Inference and Prediction for High Dimensional Data via Penalized Regression and Kernel Machine Methods

Analysis of high dimensional data often seeks to identify a subset of important features and assess their effects on the outcome. Furthermore, the ultimate goal is often to build a prediction model with these features that accurately assesses risk for future subjects. Such statistical challenges arise in the study of genetic associations with health outcomes. However, accurate inference and prediction with genetic information remains challenging, in part due to the complexity in the genetic architecture of human health and disease. A valuable approach for improving prediction models with a large number of potential predictors is to build a parsimonious model that includes only important variables. Regularized regression methods are useful, though often pose challenges for inference due to nonstandard limiting distributions or finite sample distributions that are difficult to approximate. In Chapter 1 we propose and theoretically justify a perturbation-resampling method to derive confidence regions and covariance estimates for marker effects estimated from regularized procedures with a general class of objective functions and concave penalties. Our methods outperform their asymptotic-based counterparts, even when effects are estimated as zero. In Chapters 2 and 3 we focus on genetic risk prediction. The difficulty in accurate risk assessment with genetic studies can in part be attributed to several potential obstacles: sparsity in marker effects, a large number of weak signals, and non-linear effects. Single marker analyses often lack power to select informative markers and typically do not account for non-linearity. One approach to gain predictive power and efficiency is to group markers based on biological knowledge such genetic pathways or gene structure. In Chapter 2 we propose and theoretically justify a multi-stage method for risk assessment that imposes a naive bayes kernel machine (KM) model to estimate gene-set specific risk models, and then aggregates information across all gene-sets by adaptively estimating gene-set weights via a regularization procedure. In Chapter 3 we extend these methods to meta-analyses by introducing sampling-based weights in the KM model. This permits building risk prediction models with multiple studies that have heterogeneous sampling scheme

A Perturbation Method for Inference on Regularized Regression Estimates

Analysis of high dimensional data often seeks to identify a subset of important features and assess their effects on the outcome. Traditional statistical inference procedures based on standard regression methods often fail in the presence of high-dimensional features. In recent years, regularization methods have emerged as promising tools for analyzing high dimensional data. These methods simultaneously select important features and provide stable estimation of their effects. Adaptive LASSO and SCAD for instance, give consistent and asymptotically normal estimates with oracle properties. However, in finite samples, it remains difficult to obtain interval estimators for the regression parameters. In this paper, we propose perturbation resampling based procedures to approximate the distribution of a general class of penalized parameter estimates. Our proposal, justified by asymptotic theory, provides a simple way to estimate the covariance matrix and confidence regions. Through finite sample simulations, we verify the ability of this method to give accurate inference and compare it to other widely used standard deviation and confidence interval estimates. We also illustrate our proposals with a data set used to study the association of HIV drug resistance and a large number of genetic mutations

Genetic validation of bipolar disorder identified by automated phenotyping using electronic health records

Bipolar disorder (BD) is a heritable mood disorder characterized by episodes of mania and depression. Although genomewide association studies (GWAS) have successfully identified genetic loci contributing to BD risk, sample size has become a rate-limiting obstacle to genetic discovery. Electronic health records (EHRs) represent a vast but relatively untapped resource for high-throughput phenotyping. As part of the International Cohort Collection for Bipolar Disorder (ICCBD), we previously validated automated EHR-based phenotyping algorithms for BD against in-person diagnostic interviews (Castro et al. Am J Psychiatry 172:363–372, 2015). Here, we establish the genetic validity of these phenotypes by determining their genetic correlation with traditionally ascertained samples. Case and control algorithms were derived from structured and narrative text in the Partners Healthcare system comprising more than 4.6 million patients over 20 years. Genomewide genotype data for 3330 BD cases and 3952 controls of European ancestry were used to estimate SNP-based heritability (h2g) and genetic correlation (rg) between EHR-based phenotype definitions and traditionally ascertained BD cases in GWAS by the ICCBD and Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (PGC) using LD score regression. We evaluated BD cases identified using 4 EHR-based algorithms: an NLP-based algorithm (95-NLP) and three rule-based algorithms using codified EHR with decreasing levels of stringency—“coded-strict”, “coded-broad”, and “coded-broad based on a single clinical encounter” (coded-broad-SV). The analytic sample comprised 862 95-NLP, 1968 coded-strict, 2581 coded-broad, 408 coded-broad-SV BD cases, and 3 952 controls. The estimated h2g were 0.24 (p = 0.015), 0.09 (p = 0.064), 0.13 (p = 0.003), 0.00 (p = 0.591) for 95-NLP, coded-strict, coded-broad and coded-broad-SV BD, respectively. The h2g for all EHR-based cases combined except coded-broad-SV (excluded due to 0 h2g) was 0.12 (p = 0.004). These h2g were lower or similar to the h2g observed by the ICCBD + PGCBD (0.23, p = 3.17E−80, total N = 33,181). However, the rg between ICCBD + PGCBD and the EHR-based cases were high for 95-NLP (0.66, p = 3.69 × 10–5), coded-strict (1.00, p = 2.40 × 10−4), and coded-broad (0.74, p = 8.11 × 10–7). The rg between EHR-based BD definitions ranged from 0.90 to 0.98. These results provide the first genetic validation of automated EHR-based phenotyping for BD and suggest that this approach identifies cases that are highly genetically correlated with those ascertained through conventional methods. High throughput phenotyping using the large data resources available in EHRs represents a viable method for accelerating psychiatric genetic research

SteatoSITE: an Integrated Gene-to-Outcome Data Commons for Precision Medicine Research in NAFLD

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the commonest cause of chronic liver disease worldwide and a growing healthcare burden. The pathobiology of NAFLD is complex, disease progression is variable and unpredictable, and there are no qualified prognostic biomarkers or licensed pharmacotherapies that can improve clinical outcomes; it represents an unmet precision medicine challenge. We established a retrospective multicentre national cohort of 940 patients, across the complete NAFLD spectrum, integrating quantitative digital pathology, hepatic RNA-sequencing and 5.67 million days of longitudinal electronic health record follow-up into a secure, searchable, open resource (SteatoSITE) to inform rational biomarker and drug development and facilitate personalised medicine approaches for NAFLD. A complementary web-based gene browser was also developed. Here, our initial analysis uncovers disease stage-specific gene expression signatures, pathogenic hepatic cell subpopulations and master regulator networks associated with disease progression in NAFLD. Additionally, we construct novel transcriptional risk prediction tools for the development of future hepatic decompensation events

An integrated gene-to-outcome multimodal database for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is the commonest cause of chronic liver disease worldwide and represents an unmet precision medicine challenge. We established a retrospective national cohort of 940 histologically defined patients (55.4% men, 44.6% women; median body mass index 31.3; 32% with type 2 diabetes) covering the complete MASLD severity spectrum, and created a secure, searchable, open resource (SteatoSITE). In 668 cases and 39 controls, we generated hepatic bulk RNA sequencing data and performed differential gene expression and pathway analysis, including exploration of gender-specific differences. A web-based gene browser was also developed. We integrated histopathological assessments, transcriptomic data and 5.67 million days of time-stamped longitudinal electronic health record data to define disease-stage-specific gene expression signatures, pathogenic hepatic cell subpopulations and master regulator networks associated with adverse outcomes in MASLD. We constructed a 15-gene transcriptional risk score to predict future hepatic decompensation events (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.86, 0.81 and 0.83 for 1-, 3- and 5-year risk, respectively). Additionally, thyroid hormone receptor beta regulon activity was identified as a critical suppressor of disease progression. SteatoSITE supports rational biomarker and drug development and facilitates precision medicine approaches for patients with MASLD

Effect of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker initiation on organ support-free days in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

IMPORTANCE Overactivation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) may contribute to poor clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Objective To determine whether angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) initiation improves outcomes in patients hospitalized for COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In an ongoing, adaptive platform randomized clinical trial, 721 critically ill and 58 non–critically ill hospitalized adults were randomized to receive an RAS inhibitor or control between March 16, 2021, and February 25, 2022, at 69 sites in 7 countries (final follow-up on June 1, 2022). INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomized to receive open-label initiation of an ACE inhibitor (n = 257), ARB (n = 248), ARB in combination with DMX-200 (a chemokine receptor-2 inhibitor; n = 10), or no RAS inhibitor (control; n = 264) for up to 10 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was organ support–free days, a composite of hospital survival and days alive without cardiovascular or respiratory organ support through 21 days. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model. Odds ratios (ORs) greater than 1 represent improved outcomes. RESULTS On February 25, 2022, enrollment was discontinued due to safety concerns. Among 679 critically ill patients with available primary outcome data, the median age was 56 years and 239 participants (35.2%) were women. Median (IQR) organ support–free days among critically ill patients was 10 (–1 to 16) in the ACE inhibitor group (n = 231), 8 (–1 to 17) in the ARB group (n = 217), and 12 (0 to 17) in the control group (n = 231) (median adjusted odds ratios of 0.77 [95% bayesian credible interval, 0.58-1.06] for improvement for ACE inhibitor and 0.76 [95% credible interval, 0.56-1.05] for ARB compared with control). The posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitors and ARBs worsened organ support–free days compared with control were 94.9% and 95.4%, respectively. Hospital survival occurred in 166 of 231 critically ill participants (71.9%) in the ACE inhibitor group, 152 of 217 (70.0%) in the ARB group, and 182 of 231 (78.8%) in the control group (posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitor and ARB worsened hospital survival compared with control were 95.3% and 98.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this trial, among critically ill adults with COVID-19, initiation of an ACE inhibitor or ARB did not improve, and likely worsened, clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0273570

Risk Classification with an Adaptive Naïve Bayes Kernel Machine Model

Non UBCUnreviewedAuthor affiliation: Oregon Health and Science UniversityFacult

Risk Classification With an Adaptive Naive Bayes Kernel Machine Model

Genetic studies of complex traits have uncovered only a small number of risk markers explaining a small fraction of heritability and adding little improvement to disease risk prediction. Standard single marker methods may lack power in selecting informative markers or estimating effects. Most existing methods also typically do not account for nonlinearity. Identifying markers with weak signals and estimating their joint effects among many noninformative markers remains challenging. One potential approach is to group markers based on biological knowledge such as gene structure. If markers in a group tend to have similar effects, proper usage of the group structure could improve power and efficiency in estimation. We propose a two-stage method relating markers to disease risk by taking advantage of known gene-set structures. Imposing a naive Bayes kernel machine (KM) model, we estimate gene-set specific risk models that relate each gene-set to the outcome in stage I. The KM framework efficiently models potentially nonlinear effects of predictors without requiring explicit specification of functional forms. In stage II, we aggregate information across gene-sets via a regularization procedure. Estimation and computational efficiency is further improved with kernel principal component analysis. Asymptotic results for model estimation and gene-set selection are derived and numerical studies suggest that the proposed procedure could outperform existing procedures for constructing genetic risk models

Data Scavenger Hunt: Data Exploration of NHANES

Are you interested in Data Science but don’t know how to get started? Come learn about the power of exploring data at our workshop. We’ll use a publicly available dataset called NHANES (National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey) to learn about answering questions about diabetes and depression in a friendly group setting. No previous experience is required. Bring a laptop and your curiosity