Integrating remote sensing datasets into ecological modelling: a Bayesian approach

Process-based models have been used to simulate 3-dimensional complexities of forest ecosystems and their temporal changes, but their extensive data requirement and complex parameterisation have often limited their use for practical management applications. Increasingly, information retrieved using remote sensing techniques can help in model parameterisation and data collection by providing spatially and temporally resolved forest information. In this paper, we illustrate the potential of Bayesian calibration for integrating such data sources to simulate forest production. As an example, we use the 3-PG model combined with hyperspectral, LiDAR, SAR and field-based data to simulate the growth of UK Corsican pine stands. Hyperspectral, LiDAR and SAR data are used to estimate LAI dynamics, tree height and above ground biomass, respectively, while the Bayesian calibration provides estimates of uncertainties to model parameters and outputs. The Bayesian calibration contrasts with goodness-of-fit approaches, which do not provide uncertainties to parameters and model outputs. Parameters and the data used in the calibration process are presented in the form of probability distributions, reflecting our degree of certainty about them. After the calibration, the distributions are updated. To approximate posterior distributions (of outputs and parameters), a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling approach is used (25 000 steps). A sensitivity analysis is also conducted between parameters and outputs. Overall, the results illustrate the potential of a Bayesian framework for truly integrative work, both in the consideration of field-based and remotely sensed datasets available and in estimating parameter and model output uncertainties

Radio Emission from the Composite Supernova Remnant G326.3-1.8 (MSH15-56)

High resolution radio observations of the composite supernova remnant (SNR) G326.3-1.8 or MSH 15-56 with the Australia Telescope Compact Array show details of both the shell and the bright plerion which is offset about 1/3 of the distance from the center of the SNR to the shell. The shell appears to be composed of thin filaments, typical of older shell SNRs. The central part of the elongated plerion is composed of a bundle of parallel ridges which bulge out at the ends and form a distinct ring structure on the northwestern end. The magnetic field with a strength of order 45 microGauss, is directed along the axis of the ridges but circles around the northwestern ring. This plerion is large and bright in the radio but is not detected in x-ray or optical wavelengths. There is, however, a faint hard x-ray feature closer to the shell outside the plerion. Perhaps if the supernova explosion left a rapidly moving magnetar with large energy input but initially rapid decay of both relativistic particles and magnetic field, the observed differences with wavelength could be explained.Comment: 15 pages, 10 figures, accepted by Ap

Time to publication for NIHR HTA programme-funded research: a cohort study

ObjectiveTo assess the time to publication of primary research and evidence syntheses funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme published as a monograph in Health Technology Assessment and as a journal article in the wider biomedical literature.Study designRetrospective cohort study.SettingPrimary research and evidence synthesis projects funded by the HTA Programme were included in the cohort if they were registered in the NIHR research programmes database and was planned to submit the draft final report for publication in Health Technology Assessment on or before 9 December 2011.Main outcome measuresThe median time to publication and publication at 30?months in Health Technology Assessment and in an external journal were determined by searching the NIHR research programmes database and HTA Programme website.ResultsOf 458 included projects, 184 (40.2%) were primary research projects and 274 (59.8%) were evidence syntheses. A total of 155 primary research projects had a completion date; the median time to publication was 23?months (26.5 and 35.5?months to publish a monograph and to publish in an external journal, respectively) and 69% were published within 30?months. The median time to publication of HTA-funded trials (n=126) was 24?months and 67.5% were published within 30?months. Among the evidence syntheses with a protocol online date (n=223), the median time to publication was 25.5?months (28?months to publication as a monograph), but only 44.4% of evidence synthesis projects were published in an external journal. 65% of evidence synthesis studies had been published within 30.0?months.ConclusionsResearch funded by the HTA Programme publishes promptly. The importance of Health Technology Assessment was highlighted as the median time to publication was 9?months shorter for a monograph than an external journal article

The ASCA Spectrum of the Vela Pulsar Jet

ROSAT observations of the Vela pulsar and its surroundings revealed a collimated X-ray feature almost 45' in length (Markwardt & Ogelman 1995), interpreted as the signature ``cocoon'' of a one-sided jet from the Vela pulsar. We report on a new ASCA observation of the Vela pulsar jet at its head, the point where the jet is believed to interact with the supernova remnant. The head is clearly detected, and its X-ray spectrum is remarkably similar to the surrounding supernova remnant spectrum, extending to X-ray energies of at least 7 keV. A ROSAT+ASCA spectrum can be fit by two-component emission models but not standard one-component models. The lower energy component is thermal and has a temperature of 0.29+/-0.03 keV (1 sigma); the higher energy component can be fit by either a thermal component of temperature ~4 keV or a power law with photon index ~2.0. Compared to the ROSAT-only results, the mechanical properties of the jet and its cocoon do not change much. If the observed spectrum is that of a hot jet cocoon, then the speed of the jet is at least 800 km s^-1, depending on the angle of inclination. The mechanical power driving the jet is >10^36 erg s^-1, and the mass flow rate at the head is > 10^-6 M_sun yr^-1. We conclude that the jet must be entraining material all along its length in order to generate such a large mass flow rate. We also explore the possibility that the cocoon emission is synchrotron radiation instead of thermal.Comment: 12 pages, LaTeX in AAS v4.0 preprint style, two PS figures, accepted for publication in the ApJ Letter

IC 4406: a radio-infrared view

IC 4406 is a large (about 100'' x 30'') southern bipolar planetary nebula, composed of two elongated lobes extending from a bright central region, where there is evidence for the presence of a large torus of gas and dust. We show new observations of this source performed with IRAC (Spitzer Space Telescope) and the Australia Telescope Compact Array. The radio maps show that the flux from the ionized gas is concentrated in the bright central region and originates in a clumpy structure previously observed in H_alpha, while in the infrared images filaments and clumps can be seen in the extended nebular envelope, the central region showing toroidal emission. Modeling of the infrared emission leads to the conclusion that several dust components are present in the nebula.Comment: 22 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal; v.2 has changes in both figures and content; preprint forma

Strength of Materials

n/

Bernoulli type polynomials on Umbral Algebra

The aim of this paper is to investigate generating functions for modification of the Milne-Thomson's polynomials, which are related to the Bernoulli polynomials and the Hermite polynomials. By applying the Umbral algebra to these generating functions, we provide to deriving identities for these polynomials

Elements of Mechanics

n/

Summation and transformation formulas for elliptic hypergeometric series

Using matrix inversion and determinant evaluation techniques we prove several summation and transformation formulas for terminating, balanced, very-well-poised, elliptic hypergeometric series.Comment: 21 pages, AMS-LaTe

A new multivariable 6-psi-6 summation formula

By multidimensional matrix inversion, combined with an A_r extension of Jackson's 8-phi-7 summation formula by Milne, a new multivariable 8-phi-7 summation is derived. By a polynomial argument this 8-phi-7 summation is transformed to another multivariable 8-phi-7 summation which, by taking a suitable limit, is reduced to a new multivariable extension of the nonterminating 6-phi-5 summation. The latter is then extended, by analytic continuation, to a new multivariable extension of Bailey's very-well-poised 6-psi-6 summation formula.Comment: 16 page