Fiscal policy in a depressed economy : was there a ‘free lunch’ in 1930s’ Britain?

We report estimates of the fiscal multiplier for interwar Britain based on quarterly data and timeseries econometrics. We find that the government-expenditure multiplier was in the range 0.3 to 0.9 even during the period that interest rates were at the lower bound. The scope for a ‘Keynesian solution’to recession was much less than is generally supposed. In the later 1930s but not before Britain’s exit from the gold standard, there was a ‘fiscal free lunch’in that deficit-financed government spending would have improved public finances enough to pay for the interest on the extra debt

Rearmament to the rescue? New estimates of the impact of ‘Keynesian’ policies in 1930s’ Britain

We report estimates of the fiscal multiplier for interwar Britain based on quarterly data, time-series econometrics, and ‘defense news’. We find that the government expenditure multiplier was in the range 0.3 to 0.8, much lower than previous estimates. The scope for a Keynesian solution to recession was less than is generally supposed. We find that rearmament gave a smaller boost to real GDP than previously claimed. Rearmament may, however, have had a larger impact than a temporary public works program of similar magnitude if private investment anticipated the need to add capacity to cope with future defense spending

An experimental/analytical program to assess the utility of lidar for pollution monitoring

The development and demonstration of lidar techniques for the remote measurement of atmospheric constituents and transport processes in the lower troposphere was carried out. Particular emphasis was given to techniques for monitoring SO2 and particulates, the principal pollutants in power plant and industrial plumes. Data from a plume dispersion study conducted in Maryland during September and October 1976 were reduced, and a data base was assembled which is available to the scientific community for plume model verification. A UV Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) was built, and preliminary testing was done

A theoretical/experimental program to develop active optical pollution sensors

Light detection and ranging (LIDAR) technology was applied to the assessment of air quality, and its usefulness was evaluated by actual field tests. Necessary hardware was successfully constructed and operated in the field. Measurements of necessary physical parameters, such as SO2 absorption coefficients were successfully completed and theoretical predictions of differential absorption performance were reported. Plume modeling improvements were proposed. A full scale field test of equipment, data analysis and auxiliary data support was conducted in Maryland during September 1976

A Better Definition of the Kilogram

This article reviews several recent proposed redefinitions of the kilogram, and compares them with respect to practical realizations, uncertainties (estimated standard deviations), and educational aspects.Comment: 10 pages, no figure

Self-defeating austerity? Evidence from 1930s' Britain

Self-defeating austerity entails “perverse effects” of fiscal consolidation such that fiscal indicators deteriorate. Inter alia, this depends on the size of the fiscal multiplier as Keynes (1933. The Means to Prosperity. London: Macmillan) underlined. We find that the government-expenditure multiplier was less than 1 in 1930s' Britain. Austerity was not self-defeating in the long run and even its initial impact probably did not raise the public debt-to-GDP ratio. In the later 1930s, there was a “fiscal free lunch” in that deficit-financed government spending would have improved public finances enough to pay for the interest on the extra debt

Six centuries of British economic growth : a time-series perspective

This paper provides a time-series analysis of recent annual estimates of real GDP and industrial output covering 1270–1913. We show that growth can be regarded as a segmented trend-stationary process. On this basis, we find that trend growth of real GDP per person was zero prior to the 1660s but then experienced two significant accelerations, pre- and post-industrial revolution. We also find that the hallmark of the industrial revolution is a substantial increase in the trend rate of growth of industrial output rather than being an episode of difference stationary growth

Epitaxial Ferromagnetic Nanoislands of Cubic GdN in Hexagonal GaN

Periodic structures of GdN particles encapsulated in a single crystalline GaN matrix were prepared by plasma assisted molecular beam epitaxy. High resolution X-ray diffractometery shows that GdN islands, with rock salt structure are epitaxially oriented to the wurtzite GaN matrix. Scanning transmission electron microscopy combined with in-situ reflection high energy electron diffraction allows for the study of island formation dynamics, which occurs after 1.2 monolayers of GdN coverage. Magnetometry reveals two ferromagnetic phases, one due to GdN particles with Curie temperature of 70K and a second, anomalous room temperature phase.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Predicting medium-term TFP growth in the United States : econometrics vs ‘techno-optimism’

We analyse TFP growth in the US business sector using a basic unobserved component model where trend growth follows a random walk and the noise is a first order autoregression. This is fitted using a Kalman-filter methodology. We find that trend TFP growth has declined steadily from 1.5 to 1.0 per cent per year over the past 50 years. Nevertheless, recent trends are not a good guide to actual medium-term TFP growth. This exhibits substantial variations and is quite unpredictable. Techno-optimists should not give best to productivity pessimists simply because recent TFP growth has been weak