Adaptive Variable Selection for Sequential Prediction in Multivariate Dynamic Models

We discuss Bayesian model uncertainty analysis and forecasting in sequential dynamic modeling of multivariate time series. The perspective is that of a decision-maker with a specific forecasting objective that guides thinking about relevant models. Based on formal Bayesian decision-theoretic reasoning, we develop a time-adaptive approach to exploring, weighting, combining and selecting models that differ in terms of predictive variables included. The adaptivity allows for changes in the sets of favored models over time, and is guided by the specific forecasting goals. A synthetic example illustrates how decision-guided variable selection differs from traditional Bayesian model uncertainty analysis and standard model averaging. An applied study in one motivating application of long-term macroeconomic forecasting highlights the utility of the new approach in terms of improving predictions as well as its ability to identify and interpret different sets of relevant models over time with respect to specific, defined forecasting goals.Comment: 23 pages, 11 figure

Bayesian Computation in Dynamic Latent Factor Models

Bayesian computation for filtering and forecasting analysis is developed for a broad class of dynamic models. The ability to scale-up such analyses in non-Gaussian, nonlinear multivariate time series models is advanced through the introduction of a novel copula construction in sequential filtering of coupled sets of dynamic generalized linear models. The new copula approach is integrated into recently introduced multiscale models in which univariate time series are coupled via nonlinear forms involving dynamic latent factors representing cross-series relationships. The resulting methodology offers dramatic speed-up in online Bayesian computations for sequential filtering and forecasting in this broad, flexible class of multivariate models. Two examples in nonlinear models for very heterogeneous time series of non-negative counts demonstrate massive computational efficiencies relative to existing simulation-based methods, while defining similar filtering and forecasting outcomes.Comment: 21 pages, 7 figure

The Nigerian economy: response of agriculture to adjustment policies

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Southern Folkways Journal Review Number 7

This collection of articles relating to Bulloch County begins with an report about a project on Statesboro history done by second graders at Trinity Christian School, followed by an account of the Martin Pittman Laboratory School, “Other Bulloch County Tales,” a record of the family of James R. Bird, and memories of the life of Rubye Akins Anderson by Mary Lawrence Anderson. Also included are two accounts on Brooklet, “How ‘Six Jug’ Became Atlanta’s First Automotive Star,” and research on the Dixon family.https://digitalcommons.georgiasouthern.edu/bchs-pubs/1035/thumbnail.jp

Recent trends in UK insects that inhabit early successional stages of ecosystems

Improved recording of less popular groups, combined with new statistical approaches that compensate for datasets that were hitherto too patchy for quantitative analysis, now make it possible to compare recent trends in the status of UK invertebrates other than butterflies. Using BRC datasets, we analysed changes in status between 1992 and 2012 for those invertebrates whose young stages exploit early seral stages within woodland, lowland heath and semi-natural grassland ecosystems, a habitat type that had declined during the 3 decades previous to 1990 alongside a disproportionally high number of Red Data Book species that were dependent on it. Two clear patterns emerged from a meta-analysis involving 299 classifiable species belonging to ten invertebrate taxa: (i) during the past 2 decades, most early seral species that are living near their northern climatic limits in the UK have increased relative to the more widespread members of these guilds whose distributions were not governed by a need for a warm micro-climate; and (ii) independent of climatic constraints, species that are restricted to the early stages of woodland regeneration have fared considerably less well than those breeding in the early seral stages of grasslands or, especially, heathland. The first trend is consistent with predicted benefits for northern edge-of-range species as a result of climate warming in recent decades. The second is consistent with our new assessment of the availability of early successional stages in these three ecosystems since c. 1990. Whereas the proportion and continuity of early seral patches has greatly increased within most semi-natural grasslands and lowland heaths, thanks respectively to agri-environmental schemes and conservation management, the representation of fresh clearings has continued to dwindle within UK woodlands, whose floors are increasingly shaded and ill-suited for this important guild of invertebrates

A variety of Levitrons : a review

After a brief history and critique of some older instruments, several new Levitron geometries are described. As a result of their greater stability these devices can be used as analogues of a number of phenomena and applications, including magnetic resonance techniques, atom traps and accelerator rings. In particular, the notion of the spinning magnet (or spignet) in a linear trap is similar to the mechanism underpinning the confinement of antihydrogen in a magnetic minimum trap, as achieved in experiments at CERN