Evaluation of approaches to control of Maedi-Visna disease of sheep using a Markov chain simulation model for a range of typical British Flocks

An epidemiological model is described that closely mimicked results of a published serological study of natural transmission of Maedi-Visna virus in a low ground flock of sheep. We adjusted parameters in the model from this baseline to explore the possible implications for the control of Maedi-Visna virus in typical British flocks. On closed hill farms, low probability of effective contact was most critical for control. In open low ground flocks, purchasing accredited replacements eliminated disease spread, otherwise flock size was the most important factor governing flock prevalence. Results highlighted the need for more epidemiological information about Maedi-Visna, particularly whether hill farms act as a hidden reservoir of virus or reduce the impact of this disease on the industry by providing a source of clean replacementsLivestock Production/Industries, Maedi-Visna, Model, Markov Chain, Sheep, Control,

Supernova Remnants in the Fossil Starburst in M82

We report the discovery of ten compact H-alpha-bright sources in the post-starburst region northeast of the center of M82, ``M82 B.'' These objects have H alpha luminosities and sizes consistent with Type II supernova remnants (SNRs). They fall on the same H alpha surface brightness-diameter (Sigma-D) relation defined by SNRs in other nearby star-forming galaxies, with the M82 candidates lying preferentially at the small diameter end. These are the first candidates for optically-visible SNRs in M82 outside the heavily obscured central starburst within ~250 pc from the galactic center. If these sources are SNRs, they set an upper limit to the end of the starburst in region ``B2,'' about 500 pc from the galaxy's core, of ~50 Myr. Region ``B1,'' about 1000 pc from the core, lacks good SNR candidates and is evidently somewhat older. This suggests star formation in the galaxy has propagated inward toward the present-day intense starburst core.Comment: Re-submitted to AJ, referee's comments taken into account, 15 pages LaTeX preprint style, 4 postscript figures; full-resolution figures available from http://www.astro.virginia.edu/~rd7a/snrs/ Changes: minor textual changes and orientation/axes of Fig.

Cost-Effective Strategies for Mitigating a Future Influenza Pandemic with H1N1 2009 Characteristics

Background: We performed an analysis of the cost-effectiveness of pandemic intervention strategies using a detailed, individual-based simulation model of a community in Australia together with health outcome data of infected individuals gathered during 2009–2010. The aim was to examine the cost-effectiveness of a range of interventions to determine the most cost-effective strategies suitable for a future pandemic with H1N1 2009 characteristics. Methodology/Principal Findings: Using transmissibility, age-stratified attack rates and health outcomes determined from H1N1 2009 data, we determined that the most cost-effective strategies involved treatment and household prophylaxis using antiviral drugs combined with limited duration school closure, with costs ranging from $632 to$777 per case prevented. When school closure was used as a sole intervention we found the use of limited duration school closure to be significantly more cost-effective compared to continuous school closure, a result with applicability to countries with limited access to antiviral drugs. Other social distancing strategies, such as reduced workplace attendance, were found to be costly due to productivity losses. Conclusion: The mild severity (low hospitalisation and case fatality rates) and low transmissibility of H1N1 2009 meant that health treatment costs were dominated by the higher productivity losses arising from workplace absence due to illness and childcare requirements following school closure. Further analysis for higher transmissibility but with the same, mild severit

Aortic valve replacement in a young patient with essential thrombocytosis

Essential Thrombocythcythaemia (ET) is an uncommon type of myeloproliferative disorder, characterised by both thrombotic and haemorrhagic diathesis. No clear guidelines exist for the pre- and post-operative management of patients undergoing cardiac surgery in the haematological and surgical literature. This condition has profound implications in patients undergoing cardiac surgery with the use of cardiopulmonary bypass, where heparin is used for anti-coagulation. This dilemma is further compounded in the setting of a young patient undergoing aortic valve replacement (AVR), where insertion of a mechanical prosthesis would be the procedure of choice. This would require life-long anticoagulation with warfarin which can predispose these patients to catastrophic bleeding. Using a tissue valve will subject the patient to multiple redo operations in the patient's lifetime. We report a young patient with ET requiring AVR and discuss the dilemmas surrounding the choice of prosthesis in this patient

The Impact of Case Diagnosis Coverage and Diagnosis Delays on the Effectiveness of Antiviral Strategies in Mitigating Pandemic Influenza A/H1N1 2009

BACKGROUND: Neuraminidase inhibitors were used to reduce the transmission of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 at the early stages of the 2009/2010 pandemic. Policies for diagnosis of influenza for the purposes of antiviral intervention differed markedly between and within countries, leading to differences in the timing and scale of antiviral usage. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The impact of the percentage of symptomatic infected individuals who were diagnosed, and of delays to diagnosis, for three antiviral intervention strategies (each with and without school closure) were determined using a simulation model of an Australian community. Epidemic characteristics were based on actual data from the A/H1N1 2009 pandemic including reproduction number, serial interval and age-specific infection rate profile. In the absence of intervention an illness attack rate (AR) of 24.5% was determined from an estimated R(0) of 1.5; this was reduced to 21%, 16.5% or 13% by treatment-only, treatment plus household prophylaxis, or treatment plus household plus extended prophylaxis antiviral interventions respectively, assuming that diagnosis occurred 24 hours after symptoms arose and that 50% of symptomatic cases were diagnosed. If diagnosis occurred without delay, ARs decreased to 17%, 12.2% or 8.8% respectively. If 90% of symptomatic cases were diagnosed (with a 24 hour delay), ARs decreased to 17.8%, 11.1% and 7.6%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The ability to rapidly diagnose symptomatic cases and to diagnose a high proportion of cases was shown to improve the effectiveness of all three antiviral strategies. For epidemics with R(0)< = 1.5 our results suggest that when the case diagnosis coverage exceeds ∼70% the size of the antiviral stockpile required to implement the extended prophylactic strategy decreases. The addition of at least four weeks of school closure was found to further reduce cumulative and peak attack rates and the size of the required antiviral stockpile

A network analysis to identify mediators of germline-driven differences in breast cancer prognosis.

Identifying the underlying genetic drivers of the heritability of breast cancer prognosis remains elusive. We adapt a network-based approach to handle underpowered complex datasets to provide new insights into the potential function of germline variants in breast cancer prognosis. This network-based analysis studies ~7.3 million variants in 84,457 breast cancer patients in relation to breast cancer survival and confirms the results on 12,381 independent patients. Aggregating the prognostic effects of genetic variants across multiple genes, we identify four gene modules associated with survival in estrogen receptor (ER)-negative and one in ER-positive disease. The modules show biological enrichment for cancer-related processes such as G-alpha signaling, circadian clock, angiogenesis, and Rho-GTPases in apoptosis

'If You Desire to Enjoy Life, Avoid Unpunctual People': Women, Timetabling and Domestic Advice, 1850–1910

In the second half of the nineteenth century domestic advice manuals applied the language of modern, public time management to the private sphere. This article uses domestic advice and cookery books, including Isabella Beeton's Book of Household Management, to argue that women in the home operated within multiple, overlapping temporalities that incorporated daily, annual, linear and cyclical scales. I examine how seasonal and annual timescales coexisted with the ticking clock of daily time as a framework within which women were instructed to organize their lives in order to conclude that the increasing concern of advice writers with matters of timekeeping and punctuality towards the end of the nineteenth century indicates not the triumph of 'clock time' but rather its failure to overturn other ways of thinking about and using time