Major coastal impact induced by a 1000-year storm event

Extreme storms and storm surges may induce major changes along sandy barrier coastlines, potentially causing substantial environmental and economic damage. We show that the most destructive storm (the 1634 AD storm) documented for the northern Wadden Sea within the last thousand years both caused permanent barrier breaching and initiated accumulation of up to several metres of marine sand. An aggradational storm shoal and a prograding shoreface sand unit having thicknesses of up to 8 m and 5 m respectively were deposited as a result of the storm and during the subsequent 30 to 40 years long healing phase, on the eroded shoreface. Our results demonstrate that millennial-scale storms can induce large-scale and long-term changes on barrier coastlines and shorefaces, and that coastal changes assumed to take place over centuries or even millennia may occur in association with and be triggered by a single extreme storm event

Sea-level rise in Denmark: paleo context, recent projections and policy implications

We present the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) sea-level projections for four Danish cities (Aarhus, Copenhagen, Esbjerg and Hirtshals) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) family of climate scenarios. These sea-level changes projected over the next century are up to an order of magnitude larger than those observed over the previous century. At these cities, year 2150 sea-level changes of between 29 and 55 cm are projected under the very low emissions scenario (SSP1-1.9), while changes of between 99 and 123 cm are projected under the very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). These differences highlight the potentially significant impact of remaining opportunities for climate change mitigation. Due to this increase in mean sea level, the mean recurrence time between historically extreme events is expected to decrease. Under the very high emissions scenario, the historical 100-year storm flood event will become a 1- to 5-year event at most Danish harbours by 2100. There is considerable uncertainty associated with these sea-level projections, primarily driven by uncertainty in the future evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet and future sterodynamic changes in ocean volume. The AR6 characterises collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet as a low-probability but high-impact event that could cause several metres of sea-level rise around Denmark by 2150. In climate adaptation policy, the scientific landscape is shifting fast. There has been a tremendous proliferation of diverse sea-level projections in recent years, with the most relevant planning target for Denmark increasing c. 50 cm in the past two decades. Translating sea-level rise projections into planning targets requires value judgments about acceptable sea-level risk that depend on local geography, planning timeline and climate pathway. This highlights the need for an overarching national sea-level adaptation plan to ensure municipal plans conform to risk and action standards