Data-driven vs knowledge-driven inference of health outcomes in the ageing population: A case study

Preventive, Predictive, Personalised and Participative (P4) medicine has the potential to not only vastly improve people's quality of life, but also to significantly reduce healthcare costs and improve its efficiency. Our research focuses on age-related diseases and explores the opportunities offered by a data-driven approach to predict wellness states of ageing individuals, in contrast to the commonly adopted knowledge-driven approach that relies on easy-to-interpret metrics manually introduced by clinical experts. This is done by means of machine learning models applied on the My Smart Age with HIV (MySAwH) dataset, which is collected through a relatively new approach especially for older HIV patient cohorts. This includes Patient Related Outcomes values from mobile smartphone apps and activity traces from commercial-grade activity loggers. Our results show better predictive performance for the data-driven approach. We also show that a post hoc interpretation method applied to the predictive models can provide intelligible explanations that enable new forms of personalised and preventive medicine

A customisable pipeline for continuously harvesting socially-minded Twitter users

On social media platforms and Twitter in particular, specific classes of users such as influencers have been given satisfactory operational definitions in terms of network and content metrics. Others, for instance online activists, are not less important but their characterisation still requires experimenting. We make the hypothesis that such interesting users can be found within temporally and spatially localised contexts, i.e., small but topical fragments of the network containing interactions about social events or campaigns with a significant footprint on Twitter. To explore this hypothesis, we have designed a continuous user profile discovery pipeline that produces an ever-growing dataset of user profiles by harvesting and analysing contexts from the Twitter stream. The profiles dataset includes key network and content-based users metrics, enabling experimentation with user-defined score functions that characterise specific classes of online users. The paper describes the design and implementation of the pipeline and its empirical evaluation on a case study consisting of healthcare-related campaigns in the UK, showing how it supports the operational definitions of online activism, by comparing three experimental ranking functions. The code is publicly available.Comment: Procs. ICWE 2019, June 2019, Kore

Machine learning in predicting respiratory failure in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia - challenges, strengths, and opportunities in a global health emergency.

Aims- The aim of this study was to estimate a 48 hour prediction of moderate to severe respiratory failure, requiring mechanical ventilation, in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Methods- This was an observational study that comprised consecutive patients with COVID-19 pneumonia admitted to hospital from 21 February to 6 April 2020. The patients\u2019 medical history, demographic, epidemiologic and clinical data were collected in an electronic patient chart. The dataset was used to train predictive models using an established machine learning framework leveraging a hybrid approach where clinical expertise is applied alongside a data-driven analysis. The study outcome was the onset of moderate to severe respiratory failure defined as PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio <150 mmHg in at least one of two consecutive arterial blood gas analyses in the following 48 hours. Shapley Additive exPlanations values were used to quantify the positive or negative impact of each variable included in each model on the predicted outcome. Results- A total of 198 patients contributed to generate 1068 usable observations which allowed to build 3 predictive models based respectively on 31-variables signs and symptoms, 39-variables laboratory biomarkers and 91-variables as a composition of the two. A fourth \u201cboosted mixed model\u201d included 20 variables was selected from the model 3, achieved the best predictive performance (AUC=0.84) without worsening the FN rate. Its clinical performance was applied in a narrative case report as an example. Conclusion- This study developed a machine model with 84% prediction accuracy, which is able to assist clinicians in decision making process and contribute to develop new analytics to improve care at high technology readiness levels

Machine learning approaches to enhance diagnosis and staging of patients with MASLD using routinely available clinical information

Aims: Metabolic dysfunction Associated Steatotic Liver Disease (MASLD) outcomes such as MASH (metabolic dysfunction associated steatohepatitis), fibrosis and cirrhosis are ordinarily determined by resource-intensive and invasive biopsies. We aim to show that routine clinical tests offer sufficient information to predict these endpoints. Methods: Using the LITMUS Metacohort derived from the European NAFLD Registry, the largest MASLD dataset in Europe, we create three combinations of features which vary in degree of procurement including a 19-variable feature set that are attained through a routine clinical appointment or blood test. This data was used to train predictive models using supervised machine learning (ML) algorithm XGBoost, alongside missing imputation technique MICE and class balancing algorithm SMOTE. Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) were added to determine relative importance for each clinical variable. Results: Analysing nine biopsy-derived MASLD outcomes of cohort size ranging between 5385 and 6673 subjects, we were able to predict individuals at training set AUCs ranging from 0.719-0.994, including classifying individuals who are At-Risk MASH at an AUC = 0.899. Using two further feature combinations of 26-variables and 35-variables, which included composite scores known to be good indicators for MASLD endpoints and advanced specialist tests, we found predictive performance did not sufficiently improve. We are also able to present local and global explanations for each ML model, offering clinicians interpretability without the expense of worsening predictive performance. Conclusions: This study developed a series of ML models of accuracy ranging from 71.9—99.4% using only easily extractable and readily available information in predicting MASLD outcomes which are usually determined through highly invasive means

Machine learning approaches to enhance diagnosis and staging of patients with MASLD using routinely available clinical information

\ua9 2024 McTeer et al.Aims Metabolic dysfunction Associated Steatotic Liver Disease (MASLD) outcomes such as MASH (metabolic dysfunction associated steatohepatitis), fibrosis and cirrhosis are ordinarily determined by resource-intensive and invasive biopsies. We aim to show that routine clinical tests offer sufficient information to predict these endpoints. Methods Using the LITMUS Metacohort derived from the European NAFLD Registry, the largest MASLD dataset in Europe, we create three combinations of features which vary in degree of procurement including a 19-variable feature set that are attained through a routine clinical appointment or blood test. This data was used to train predictive models using supervised machine learning (ML) algorithm XGBoost, alongside missing imputation technique MICE and class balancing algorithm SMOTE. Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) were added to determine relative importance for each clinical variable. Results Analysing nine biopsy-derived MASLD outcomes of cohort size ranging between 5385 and 6673 subjects, we were able to predict individuals at training set AUCs ranging from 0.719-0.994, including classifying individuals who are At-Risk MASH at an AUC = 0.899. Using two further feature combinations of 26-variables and 35-variables, which included composite scores known to be good indicators for MASLD endpoints and advanced specialist tests, we found predictive performance did not sufficiently improve. We are also able to present local and global explanations for each ML model, offering clinicians interpretability without the expense of worsening predictive performance. Conclusions This study developed a series of ML models of accuracy ranging from 71.9—99.4% using only easily extractable and readily available information in predicting MASLD outcomes which are usually determined through highly invasive means

Benford's law predicted digit distribution of aggregated income taxes: the surprising conformity of Italian cities and regions

The yearly aggregated tax income data of all, more than 8000, Italian municipalities are analyzed for a period of five years, from 2007 to 2011, to search for conformity or not with Benford's law, a counter-intuitive phenomenon observed in large tabulated data where the occurrence of numbers having smaller initial digits is more favored than those with larger digits. This is done in anticipation that large deviations from Benford's law will be found in view of tax evasion supposedly being widespread across Italy. Contrary to expectations, we show that the overall tax income data for all these years is in excellent agreement with Benford's law. Furthermore, we also analyze the data of Calabria, Campania and Sicily, the three Italian regions known for strong presence of mafia, to see if there are any marked deviations from Benford's law. Again, we find that all yearly data sets for Calabria and Sicily agree with Benford's law whereas only the 2007 and 2008 yearly data show departures from the law for Campania. These results are again surprising in view of underground and illegal nature of economic activities of mafia which significantly contribute to tax evasion. Some hypothesis for the found conformity is presented.Comment: 18 pages, 5 tables, 4 figures, 61 references, To appear in European Physical Journal

Structuring and extracting knowledge for the support of hypothesis generation in molecular biology

Background: Hypothesis generation in molecular and cellular biology is an empirical process in which knowledge derived from prior experiments is distilled into a comprehensible model. The requirement of automated support is exemplified by the difficulty of considering all relevant facts that are contained in the millions of documents available from PubMed. Semantic Web provides tools for sharing prior knowledge, while information retrieval and information extraction techniques enable its extraction from literature. Their combination makes prior knowledge available for computational analysis and inference. While some tools provide complete solutions that limit the control over the modeling and extraction processes, we seek a methodology that supports control by the experimenter over these critical processes. Results: We describe progress towards automated support for the generation of biomolecular hypotheses. Semantic Web technologies are used to structure and store knowledge, while a workflow extracts knowledge from text. We designed minimal proto-ontologies in OWL for capturing different aspects of a text mining experiment: the biological hypothesis, text and documents, text mining, and workflow provenance. The models fit a methodology that allows focus on the requirements of a single experiment while supporting reuse and posterior analysis of extracted knowledge from multiple experiments. Our workflow is composed of services from the 'Adaptive Information Disclosure Application' (AIDA) toolkit as well as a few others. The output is a semantic model with putative biological relations, with each relation linked to the corresponding evidence. Conclusion: We demonstrated a 'do-it-yourself' approach for structuring and extracting knowledge in the context of experimental research on biomolecular mechanisms. The methodology can be used to bootstrap the construction of semantically rich biological models using the results of knowledge extraction processes. Models specific to particular experiments can be constructed that, in turn, link with other semantic models, creating a web of knowledge that spans experiments. Mapping mechanisms can link to other knowledge resources such as OBO ontologies or SKOS vocabularies. AIDA Web Services can be used to design personalized knowledge extraction procedures. In our example experiment, we found three proteins (NF-Kappa B, p21, and Bax) potentially playing a role in the interplay between nutrients and epigenetic gene regulation

Preface of the 31st Italian Symposium on Advanced Database Systems

This volume contains the proceedings of the 31st Italian Symposium on Advanced Database Systems (SEBD - Sistemi Evoluti per Basi di Dati), held in Galzinagno Terme (Padua, Italy) from 2 to 5 July 2023.</p