Mathematical techniques for estimating operational readiness of complex systems

Development of methods for predicting operational readiness of complex systems based on probability theory is discussed. Operational readiness of systems is defined and mathematical relationships involved in determining readiness are presented. Example of reliability engineering and quality control is included

Wolf use of areas planned for wind power development in Scandinavia

The global energy demand is increasing, and the world is shifting towards using more renewable energy. As a result, onshore wind power development is increasing, though little is known about effects of wind power development on terrestrial mammals. This results in information about effects of wind power development on wildlife often not being included in environmental impact assessments (EIA), when planning new wind power plants. In Norway and Sweden, the wolf (Canis lupus) distribution is partly overlapping with sites chosen for wind power development, but to my knowledge no studies on the effects of wind power development on wolves in Scandinavia have so far been done. A monitoring programme in Portugal has shown that wolves were influenced by wind power development especially during the construction phase, wherefore it could be assumed that this is applicable in this study area too. Using GPS and VHF positions (wolf pair level: n = 56335; individual level: n = 17859) of wolves (wolf pair level: n = 58; individual level: n = 38) in Norway and Sweden, I investigated if there is the potential for wind power development to influence wolf area use by using wolf space use data from before the construction. This was done by looking at overlap of proposed and established wind power plants, consisting of one or several clusters of wind turbines, with wolf territories on the landscape level and on a finer scale in the immediate surroundings of the wind turbines. Since wolf pairs travel together most of the year, except during the denning season, I analysed observations on two levels: as individuals during the denning season and in wolf pairs for the remainder of the year. My results indicate that on the wolf pair level the highest overlap is found during the denning season, followed by the rendezvous season, early winter and least in late winter. The same pattern was found for the probability of individual wind turbines being placed in the wolf activity centre. However, the proportion of areal overlap between wind power plants and the wolf activity centre were rather low on both the wolf pair level (mean: 0.02; range: 0.00 - 0.56; 95% CI [0.01; 0.02]) and the individual level (mean: 0.05; range: 0.00 - 0.61; 95% CI [0.01; 0.08]). On the individual level, sex, reproductive status, and time of day were affecting both the wolf usage index and probability of individual wind turbines being placed in the wolf activity centre. The wolf usage index at turbine sites for non-breeding wolves (mean: 0.31; range: 0.00 - 0.99; 95% CI [0.29, 0.33]) was higher compared to breeding wolves (mean: 0.21; range: 0.00 - 0.99; 95% CI [0.19, 0.21]). The probability of individual wind turbines being placed in the activity centre was low and no large differences between reproductive statuses and sex were found. These findings are in accordance with previous findings, that wolves are most vulnerable to wind power development during the denning season. However, my findings indicate that wolf family groups might be vulnerable to wind power development also during the rendezvous and early winter season. To verify the findings of my study, quasi-experimental studies with a Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) design on radio-collared wolves could be used. If this verifies my findings, the here used approach could be a more time- and cost-effective way than BACI studies to provide information for EIAs in the future

Financial considerations of South African environmental problems

No panacea exists for the resolution of environmental problems. In South Africa environmental control is affected almost exclusively by way of direct prohibition an~ regulation. These policies have serious limitations predominantly as a result of legal and administrative inadequacies. The remedy of these inadequacies is not feasible and alternative, complementary or replacement control policies are needed. This report reviews a number of alternative policies, most of which rely on market related mechanisms, in the context of pollution, resource destruction and land use problems. In addition, current financial legislation is replete with provisions contributing towards the exacerbation of environmental ills. These anomalous provisions must be re-evaluated in terms of material objectives, which must include the need for sound environmental resource management. A number of provisions do, however, offer some potential for conservation activities. These provisions, together with some innovative schemes, are introduced in the report and deserve further research

Diffusion of linalool and methylchavicol from polyethylene-based antimicrobial packaging films

The diffusion of linalool and methylchavicol from thin (45–50 μm) antimicrobial low-density polyethylene-based films was evaluated after immersion in isooctane and the effect of temperature (4, 10, or 25 °C) on the diffusion rate was evaluated. The kinetics of linalool and methylchavicol release showed a non-Fickian behavior at the lowest temperature. An increase in temperature from 4 °C to 25 °C resulted in an increase in the diffusion coefficient from 4.2 × 10−13 m2 s−1 to 2.5 × 10−12 m2 s−1 for linalool and from 3.5 × 10−13 m2 s−1 to 1.1 × 10−12 m2 s−1 for methylchavicol. The effect of temperature on the diffusion coefficient followed an Arrhenius-type model (r2 = 0.972) in relation to a time-response function with a Hill coefficient. Activation energies of 57.8 kJ mol−1 (linalool) and 42.8 kJ mol−1 (methylchavicol) were observed

Nahinfrarotspektroskopische Untersuchungen zu organischem Bodenkohlenstoff im Labor und im Feld on-line

Soil organic carbon (SOC), as a key property of soil quality maintenance, varies over space and time. The assessment and monitoring of SOC is important to ensure sustainable soil management. SOC can be determined by conventional laboratory analytical techniques, but the preparation and measurement of numerous soil samples can be costly. Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) offers a novel, non-destructive technique allowing for rapid and low-cost soil analyses. The work for this thesis comprised two aspects of NIRS analysis: its application in the laboratory as well as in the field on-line. Although laboratory NIRS is an established method, there are no standard measurement procedures simplifying the comparability of spectral data from different NIR-devices and spectra collected over time from the same device. Therefore, the laboratory application of NIRS was investigated with the aim to optimise soil sample preparation and measurement in order to give recommendations for a standard measurement protocol. Furthermore, the on-line field application of NIRS is relatively new, and thus there is still a need for an evaluation of the NIR-system, manufactured by the North American company VERIS Technologies Inc., used in this study. The field application of NIRS was examined via a comparison between horizontal measurements with a shank and vertical measurements with a probe for a two- and three-dimensional view into the soil. Further investigations were carried out to test the accuracy and reproducibility of the horizontal mapping. All measurements were used to map and characterise agricultural soils in Northern Germany, with the main focus on the calibration and prediction of SOC and total nitrogen (N) concentrations and SOC stocks. Generally, this work confirmed that laboratory- and field-based NIR measurements have a great potential for assessing the organic carbon and total nitrogen content in agricultural soils.Der organische Bodenkohlenstoff (OBK) spielt für die Erhaltung der Bodenqualität eine wichtige Rolle. Da er räumlich und zeitlich veränderlich ist, ist es erforderlich, den Gehalt des OBK zu messen und dessen Veränderungen festzustellen, um eine nachhaltige Bodenbewirtschaftung gewährleisten zu können. Der OBK kann mit konventionellen Laboranalysemethoden bestimmt werden, jedoch kann die Aufbereitung und Messung zahlreicher Bodenproben sehr teuer sein. Mit der Nahinfrarotspektroskopie (NIRS) ist eine zerstörungsfreie Messtechnik gegeben, mit der Bodenanalysen zeiteffektiv und kostengünstig durchgeführt werden können. Mit der vorliegenden Arbeit werden zwei Aspekte der NIRS behandelt: die Anwendung im Labor und auch die Anwendung im Feld on-line. Auch wenn die NIRS eine im Labor bewährte Anwendung darstellt, gibt es nach wie vor kein standardisiertes Messverfahren, das die Vergleichbarkeit von Bodenspektren verschiedener NIR-Geräte bzw. die Vergleichbarkeit von Spektren, welche von einem Gerät über einen längeren Zeitraum aufgenommenen wurden, vereinfacht. Daher wurde in dieser Arbeit eine Optimierung der Probenvorbereitung und -messung angestrebt, um Empfehlungen für ein einheitliches Labormessprotokoll geben zu können. Die NIRS Anwendung im Feld ist noch recht neu, so dass das speziell in dieser Arbeit verwendete NIR-System der nordamerikanischen Firma VERIS Technologies Inc. einer weiteren Bewertung bedarf. Hierbei wurden horizontale NIR-Messungen mit einem Pflug für eine zweidimensionale und vertikale NIR-Messungen mit einem Bohrgerät für eine dreidimensionale Datenaufnahme durchgeführt und die aufgenommen Bodendaten miteinander verglichen. Ebenso wurde die Genauigkeit und Reproduzierbarkeit der mit dem Pflug aufgenommen Bodendaten untersucht. Alle hier durchgeführten Messungen dienten der Datenaufnahme und Charakterisierung von Ackerböden Norddeutschlands mit dem Ziel, OBK- und Gesamtstickstoffgehalte sowie OBK-Vorräte zu kalibrieren und zu schätzen. Grundsätzlich bestätigt diese Arbeit, dass labor- und feldbasierte NIR-Messungen ein großes Potential haben, den OBK- und Gesamtstickstoffgehalt von Ackerböden zu bestimmen

The role of depression in sexual behaviour linked to STI and HIV transmission: a study of HIV-negative and untested gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men in England

HIV transmission remains ongoing among men who have sex with men (MSM). Depressive symptomatology has been linked to sexual risk-taking among sexually active MSM in the U.S. Data in Europe are lacking. The aim of this thesis was to investigate the role of depressive symptoms in sexual behaviours linked to STI/HIV transmission among gay, bisexual, and other MSM in the UK, using data from two studies. AURAH (Attitudes to, and Understanding of, Risk of Acquisition of HIV) was a cross-sectional study of HIV-negative MSM attending 20 genitourinary medicine (GUM) clinics across England (2013-2014). Men reporting recent sex were included in analysis (N=1340). PROUD was a randomized trial to assess the effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis among MSM reporting condomless sex (CLS), and therefore at high-risk for HIV acquisition, in England (2012-2014, N=540 at baseline). Across studies/time-points, prevalence of depressive symptoms (PHQ-9≥10) ranged from 12.4%-14.4%; associated factors included lower socio-economic status, lower supportive network, concealment of sexuality, bisexual-identity, anti-gay attitudes, recreational drug use, and intimate partner violence. Among sexually active men in AURAH, depressive symptoms were associated with all measures of CLS, including previous sexually transmitted infection and post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) use, even after adjusting for socio-demographics and recreational drug use (adjusted prevalence ratio for ≥2 CLS partners: 1.28 95% CI: 1.05, 1.56; p=0.013). In structural equation modelling, depression was associated with CLS indirectly via low self-efficacy (perceived inability to ensure condom-use when desired) (p<0.001). Among the PROUD sample of men reporting CLS, depressive symptoms were associated with PEP use, but not with greater versus lower levels of CLS. Among samples with high levels of sexual risk, factors with disinhibiting effects (i.e. drug use) may better explain differences in behaviour. Among sexually active GUM clinic attendees, management of depression alongside interventions surrounding self-efficacy may play an important role in HIV/STI prevention

Patterns of disrupted maternal behaviour within psychoanalytic parent-infant psychotherapy: a case study [Volume 2]

Research has identified atypical parental behaviours that are associated with the development of disorganised attachment in infants. This paper reviews the literature on the different types of these atypical parental behaviours, their nature and theories regarding their aetiology. In particular, research into the mechanisms through which specific parental behaviours may lead to infants developing a disorganised attachment is considered. Within this, the research on parental unresolved childhood attachment traumas and how these may be repeated and transmitted within the parent-infant relationships are explored. This includes the research on the impact of this on infants in terms of risk of later psychopathology. Given the mental health and thus clinical implications, the literature on the ways in which parent-infant psychoanalytic psychotherapy addresses these parental behaviours, preventing these potential difficulties, is explored. Using the research to inform clinical practice, this review considers the important implications for how early disturbance in the mother-baby relationship can be addressed within this treatment modality and the importance of early intervention in promoting a more positive attachment between infant and parent

Antimicrobial Activity of Biodegradable Polysaccharide and Protein-Based Films Containing Active Agents

Significant interest has emerged in the introduction of food packaging materials manufactured from biodegradable polymers that have the potential to reduce the environmental impacts associated with conventional packaging materials. Current technologies in active packaging enable effective antimicrobial (AM) packaging films to be prepared from biodegradable materials that have been modified and/or blended with different compatible materials and/or plasticisers. A wide range of AM films prepared from modified biodegradable materials have the potential to be used for packaging of various food products. This review examines biodegradable polymers derived from polysaccharides and protein-based materials for their potential use in packaging systems designed for the protection of food products from microbial contamination. A comprehensive table that systematically analyses and categorizes much of the current literature in this area is included in the review