Does the Cause of Death Matter? The Effect of Dread, Controllability, Exposure and Latency on the Vsl

The Value of a Statistical Life is a key input into the calculation of the benefits of environmental policies that save lives. To date, the VSL used in environmental policy analyses has not been adjusted for age or the cause of death. Air pollution regulations, however, are linked to reductions in the risk of dying for cancer, heart disease, and respiratory illnesses, raising the question whether a single VSL should be applied for all of these causes of death. We conducted a conjoint choice experiment survey in Milan, Italy, to investigate this question. We find that the VSL increases with dread, exposure, the respondents’ assessments of the baseline risks, and experience with the specific risks being studied. The VSL is higher when the risk reduction is delivered by a public program, and increases with the effectiveness rating assigned by the respondent to public programs that address specific causes of death. The effectiveness of private risk-reducing behaviors is also positively associated with the VSL, but the effect is only half as large as that of public program effectiveness. The coefficients on dummies for the cause of death per se—namely, whether it’s cancer, a road traffic accident or a respiratory illness—are strongly statistically significant. All else the same, the fact that the cause of the death is “cancer” results in a VSL that is almost one million euro above the amount predicted by dread, exposure, beliefs, etc. The VSL in the road safety context is about one million euro less than what is predicted by dread, exposure, beliefs, etc. These effects are large, but the majority of the variation in the VSL is accounted for by the public program feature, the effectiveness of public programs at reducing the indicated risk, and dread. The effects of exposure and experience are smaller. These results raise the question whether using VSL figures based on private risk reduction, which is usually recommended to avoid double-counting, severely understates how much a society might be willing to pay for public safety.VSL, Conjoint Choice Experiments, Mortality Risk Reductions, Cost-benefit Analysis, Forced Choice Questions

Context and the VSL: Evidence from a Stated Preference Study in Italy and the Czech Republic

We report on the results of a survey based on conjoint choice experiments that was specifically designed to investigate the effect of context on the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL), an important input into the calculation of the mortality benefits of environmental policies that reduce premature mortality. We define “context” broadly to include i) the cause of death (respiratory illness, cancer, road traffic accident), ii) the beneficiary of the risk reduction (adult v. child), and iii) the mode of provision of the risk reduction (public program v. private good). The survey was conducted following similar protocols in Italy and the Czech Republic. When do not distinguish for the cause of death, child and adult VSL are not significantly different from one another in Italy, and the difference is weak in the Czech sample. When we distinguish for the cause of death, we find that child and adult VSLs are different at the 1% level for respiratory illnesses and road-traffic accidents, but do not differ for cancer risks. We find evidence of a “cancer premium” and a “public program premium.” In both countries, the marginal utility of income is about 20% lower among wealthier people, which makes the VSL about 20% higher among respondents with incomes above the sample average. The discount rate implicit in people‘s choices is effectively zero. We conclude that there is heterogeneity in the VSL, and that such heterogeneity is primarily driven by risk characteristics and mode of delivery of the risk reduction, rather than by individual characteristics of the respondent (e.g., income and education). For the most part, our results do not disagree with environmental policy analyses that use the same VSL for children and adults, and that apply a cancer premium.VSL, Conjoint Choice Experiments, Mortality Risk Reductions, Cost-benefit Analysis, Forced Choice Questions

The Benefits of Contaminated Site Cleanup Revisited: The Case of Naples and Caserta, Italy

Guerriero and Cairns (2009) recently estimate that contaminated sites and improper waste management result in 848 excess deaths per year in the provinces of Naples and Caserta in Southern Italy, 403 of which are fatal cancers. In the absence of estimates of the Value of a Prevented Fatality (VPF) in Italy or specific to the hazardous waste context, they use figures recommended by DG-Environment. Contrary to their claims, estimates of the VPF are available for Italy that are specific to the hazardous waste context, and for causes of death that have been linked to contaminated site exposures. We review them in this paper. We also produce new estimates of the cancer VPF using data from a recent survey conducted in Milan, Italy, in late November to mid-December 2008. The evidence points to much higher VPF figures than the ones used by Guerriero and Cairns, and hence to much larger estimates of the reduced mortality benefits of remediating the hazardous waste in the Naples and Caserta areas. We also examine the importance of the discount rates, since the mortality benefits of remediation begin in 20 years and are assumed to continue over 30 years.Value of a Prevented Fatality, Stated Preferences, Hazardous Waste Sites, Contaminated Sites, Cancer, Mortality Benefits, Cost-Benefit Analysis

Valuation of Mortality Risks Attributable to Climate Change: Investigating the Effect of Survey Administration Modes on a VSL

The health impact attributable to climate change has been identified as one of the priority areas for impact assessment. The main goal of this paper is to estimate the monetary value of one key health effect, which is premature mortality. Specifically, our goal is to derive the value of a statistical life from people’s willingness to pay for avoiding the risk of dying in one post-transition country in Europe, i.e., the Czech Republic. We carried out a series of conjoint choice experiments in order to value mortality risk reductions. We found the responses to the conjoint choice questions to be reasonable and consistent with the economic paradigm. The VSL is about EUR 2.4 million, and our estimate is comparable with the value of preventing a fatality as used in one of the integrated assessment models. To investigate whether carrying out the survey through the internet may violate the welfare estimate, we administered our questionnaire to two independent samples of respondents using two different modes of survey administration. The results show that the VSLs for the two groups of respondents are €2.25 and €2.55 million, and these figures are statistically indistinguishable. However, the key parameters of indirect utility between the two modes of survey administration are statistically different when specific subgroups of population, such as older respondents, are concerned. Based on this evidence, we conclude that properly designed and administered on-line surveys are a reliable method for administering questionnaires, even when the latter are cognitively challenging. However, attention should be paid to sampling and choice regarding the mode of survey administration if the preference of specific segments of the population is elicited

Linear probing with constant independence

Hashing with linear probing dates back to the 1950s, and is among the most studied algorithms. In recent years it has become one of the most important hash table organizations since it uses the cache of modern computers very well. Unfortunately, previous analyses rely either on complicated and space consuming hash functions, or on the unrealistic assumption of free access to a truly random hash function. Already Carter and Wegman, in their seminal paper on universal hashing, raised the question of extending their analysis to linear probing. However, we show in this paper that linear probing using a pairwise independent family may have expected logarithmic cost per operation. On the positive side, we show that 5-wise independence is enough to ensure constant expected time per operation. This resolves the question of finding a space and time efficient hash function that provably ensures good performance for linear probing

Developing a Hyperspectral Non-Technical Survey for Minefields via UAV and Helicopter

The main topic discussed in this paper is the research, development, and implementation of hyperspectral remote sensing technology in humanitarian mine action (HMA), mainly for non-technical survey (NTS) from aerial platforms. NTS should be conducted to determine whether landmines or unexploded ordnance (UXO) exist in considered areas and whether clearance is needed and if so, in what scope. The availability of the hyperspectral sensors (2011–2012) that are suitable for use with multi-engine unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) enabled the development of systems for HMA. While large and costly airborne hyperspectral systems have been available for over two decades, they had little to no impact on HMA. Optical spectroscopy brought out interest in the relationship between vegetation and explosives, and this relationship is considered herein. Therefore, we briefly analyzed the state of landmine detection via hyperspectral technology, particularly the efforts to detect the mines due to the influence of explosives on vegetation reflectance spectra

Contributions to the History of Hydrastis Canadensis (Goldenseal) in Ohio

Author Institution: Department of Pharmacognosy, College of Pharmacy, Ohio Northern University, Ada, Ohi