases Given an Imported Case

To guide risk assessment, expected numbers of cases and generations were estimated, assuming a case importation of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Our analysis of 36 importation events yielded the risk of observing secondary transmission events at 22.7% (95% confidence interval: 19.3–25.1). The risks of observing generations 2, 3 and 4 were estimated at 10.5%, 6.1% and 3.9%, respectively. Countries at risk should be ready for highly variable outcomes following an importation of MERS

Tulpa: el manga como poema visual

El manga, estilo de cómic japonés cuyos orígenes hay que buscarlos en el propio arte japonés, es a día de hoy un solicitado producto en el mercado japonés, pero que además se ha exportado y es reconocido internacionalmente. La visión contemporánea del manga como elemento lúdico cotidiano ha venido desarrollándose desde finales del siglo XIX, y muy especialmente con el crecimiento económico experimentado durante la época de posguerra. No obstante, la imagen que se ha exportado (o se ha adquirido) fuera del país nipón es la del manga dirigido a un público infantil. La realidad es sin embargo muy distinta, ya que existen multitud de categorías y formatos, orientados a públicos completamente diferentes y en muy variados segmentos: edad, sexo, aficiones. Y además, el uso de formatos digitales ha contribuido a que géneros originalmente no tan populares, abran su hueco en el gran mercado que es el manga en Japón. El manga en esencia cuenta una historia, prestando atención a la parte narrativa y muy especialmente a la visual. La combinación de ambas hace que el manga posea una gran capacidad comunicativa. La versatilidad que ofrece este estilo permite la adaptación del mismo a diferentes ámbitos. El objetivo de este trabajo es el de descubrir las posibilidades del manga como elemento conductor de un poema, en lo que se ha denominado poema visual. Para ello se analizan las características propias del manga, su historia, construcción y rasgos distintivos, poniendo de manifiesto sus posibilidades a la hora de crear un poema visual.Miyamatsu, T. (2014). Tulpa: el manga como poema visual. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/47306.Archivo delegad

Estimating the Risk of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) Death During the Course of the Outbreak in the Republic of Korea

Objectives: A large cluster of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) linked to healthcare setting occurred from May to July 2015 in the Republic of Korea. The present study aimed to estimate the case fatality ratio (CFR) by appropriately taking into account the time delay from illness onset to death. We then compare our estimate against previously published values of the CFR for MERS, i.e., 20% and 40%. Methods: Dates of illness onset and death of the MERS outbreak in the Republic of Korea were extracted from secondary data sources. Using the known distribution of time from illness onset to death and an integral equation model, we estimated the delay-adjusted risk of MERS death for the South Korean cluster. Results: Our most up-to-date estimate of CFR for the MERS outbreak in South Korea was estimated at 20.0% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 14.6, 26.2). During the course of the outbreak, estimate of the CFR in real time appeared to have decreased and become significantly lower than 40%. Conclusions: The risk of MERS death in Korea was consistent with published CFR. The estimate decreased with time perhaps due to time-dependent increase in case ascertainment. Crude ratio of cumulative deaths t

Real-time Characterization of Risks of Death Associated With the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in the Republic of Korea, 2015

Background: An outbreak of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), comprising 185 cases linked to healthcare facilities, occurred in the Republic of Korea from May to July 2015. Owing to the nosocomial nature of the outbreak, it is particularly important to gain a better understanding of the epidemiological determinants characterizing the risk of MERS death in order to predict the heterogeneous risk of death in medical settings. Methods: We have devised a novel statistical model that identifies the risk of MERS death during the outbreak in real time. While accounting for the time delay from illness onset to death, risk factors for death were identified using a linear predictor tied to a logit model. We employ this approach to (1) quantify the risks of death and (2) characterize the temporal evolution of the case fatality ratio (CFR) as case ascertainment greatly improved during the course of the outbreak. Results: Senior persons aged 60 years or over were found to be 9.3 times (95 % confidence interval (CI), 5.3–16.9) more likely to die compared to younger MERS cases. Patients under treatment were at a 7.8-fold (95 % CI, 4.0–16.7) significantly higher risk of death compared to other MERS cases. The CFR among patients aged 60 years or older under treatment was estimated at 48.2 % (95 % CI, 35.2–61.3) as of July 31, 2015, while the CFR among other cases was estimated to lie below 15 %. From June 6, 2015, onwards, the CFR declined 0.3-fold (95 % CI, 0.1–1.1) compared to the earlier epidemic period, which may perhaps reflect enhanced case ascertainment following major contact tracing efforts. Conclusions: The risk of MERS death was significantly associated with older age as well as treatment for underlying diseases after explicitly adjusting for the delay between illness onset and death. Because MERS outbreaks are greatly amplified in the healthcare setting, enhanced infection control practices in medical facilities should strive to shield risk groups from MERS exposure

Legisdoctor. Survivance du droit romain au nord de la Loire, du VIIIe au XIIe siècle

This is a study on the nickname legisdoctor or legisdoctus. 1. This nickname is found among the high dignitaries in the north and south of the river Loire, from the 9th to the 12th century. 2. After the assimilation of the word lex contained in the nickname to Roman law, we define its bearer as a specialist of this law. 3. According to the opinion treating scabinus and legisdoctor in the echevinage we assume that the two not only attended the county court, but also rendered judgments. 4. While with the development of feudalism scabinus, expert in Frankish laws continues to increase its importance, the future of legisdoctor was severely hampered by the decline of Roman people. But the principle of personality of the laws allowed to the latter their survival which was also strengthened by the Church living under Roman law. And with the inheritance of the nickname the legisdoctor responded to the social demand. Here appears a legally heterogeneous society in medieval France

“Man-Eaters” in Medieval France and Italy

これまでの研究からは十分には見えてこなかった庶民・農民の生活史を，人名から多面的かつ詳細に捉える方法を提示する。本稿では，主として「食べる」を含む人名を通して，領主と従属民の関係に新たな光を当てる