68 research outputs found
An empirical investigation of climate and land-use effects on water quantity and quality in two urbanising catchments in the southern United Kingdom
Using historical data of climate, land-use, hydrology and water quality from four catchments located in the south of England, this study identifies the impact of climate and land-use change on selected water quantity and water quality indicators. The study utilises a paired catchment approach, with two catchments that have experienced a high degree of urbanisation over the past five decades and two nearby, hydrologically similar, but undeveloped catchments. Multivariate regression models were used to assess the influence of rainfall and urbanisation on runoff (annual and seasonal), dissolved oxygen levels and temperature. Results indicate: (i) no trend in annual or seasonal rainfall totals, (ii) upward trend in runoff totals in the two urban catchments but not in the rural catchments, (iii) upward trend in dissolved oxygen and temperature in the urban catchments, but not in the rural catchments, and (iv) changes in temperature and dissolved oxygen in the urban catchments are not driven by climatic variables
ABC’s Bird-Smart Wind Energy Campaign: Protecting Birds from Poorly Sited Wind Energy Development
This article summarizes American Bird Conservancy’s (ABC’s) strategies and goals for achieving Bird-Smart wind energy in the United States. We describe the current and projected impact of wind energy development on birds and bats in the United States. We also discuss how bird (and bat) conservation goals could be made more compatible with wind energy development through improved science and regulation. We provide examples of poorly sited wind energy projects, existing and proposed, which call into question the efficacy of current voluntary federal permitting guidelines. We discuss the need for improved transparency and independent site-by-site pre-construction risk assessment, science-based decision-making, independent collection and reporting of post-construction bird (and bat) fatality data, and consideration of cumulative impacts
Climate change and eutrophication risk thresholds in English rivers
Climate change is expected to alter water quality in rivers, but where and when this
may happen is uncertain. This report describes a study of projected response in the
amount of algal plant growth (phytoplankton biomass). Increasing algal growth is one of
the ecological manifestations of eutrophication in slow flowing rivers, where the water
starts to resemble a green soup. Eutrophication is a process in which too much nutrient
in water causes algae and higher plants to grow excessively.
Eutrophication alters the quality of the water and how it can be used. Phytoplankton
(suspended algae) is considered to be a useful indicator of eutrophication in standing
freshwaters and can also be useful as one measure of impacts in rivers, particularly
slow flowing rivers. Excess algal growth can result in blooms that eventually die off.
The disruption of dissolved oxygen dynamics in the water column may, in turn, have
adverse impacts on fish and macroinvertebrates. The onset and decline of algal
blooms is measured by the concentration of chlorophyll (a green pigment in algae) in
the water. In this context, algal bloom risk – and the risk of negative eutrophication
impacts in the lower reaches of rivers – is identified through observations of threshold
chlorophyll concentrations. Exceedence of a chlorophyll concentration threshold is not
by itself used in the diagnosis of river eutrophication but can be used as a proxy for
algal blooms for understanding and modelling risk.
The future risk of eutrophication impact, including algal blooms, is affected by changes
in the concentration of nutrients from altered river flow and changes in phosphorus
inputs from a range of sources. An earlier study (Phase 1 of this project) demonstrated
that climate change impacts on river flow would increase phosphorus concentrations by
2050 and beyond. However, climate-driven changes in river temperature regime and
light, and plant responses to these, are also important in altering the future risk of
excess algal growth. This report considers these aspects.
The first step was to identify the variables that control eutrophication and the thresholds
in these variables which determine the potential for algal blooms. Algal blooms tend to
occur only in rivers with a residence time (the time water takes to travel from an
upstream distance to a site) of over 4 days. Below 4 days, blooms are rare. Such long
residence times in the UK tend to occur in canals, and slow flowing and shallow
gradient rivers (often in their lower reaches). Using this residence time threshold of 4
days, a total of 26 sites in England on 24 different rivers with available data for analysis
of trends were identified out of the 115 sites from Phase 1.
Water quality data were used to identify the ranges of river flow and water temperature
within which algal blooms were measured (as determined by chlorophyll concentration)
for each site. Site-specific thresholds were identified from plots of variables of water
quality against chlorophyll concentration.
In this study, a chlorophyll threshold of 30µgl-1 indicated the onset of an algal bloom for
most rivers. Thresholds ranged between 15µgl-1 and 100µgl-1
. For larger rivers, with
higher chlorophyll levels (such as the Thames), the thresholds for algal blooms are
higher. A phosphorus threshold of 30µgl-1 was selected for all sites, based on
understanding developed through nutrient limitation experiments across a range of UK
rivers in other studies. A sunlight duration threshold of 65W/m2
/day was chosen for all
the sites based on a minimum of at least 3 hours of full sunshine per day over ~3
consecutive days (derived from earlier work). A bloom is likely to occur if all thresholds
are met at the same time. These are called bloom risk days and they represent overall
risk based on all measured variables.
A spreadsheet model was developed and applied to the 26 sites. The model used daily
estimates of controlling variables (phosphorus concentrations, river flow, water
Climate change and eutrophication risk thresholds in English rivers v
temperature and sunlight duration) from 1951 to 2098 to estimate when the derived
thresholds for each variable were met and likely to cause an algal bloom. Phosphorus
concentration estimates from earlier work were used under current wastewater
treatment conditions and under an improved wastewater treatment scenario.
Bloom risk days (when the river flow, water temperature, sunshine duration and
phosphorus concentration thresholds for algal growth were all met) increased between
the baseline period (1961 to 1990) and the 2050s future period (2040 to 2069). The
median increase is about 8 days across all sites from about 50 in the baseline period,
although the maximum increase is up to 15 days. The change in risk is variable by the
2080s (2070 to 2098), with about 50% of sites showing reduced risk relative to the
baseline period, resulting in a median increase of about 4 days and a maximum of up
to 16 days.
Analysis of the number of threshold days for each individual driver indicates that
phosphorus thresholds are met most days of the year and that phosphorus
concentrations do not prevent bloom development except at one site. Phosphorus
management strategies may therefore not be effective in reducing the risk of algal
blooms occurring in slow flowing rivers, an observation confirmed by the fact only 3
sites showed a reduction in risk using an improved phosphorus treatment scenario.
There is more variability in the number of days the other thresholds are met, resulting
in a varying pattern of risk between sites and time periods. After phosphorus
concentration thresholds, river flow thresholds are most frequently met. Sunlight
duration and water temperature thresholds are least often met. The interaction between
flow variability, water temperature and sunlight duration would appear to determine the
variability that emerges by the 2080s.
The role of water temperature and sunlight duration seems to be significant in both
limiting the number of days all thresholds are met and in controlling the timing of
attainment of all thresholds, with both thresholds tending to be exceeded later in the
year than those for river flow and phosphorus concentration. With the lowest number of
threshold days at the greatest number of sites, exposure to sunlight may be the most
important factor in preventing algal blooms.
There is considerable uncertainty in the estimation of future water temperature, which
was derived from air temperature using simple regression methods. This may result in
a variable estimate of bloom risk days that requires further exploration with more
reliable projections of future water temperature. A better way of estimating water
temperature would really help to model future water quality.
These results suggest that management strategies focusing on reducing sunlight and
thermal interactions (both through river shading by trees) may be particularly effective
in reducing the risk of blooms on some rivers in the future. This could be explored
using the spreadsheet model developed for this project. Whilst phytoplankton blooms
tend to be observed in lowland reaches of English rivers, the approach applied here is
independent of this, is equally applicable anywhere, and has potential for use in an
approach for assessing eutrophication in slow flowing rivers. It would also be useful to
identify more sites across England at which residence time thresholds are met in order
to assess potential vulnerability to eutrophication
An empirical investigation of climate and land-use effects on water quantity and quality in two urbanising catchments in the southern United Kingdom
Using historical data of climate, land-use, hydrology and water quality from four catchments located in the south of England, this study identifies the impact of climate and land-use change on selected water quantity and water quality indicators. The study utilises a paired catchment approach, with two catchments that have experienced a high degree of urbanisation over the past five decades and two nearby, hydrologically similar, but undeveloped catchments. Multivariate regression models were used to assess the influence of rainfall and urbanisation on runoff (annual and seasonal), dissolved oxygen levels and temperature. Results indicate: (i) no trend in annual or seasonal rainfall totals, (ii) upward trend in runoff totals in the two urban catchments but not in the rural catchments, (iii) upward trend in dissolved oxygen and temperature in the urban catchments, but not in the rural catchments, and (iv) changes in temperature and dissolved oxygen in the urban catchments are not driven by climatic variables
Qualitative impact assessment of land management interventions on ecosystem services (“QEIA”). Report-3 theme-4: water
This project assessed the impacts of 741 potential land management actions, suitable for agricultural land in England, on the Farming & Countryside Programme’s Environmental Objectives (and therefore Environment Act targets and climate commitments) through 53 relevant environmental and cultural service indicators.
The project used a combination of expert opinion and rapid evidence reviews, which included 1000+ pages of evidence in 10 separate reports with reference to over 2400 published studies, and an Integrated Assessment comprising expert-derived qualitative impact scores.
The project has ensured that ELM schemes are evidence-based, offer good value for money, and contribute to SoS priorities for farming
Hydrodynamics and phosphorus loading in an urbanized river channel influences response to future managed change: insights from advection-dispersion modelling
There is a need to understand what makes certain targeted measures for in-river phosphorus load reduction more effective than others. Therefore, this paper investigates multiple development scenarios in a small lowland polluted river draining an urban area (The Cut, Bracknell, UK), using an advection-dispersion model (ADModel-P). A comparative analysis is presented whereby changes in concentrations and fluxes of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and organic phosphorus (OP) have been attributed to specific transformations (mineralization, sedimentation, resuspension, adsorption-desorption, and algal uptake) and correlated to controlling factors. Under present day conditions the river stretch is a net source of SRP (10.4 % increase in mean concentration) implying a release of previously accumulated material. Scenarios with the greatest impact are those based on managed reduction of phosphorus load in sources (e.g., 20 % increase in afforestation causes an in-river SRP and OP reduction of 1.3 % to 12.6 %) followed by scenarios involving changes in water temperature (e.g., 1 °C decrease leads to in-river SRP reduction around 3.1 %). Measures involving increased river residence time show the lowest effects (e.g., 16 % decrease in velocity results in under 0.02 % in-river SRP and OP reduction). For better understanding downstream persistence of phosphorus pollution and the effectiveness of mitigation measures the research demonstrates the importance of establishing when and where reaches are net adsorbers or desorbers, and whether sedimentation or resuspension is important
The Accuracy of Confidence Intervals for Field Normalised Indicators
This is an accepted manuscript of an article published by Elsevier in Journal of Informetrics on 07/04/2017, available online: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joi.2017.03.004
The accepted version of the publication may differ from the final published version.When comparing the average citation impact of research groups, universities and countries, field normalisation reduces the influence of discipline and time. Confidence intervals for these indicators can help with attempts to infer whether differences between sets of publications are due to chance factors. Although both bootstrapping and formulae have been proposed for these, their accuracy is unknown. In response, this article uses simulated data to systematically compare the accuracy of confidence limits in the simplest possible case, a single field and year. The results suggest that the MNLCS (Mean Normalised Log-transformed Citation Score) confidence interval formula is conservative for large groups but almost always safe, whereas bootstrap MNLCS confidence intervals tend to be accurate but can be unsafe for smaller world or group sample sizes. In contrast, bootstrap MNCS (Mean Normalised Citation Score) confidence intervals can be very unsafe, although their accuracy increases with sample sizes
Is Medical Research Informing Professional Practice More Highly Cited? Evidence from AHFS DI Essentials in Drugs.com
This is an accepted manuscript of an article published by Springer in Scientometrics on 21/02/2017, available online: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-017-2292-3
The accepted version of the publication may differ from the final published version.Citation-based indicators are often used to help evaluate the impact of published medical studies, even though the research has the ultimate goal of improving human wellbeing. One direct way of influencing health outcomes is by guiding physicians and other medical professionals about which drugs to prescribe. A high profile source of this guidance is the AHFS DI Essentials product of the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, which gives systematic information for drug prescribers. AHFS DI Essentials documents, which are also indexed by Drugs.com, include references to academic studies and the referenced work is therefore helping patients by guiding drug prescribing. This article extracts AHFS DI Essentials documents from Drugs.com and assesses whether articles referenced in these information sheets have their value recognised by higher Scopus citation counts. A comparison of mean log-transformed citation counts between articles that are and are not referenced in AHFS DI Essentials shows that AHFS DI Essentials references are more highly cited than average for the publishing journal. This suggests that medical research influencing drug prescribing is more cited than average
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