Early warning of systemic risk in global banking: eigen-pair R number for financial contagion and market price-based methods

We analyse systemic risk in the core global banking system using a new network-based spectral eigen-pair method, which treats network failure as a dynamical system stability problem. This is compared with market price-based Systemic Risk Indexes, viz. Marginal Expected Shortfall, Delta Conditional Value-at-Risk, and Conditional Capital Shortfall Measure of Systemic Risk in a cross-border setting. Unlike paradoxical market price based risk measures, which underestimate risk during periods of asset price booms, the eigen-pair method based on bilateral balance sheet data gives early-warning of instability in terms of the tipping point that is analogous to the R number in epidemic models. For this regulatory capital thresholds are used. Furthermore, network centrality measures identify systemically important and vulnerable banking systems. Market price-based SRIs are contemporaneous with the crisis and they are found to covary with risk measures like VaR and betas

Characterization of plum pox virus infecting plum trees in north Transylvania and north Moldova of Romania

International audienc

A Lane Control Mechanism with Fault Tolerant Control Capabilities

International audienceThe paper discusses the problem of lane departure avoidance for a vehicle. A corrective mechanism imposes its control action whenever the vehicle is no longer inside a nominal region centered along the middle of the lane. Set theoretic methods are used in order to design this control action and to guarantee global stability. Additionally, for the same lane departure avoidance system, a fault tolerant control mechanism is proposed in order to discard faulty sensors in a redundant measurement setting, thus guaranteeing stability even in the presence of faults