Basic studies of baroclinic flows

A fully nonlinear 3-dimensional numerical model (GEOSIM), previously developed and validated for several cases of geophysical fluid flow, has been used to investigate the dynamical behavior of laboratory experiments of fluid flows similar to those of the Earth's atmosphere. The phenomena investigated are amplitude vacillation, and the response of the fluid system to uneven heating and cooling. The previous year's work included hysteresis in the transition between axisymmetric and wave flow. Investigation is also continuing of the flows in the Geophysical Fluid Flow Cell (GFFC), a low-gravity Spacelab experiment. Much of the effort in the past year has been spent in validation of the model under a wide range of external parameters including nonlinear flow regimes. With the implementation of a 3-dimensional upwind differencing scheme, higher spectral resolution, and a shorter time step, the model has been found capable of predicting the majority of flow regimes observed in one complete series of baroclinic annulus experiments of Pfeffer and co-workers. Detailed analysis of amplitude vacillation has revealed that the phase splitting described in the laboratory experiments occurs in some but not all cases. Through the use of animation of the models output, a vivid 3-dimensional view of the phase splitting was shown to the audience of the Southeastern Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Conference in March of this year. A study on interannual variability was made using GEOSIM with periodic variations in the thermal forcing. Thus far, the model has not predicted a chaotic behavior as observed in the experiments, although there is a sensitivity in the wavenumber selection to the initial conditions. Work on this subject, and on annulus experiments with non-axisymmetric thermal heating, will continue. The comparison of GEOSIM's predictions will result from the Spacelab 3 GFFC experiments continued over the past year, on a 'back-burner' basis. At this point, the study (in the form of a draft of a journal article) is nearly completed. The results from GEOSIM compared very well with the experiments, and the use of the model allows the demonstration of flow mechanics that were not possible with the experimental data. For example, animation of the model output shows that the forking of the spiral bands is a transient phenomenon, due to the differential east-west propagation of convection bands from different latitudes

Basic studies of baroclinic flows

Computations were completed of transition curves in the conventional annulus, including hysteresis effect. The model GEOSIM was used to compute the transition between axisymmetric flow and baroclinic wave flow in the conventional annulus experiments. Thorough testing and documentation of the GEOSIM code were also completed. The Spacelab 3 results from the Geophysical Fluid Flow Cell (GFFC) were reviewed and numerical modeling was performed of many of the cases with horizontal temperature gradients as well as heating from below, with different rates of rotation. A numerical study of the lower transition to axisymmetric flow in the baroclinic annulus was performed using GEOSIM

Advanced Heart Failure: A Call to Action

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/73182/1/j.1751-7133.2008.00022.x.pd

Laboratory and theoretical studies of baroclinic processes

An understanding is being developed for processes which may be important in the atmosphere, and the definition and analysis of baroclinic experiments utilizing the geophysical fluid flow cells (GFFC) apparatus in microgravity space flights. Included are studies using numerical codes, theoretical models, and terrestrial laboratory experiments. The numerical modeling is performed in three stages: calculation of steady axisymmetric flow, calculation of fastest-growing linear eigenmodes, and nonlinear effects (first, wave-mean flow interactions, then wave-wave interactions). The code can accommodate cylindrical, spherical, or channel geometry. It uses finite differences in the vertical and meridional directions, and is spectral in the azimuthal. The theoretical work was mostly in the area of effects of topography upon the baroclinic instability problem. The laboratory experiments are performed in a cylindrical annulus which has a temperture gradient imposed upon the lower surface and an approximately isothermal outer wall, with the upper and inner surfaces being nominally thermally insulating

Age hardening in binary martensitic Fe-Ni alloys

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/22482/1/0000023.pd

Coping with Natural Hazards in a Conservation Context: Resource-Use Decisions of Maasai Households During Recent and Historical Droughts

Analyzing people’s decisions can reveal key variables that affect their behaviors. Despite the demonstrated utility of this approach, it has not been applied to livelihood decisions in the context of conservation initiatives. We used ethnographic decision modeling in combination with qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) to examine the herding decisions of Maasai households living near Tarangire National Park (TNP) during recent and historical droughts. The effects of the establishment of TNP on herding practices during drought were different than anticipated based on the size and reliability of several prominent resource areas that are now within the park. We found little evidence of people relying on these swamps and rivers for watering cattle during historical droughts; rather, these sites were more commonly used as grazing areas for small stock and wet-season grazing areas for cattle to avoid disease carried by calving wildebeest. Yet during the 2009 drought, many herders moved their livestock – especially cattle from outside of the study area – toward TNP in search of grazing. Our analysis of herding decisions demonstrates that resource-use decisions are complex and incorporate a variety of information beyond the size or reliability of a given resource area, including contextual factors (e.g., disease, conflict, grazing) and household factors (e.g., social capital, labor, herd size). More broadly, this research illustrates that pairing decision modeling with QCA is a structured approach to identifying these factors and understanding how opportunities, constraints, and perceptions influence how people respond to changes in resource access

Feedbacks between conservation and social-ecological systems

Robust ways to meet objectives of environmental conservation and social and economic development remain elusive. This struggle may in part be related to insufficient understanding of the feedbacks between conservation initiatives and social-ecological systems, specifically, the ways in which conservation initiatives result in social changes that have secondary effects on the environments targeted by conservation. To explore this idea we sampled peer-reviewed articles addressing the social and environmental dimensions of conservation and coded each paper according to its research focus and characterization of these feedbacks. The majority of articles in our sample focused either on the effect of conservation initiatives on people (e.g., relocation, employment) or the effect of people on the environment (e.g., fragmentation, conservation efficacy of traditional management systems). Few studies in our sample empirically addressed both the social dynamics resulting from conservation initiatives and subsequent environmental effects. In many cases, one was measured and the other was discussed anecdotally. Among the studies that describe feedbacks between social and environmental variables, there was more evidence of positive (amplifying) feedbacks between social and environmental outcomes (i.e., undesirable social outcomes yielded undesirable environmental effects, and desirable social outcomes yielded desirable environmental effects). The major themes within the sampled literature include conflict between humans and wild animals, social movements, adaptive comanagement, loss of traditional management systems, traditional ecological knowledge, human displacement and risks to livelihoods, and conservation and development. The narratives associated with each theme can serve as hypotheses for facilitating further discussion about conservation issues and for catalyzing future studies of the feedbacks between conservation and social-ecological systems

A comparative study of discriminating human heart failure etiology using gene expression profiles

BACKGROUND: Human heart failure is a complex disease that manifests from multiple genetic and environmental factors. Although ischemic and non-ischemic heart disease present clinically with many similar decreases in ventricular function, emerging work suggests that they are distinct diseases with different responses to therapy. The ability to distinguish between ischemic and non-ischemic heart failure may be essential to guide appropriate therapy and determine prognosis for successful treatment. In this paper we consider discriminating the etiologies of heart failure using gene expression libraries from two separate institutions. RESULTS: We apply five new statistical methods, including partial least squares, penalized partial least squares, LASSO, nearest shrunken centroids and random forest, to two real datasets and compare their performance for multiclass classification. It is found that the five statistical methods perform similarly on each of the two datasets: it is difficult to correctly distinguish the etiologies of heart failure in one dataset whereas it is easy for the other one. In a simulation study, it is confirmed that the five methods tend to have close performance, though the random forest seems to have a slight edge. CONCLUSIONS: For some gene expression data, several recently developed discriminant methods may perform similarly. More importantly, one must remain cautious when assessing the discriminating performance using gene expression profiles based on a small dataset; our analysis suggests the importance of utilizing multiple or larger datasets

Impaired Competence for Pretense in Children with Autism: Exploring Potential Cognitive Predictors.

Lack of pretense in children with autism has been explained by a number of theoretical explanations, including impaired mentalising, impaired response inhibition, and weak central coherence. This study aimed to empirically test each of these theories. Children with autism (n=60) were significantly impaired relative to controls (n=65) when interpreting pretense, thereby supporting a competence deficit hypothesis. They also showed impaired mentalising and response inhibition, but superior local processing indicating weak central coherence. Regression analyses revealed that mentalising significantly and independently predicted pretense. The results are interpreted as supporting the impaired mentalising theory and evidence against competing theories invoking impaired response inhibition or a local processing bias. The results of this study have important implications for treatment and intervention

Body size data collected non-invasively from drone images indicate a morphologically distinct Chilean blue whale (Blaenoptera musculus) taxon

© The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Leslie, M. S., Perkins-Taylor, C. M., Durban, J. W., Moore, M. J., Miller, C. A., Chanarat, P., Bahamonde, P., Chiang, G., & Apprill, A. Body size data collected non-invasively from drone images indicate a morphologically distinct Chilean blue whale (Blaenoptera musculus) taxon. Endangered Species Research, 43, (2020): 291-304, https://doi.org/10.3354/esr01066.The blue whale Balaenoptera musculus (Linnaeus, 1758) was the target of intense commercial whaling in the 20th century, and current populations remain drastically below pre-whaling abundances. Reducing uncertainty in subspecific taxonomy would enable targeted conservation strategies for the recovery of unique intraspecific diversity. Currently, there are 2 named blue whale subspecies in the temperate to polar Southern Hemisphere: the Antarctic blue whale B. m. intermedia and the pygmy blue whale B. m. brevicauda. These subspecies have distinct morphologies, genetics, and acoustics. In 2019, the Society for Marine Mammalogy’s Committee on Taxonomy agreed that evidence supports a third (and presently unnamed) subspecies of Southern Hemisphere blue whale subspecies, the Chilean blue whale. Whaling data indicate that the Chilean blue whale is intermediate in body length between pygmy and Antarctic blue whales. We collected body size data from blue whales in the Gulfo Corcovado, Chile, during the austral summers of 2015 and 2017 using aerial photogrammetry from a remotely controlled drone to test the hypothesis that the Chilean blue whale is morphologically distinct from other Southern Hemisphere blue whale subspecies. We found the Chilean whale to be morphologically intermediate in both overall body length and relative tail length, thereby joining other diverse data in supporting the Chilean blue whale as a unique subspecific taxon. Additional photogrammetry studies of Antarctic, pygmy, and Chilean blue whales will help examine unique morphological variation within this species of conservation concern. To our knowledge, this is the first non-invasive small drone study to test a hypothesis for systematic biology.We are thankful to Foundation MERI (Melimoyu Ecosystem Research Institute) for logistical and funding support. Cruise support in 2017 was provided by the Dalio Foundation (now ‘OceanX’)