TRADE CREATION AND TRADE DIVERSION EFFECTS: THE CASE OF THE ASEAN PLUS SIX FREE TRADE AREA

This study examines whether trade agreements promoted under the ASEAN+6 over the period 2007-2017 supported trade creation and/or trade diversion effects within three export product groups, namely, manufactured goods, primary products, and natural resources-based goods. Using a gravity model, we note that primary products offer pure trade creation (greater intra-bloc and extra-bloc trade). Manufactured products experienced trade creation in intra-bloc and extrabloc exports, while natural resources-based goods show trade creation in intraregional exports and trade creation in imports from extra-bloc.Penelitian ini ingin mengetahui apakah perjanjian perdagangan ASEAN Plus Six mampu mendorong adanya trade creation or trade diversion pada tiga kelompok produk ekspor, yaitu produk primer, produk olahan, dan barang-barang yang berbasis sumber daya alam selama periode 2007 - 2017. Penelitian ini menggunakan model gravitasi yang diestimasi dengan Poison Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood. Produk- produk primer menunjukkan adanya trade creation baik dalam ekspor maupun impor dimana nilainya lebih besar di dalam blok perdagangan daripada di luar blok perdagangan. Produk olahan mengalami trade creation secara murni hanya dari sisi ekspor, sedangkan  barang- barang yang berbasis sumber daya alam menunjukkan adanya trade creation pada sisi ekspor, meskipun tidak ada tanda yang menunjukkan adanya pertumbuhan di luar blok perdagangan. Barang- barang yang berbasis sumber daya alam dan produk primer secara drasis lebih terdampak terhadap adanya shock di pasar global dibandingkan dengan produk olahan

Diterminants of Tourism Demand in Indonesia: A Panel Data Analysis

By 2014 Indonesia registered 11.6 million inbound foreign tourists, 135% higher than the year 2000. Since then, government policies to promote tourism flourished. This article investigates the determinants of inbound tourism from the top nine mayor tourist origin countries into Indonesia covering the period of 2000 to 2014. This research employs a dynamic panel dataset to estimate the impact of per capita real income, relative prices, accommodation capacity, distance, and public infrastructure investment on international tourism demand in Indonesia, capturing demand- and supply-side effects. The results show that per capita income of tourists, relative price, and available rooms have a positive effect on tourism expenditure in Indonesia, while distance has a negative effect. Dummy variables capture large negative shocks in tourism arising from two terrorist attacks in 2002 and 2005, as well as from the global financial crisis in 2008. Income plays a positive but low impact on tourism demand compared to other nations. The positive effect of prices suggests an advantage of Indonesia in competitive tourism prices. Nevertheless, low prices also denote low value in tourism services. The substantial impact of accommodation may indicate that significant effects of tourism are allocated in lodging, minimizing the impact on other sectors

Covid-19 dan Dampaknya Terhadap Kinerja Bank BUMN di Indonesia

Covid-19 has increased the risk of financial institutions. As countries struggle to strengthen economic activity and provide various fiscal stimuli to facilitate liquidity in the market, this study questions whether national banks are still in a healthy condition to face uncertainties in the market. This study applies the RGEC (Risk Profile, Good Corporate Governance, Earnings, and Capital) approach to assess the performance of state-owned banks in Indonesia during the new normal period since June 2020 (quarter II and III). Based on the analysis and discussion of this study, it can be concluded that the condition of state-owned banking in Indonesia during the new normal period was still healthy. Bank risk level remains at a safe level. Bank made huge profits and fixed capital is still at a healthy level. Thus, state-owned banks remain competitive and handle risk well. This is supported by the existence of stimulus assistance from the government in the form of the Countercyclical Policy.Cara Mengutip:Ilahiyah, M. E., Padilla, M. A. E., & Palupi, D. (2021). Covid-19 dan Dampaknya Terhadap Kinerja Bank BUMN di Indonesia. Esensi: Jurnal Bisnis dan Manajemen, 11(1), xx-xx. https://doi.org/10.15408/ess.v11i1.19297

Policy Socialization and Business Strategy Direction of Eco-Tourism

This study aims to estimate the losses of tourism-related sectors and businesses to take recovery steps by disseminating policies and strategic directions. This study uses the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) to calculate losses. This study indicates that the average percentage of losses in the tourism sector from January to August 2020 is 68% (9,508 million USD) to 69% (10,328 million USD). Several sectors experienced losses, especially accommodation (2978 to 3235 million USD); food and beverages (1750 to 1900 million USD); and shopping (1530 to 1662 million USD). Business actors need to know the socialization of government policies such as fiscal stimulus, CHSE (Cleanliness Health Safety Sustainability) certification, and market reactivation. The direction of the right strategy is also carried out, such as product innovation, improvement of health protocols, digitization, and certification. How to Cite:Esquivias, M. A., Sugiharti, L., Rohmawati, H., & Jaya, I.M.L.M. (2022). Policy Socialization And Business Strategy Direction Of Eco-Tourism. Etikonomi, 21(1), 193-212. https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v21i1.23068

Evidence-based Examination of the Consequences of Financial Development on Environmental Degradation in the Indian Setting, Using the ARDL Model

The purpose of this study is to investigate India's long-run equilibrium relationship between carbon emissions, financial development, energy consumption, urbanization and trade openness from 1960 to 2020. The analysis of the sources of carbon emissions by taking into account the role that financial growth and trade openness plays and using data from a single country is the most significant contribution that we have made to the existing body of research on Indian studies, using an updated dataset and methodology. According to the findings, there is evidence of long-term relationship between trade openness, financial development, urbanization, energy consumption and carbon emissions. Given that each of the variables has a positive association with the carbon emissions; this indicates that each of the variables contributes to environmental degradation, since they emit a significant amount of CO2 into the atmosphere, in the context of India over the time period of the study that was observed. According to the data presented, the functioning of the financial system ought to incorporate an awareness of its impact on the surrounding environment. The findings of this study could be of tremendous significance for those responsible for formulating policies and making decisions in the area of energy in India, particularly those that contribute to the reduction of carbon emissions while maintaining environmental integrit

The impact of exchange rate volatility on Indonesia's top exports to the five main export markets

This study examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on Indonesia's primary export commodities to the top five export destination countries, namely China, India, Japan, South Korea, and the United States. This study uses a GARCH model to obtain an estimated value of exchange rate volatility, using monthly data covering from 2006 to 2018. The ARDL method helps to measure the effect of exchange rate volatility on exports to destination countries in both the short and the long-term. Aggregate exports are compared employing a linear (ARDL) and a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL). The findings suggest that exchange rate volatility has a significant effect on exports of commodities under code 26 (ores), 38 (chemicals), 40 (rubber), and 47 (pulp paper) to India, Japan, South Korea, and the United States, either in the short or long-run. The exchange rate volatility of exports to China only affects plastics goods (code 39), although many goods experience negative effects due to exchange rate depreciation. In India, exchange rate volatility affects the largest number of export commodities. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) has a strong long-term effect on exports to Asian countries. Impacts due to exchange rates offer both negative effects and positive effects (expected) in exports at commodity and trade partner case-to-case levels. Both aggregate ARDL and NARDL models suggest that Indonesian exports are negatively affected by exchange rate fluctuations

Production Networks Under the ASEAN Plus Six. A Good deal or a Threat?

This study breaks up the gross trade of ASEAN countries into the different components of Value-added trade to analyze the integration of ASEAN into the Global Value Chain (GVC). The study employs a global input-output database using data by the years1997, 2004, and 2012. The research considers the possible effects of expanding ASEAN into an ASEAN Plus Six agreement from the Vertical Specialization point of view. Gross trade is further broken down into nine components of value-added trade which creates a series of indicators of value creation, participation-position in GVC, among others. The study found that ASEAN has made significant gains in enlarging total trade (235%), and thus undergoing a particularly faster growth in production sharing structures. Over the time, ASEAN has assumed a notable function across the GVC as a provider of value-added through parts and components (33%) than as a producer of final goods (30%). Vertical trade accounts for more than 43% of ASEAN gross exports, but it depends on foreign intermediate goods (35%) to produce its exports, most of them are supplied from Asia. ASEAN single production region has gained a little while it has grown with Asian partners and lost market share with NAFTA and Europe. The ASEAN Plus six leads to a broad range of integration and might translate to larger gains than Intra-ASEAN trade. While ASEAN is expanding faster regionally than globally, both in supplies and in demand, the ASEAN internal market might not be large enough to drive growth. Meanwhile the dynamics of ASEAN appear as being part of a strong GVC through Asia

Formation of production networks in ASEAN: Measuring the real value-added and identifying the role of ASEAN countries in the world supply chains

This study addresses the two-fold question of whether the integration-liberalization process of ASEAN is headed towards the creation of a single production base region, and how ASEAN links with other trade blocks. It looks into the degree of intra-ASEAN and extra-ASEAN vertical integration vis-à-vis North America, East Asia, and the European Union through the measurement of value-added creation-absorption in global value chains (GVC) and by locating ASEAN within vertical structures. The study employs an international input-output database and breaks up gross exports into different components of value-added using data from 1997, 2004, and 2012. ASEAN has made significant gains in integrating with East Asia. However, ASEAN as a single production region has gained little, and even lost share in value-added trade with NAFTA and Europe. The truth is that ASEAN has a stronger role across the GVC as a supplier of intermediate goods (33%) than as a supplier of final goods (30%). Vertical structures represent more than 43% of ASEAN gross exports, but it still depends on foreign parts and components (35%) to produce its exports. It may be argued that ASEAN + 6, which entails a wider scope of integration, might offer larger benefits to the ASEAN project

Propagation of Economic Shocks from the United States, China, the European Union, and Japan to Selected Asian Economies: Does the Global Value Chain Matters?

A panel vector autoregression (VAR) model is employed to estimate whether growth shocks from the United States (US), China, Japan, and the European Union (EU) can be transferred to selected Asian countries. We examine 1) the effect of shocks through five channels: international trade, monetary policy, finance, global uncertainty, and oil prices; 2) whether a country’s deeper integration with the global value chain (GVC) enhances or decreases the effect of growth shocks from major economies more intensively than trade openness. We found evidence of the shock transfer from major economies to Asia through the five channels. The impact differs across countries depending on their participation in GVC; for example, the impact is high in Indonesia and low in South Korea. Moreover, Asian countries are more exposed to trade shocks through China’s trade channel than other major economies. Zooming in on the channels’ impacts, global uncertainty affects countries’ growth (e.g., Indonesia) more significantly than other channels (i.e., GVC); and Asian countries respond positively to oil prices in the short run but negatively in the long run

THE IMPACT OF VIOLENT CRIME ON TOURIST ARRIVALS IN MALAYSIA

The tourism industry plays an important role in boosting economic growth, providing job opportunities, and reducing the poverty rates in many countries. For this reason, the factors influencing tourism should be investigated, to ensure continued growth within the industry. Few studies had examined the effect of violent crime on tourist arrivals and price competitiveness in Malaysia. An increasing criminal activity and a rise in prices may discourage tourism arrivals. This paper applies an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to estimate Malaysia's determinants of tourism arrivals, on the period from 1986 to 2016. Tourism demand is modeled as a function of economic growth, tourism accommodation, prices (proxied by exchange rates and inflation), unemployment, and the crime index to proxy criminal activity in Malaysia. The results showed that inflation can reduce the number of tourists in the long run and in the short run. Similarly, the results also show that a higher exchange rate and violent crime index can reduce the number of tourists visiting Malaysia in the short run. Economic growth can attract more tourists to Malaysia in the long run.These findings are important for the formulation and implementation of policies. The Malaysian government should combat violent crime in the first place to prevent any reduction in tourist arrivals. Increasing government expenditure on national security could lead to a reduction in the violent crime index, thus increasing the number of tourist arrivals in Malaysia