34 research outputs found

    Alaska Volcano Observatory Alert and Forecasting Timeliness: 1989–2017

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    The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) monitors volcanoes in Alaska and issues notifications and warnings of volcanic unrest and eruption. We evaluate the timeliness and accuracy of eruption forecasts for 53 eruptions at 20 volcanoes, beginning with Mount Redoubt's 1989–1990 eruption. Successful forecasts are defined as those where AVO issued a formal warning before eruption onset. These warning notifications are now part of AVO's Aviation Color Code and Volcanic Alert Level. This analysis considers only the start of an eruption, although many eruptions have multiple phases of activity. For the 21 eruptions at volcanoes with functioning local seismic networks, AVO has high forecasting success at volcanoes with: >15 years repose intervals and magmatic eruptions (4 out of 4, 100%); or larger eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 3 or greater; 6 out of 10, 60%). Therefore, AVO successfully forecast all four monitored, longer-repose period, VEI 3+ eruptions: Redoubt 1989–1990 and 2009, Spurr 1992, and Augustine 2005–2006. For volcanoes with functioning seismic monitoring networks, success rates are lower for: volcanoes with shorter repose periods (3 out of 16, 19%); more mafic compositions (3 out of 18, 17%); or smaller eruption size (VEI 2 or less, 1 out of 11, 9%). These eruptions (Okmok, Pavlof, Veniaminof, and Shishaldin) often lack detectable precursory signals. For 32 eruptions at volcanoes without functioning local seismic networks, the forecasting success rate is much lower (2, 6%; Kasatochi 2008 and Shishaldin 2014). For remote volcanoes where the main hazard is to aviation, rapid detection is a goal in the absence of in situ monitoring. Eruption detection has improved in recent years, shown by a decrease in the time between eruption onset and notification. Even limited seismic monitoring can detect precursory activity at volcanoes with certain characteristics (intermediate composition, longer repose times, larger eruptions), but difficulty persists in detecting subtle precursory activity at frequently active volcanoes with more mafic compositions. This suggests that volcano-specific characteristics should be considered when designing monitoring programs and evaluating forecasting success. More proximally-located sensors and data types are likely needed to forecast eruptive activity at frequently-active, more mafic volcanoes that generally produce smaller eruptions

    Hemoglobin and cerebral hypoxic vasodilation in humans:Evidence for nitric oxide-dependent and S-nitrosothiol mediated signal transduction

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    Cerebral hypoxic vasodilation is poorly understood in humans, which undermines the development of therapeutics to optimize cerebral oxygen delivery. Across four investigations (total n = 195) we investigated the role of nitric oxide (NO) and hemoglobin-based S-nitrosothiol (RSNO) and nitrite ((Formula presented.)) signaling in the regulation of cerebral hypoxic vasodilation. We conducted hemodilution (n = 10) and NO synthase inhibition experiments (n = 11) as well as hemoglobin oxygen desaturation protocols, wherein we measured cerebral blood flow (CBF), intra-arterial blood pressure, and in subsets of participants trans-cerebral release/uptake of RSNO and (Formula presented.). Higher CBF during hypoxia was associated with greater trans-cerebral RSNO release but not (Formula presented.), while NO synthase inhibition reduced cerebral hypoxic vasodilation. Hemodilution increased the magnitude of cerebral hypoxic vasodilation following acute hemodilution, while in 134 participants tested under normal conditions, hypoxic cerebral vasodilation was inversely correlated to arterial hemoglobin concentration. These studies were replicated in a sample of polycythemic high-altitude native Andeans suffering from excessive erythrocytosis (n = 40), where cerebral hypoxic vasodilation was inversely correlated to hemoglobin concentration, and improved with hemodilution (n = 6). Collectively, our data indicate that cerebral hypoxic vasodilation is partially NO-dependent, associated with trans-cerebral RSNO release, and place hemoglobin-based NO signaling as a central mechanism of cerebral hypoxic vasodilation in humans.</p

    Short-Term Forecasting and Detection of Explosions During the 2016–2017 Eruption of Bogoslof Volcano, Alaska

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    We describe a multidisciplinary approach to forecast, rapidly detect, and characterize explosive events during the 2016–2017 eruption of Bogoslof volcano, a back-arc shallow submarine volcano in Alaska’s Aleutian arc. The eruptive sequence began in December 2016 and included about 70 discrete explosive events. Because the volcano has no local monitoring stations, we used distant stations on the nearest volcanoes, Okmok (54 km) and Makushin (72 km), combined with regional infrasound sensors and lightning detection from the Worldwide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN). Pre-eruptive seismicity was detected for 12 events during the first half of the eruption; for all other events co-eruptive signals allowed for detection only. Monitoring of activity used a combination of scheduled checks combined with automated alarms. Alarms triggered on real-time data included real-time seismic amplitude measurement (RSAM); infrasound from several arrays, the closest being on Okmok; and lightning strokes detected from WWLLN within a 20-km radius of the volcano. During periods of unrest, a multidisciplinary response team of four people fulfilled specific roles to evaluate geophysical and remote-sensing data, run event-specific ash-cloud dispersion models, ensure interagency coordination, and develop and distribute of formalized warning products. Using this approach, for events that produced ash clouds ≥7.5 km above sea level, Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) called emergency response partners 15 min, and issued written notices 30 min, after event onset (mean times). Factors that affect timeliness of written warnings include event size and number of data streams available; bigger events and more data both decrease uncertainty and allow for faster warnings. In remote areas where airborne ash is the primary hazard, the approach used at Bogoslof is an effective strategy for hazard mitigation

    Food Insecurity Prevalence Across Diverse Sites During COVID-19: A Year of Comprehensive Data

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    Key Findings NFACT includes 18 study sites in 15 states as well as a national poll, collectively representing a sample size of more than 26,000 people. Some sites have implemented multiple survey rounds, here we report results from 22 separate surveys conducted during the year since the COVID-19 pandemic began in March 2020. 18 out of 19 surveys in 14 sites with data for before and since the pandemic began found an increase in food insecurity since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic as compared to before the pandemic. In nearly all surveys (18/19) that measured food insecurity both before and during the pandemic, more Black, Indigenous, and People of Color (BIPOC) were classified as food insecure during the pandemic as compared to before it began. Prevalence of food insecurity for BIPOC respondents was higher than the overall population in the majority of surveys (19/20) sampling a general population. In almost all surveys (21/22), the prevalence of food insecurity for households with children was higher than the overall prevalence of food insecurity. Food insecurity prevalence was higher for households experiencing a negative job impact during the pandemic (i.e. job loss, furlough, reduction in hours) in nearly all surveys and study sites (21/22). Food insecurity prevalence in most sites was significantly higher before COVID-19 than estimates from that time period. Reporting a percent change between pre and during COVID-19 prevalence may provide additional information about the rate of change in food insecurity since the start of the pandemic, which absolute prevalence of food insecurity may not capture. Results highlight consistent trends in food insecurity outcomes since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, across diverse study sites, methodological approaches, and time

    Relationships of Cetacea (Artiodactyla) Among Mammals: Increased Taxon Sampling Alters Interpretations of Key Fossils and Character Evolution

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    BACKGROUND: Integration of diverse data (molecules, fossils) provides the most robust test of the phylogeny of cetaceans. Positioning key fossils is critical for reconstructing the character change from life on land to life in the water. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We reexamine relationships of critical extinct taxa that impact our understanding of the origin of Cetacea. We do this in the context of the largest total evidence analysis of morphological and molecular information for Artiodactyla (661 phenotypic characters and 46,587 molecular characters, coded for 33 extant and 48 extinct taxa). We score morphological data for Carnivoramorpha, Creodonta, Lipotyphla, and the raoellid artiodactylan Indohyus and concentrate on determining which fossils are positioned along stem lineages to major artiodactylan crown clades. Shortest trees place Cetacea within Artiodactyla and close to Indohyus, with Mesonychia outside of Artiodactyla. The relationships of Mesonychia and Indohyus are highly unstable, however--in trees only two steps longer than minimum length, Mesonychia falls inside Artiodactyla and displaces Indohyus from a position close to Cetacea. Trees based only on data that fossilize continue to show the classic arrangement of relationships within Artiodactyla with Cetacea grouping outside the clade, a signal incongruent with the molecular data that dominate the total evidence result. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Integration of new fossil material of Indohyus impacts placement of another extinct clade Mesonychia, pushing it much farther down the tree. The phylogenetic position of Indohyus suggests that the cetacean stem lineage included herbivorous and carnivorous aquatic species. We also conclude that extinct members of Cetancodonta (whales+hippopotamids) shared a derived ability to hear underwater sounds, even though several cetancodontans lack a pachyostotic auditory bulla. We revise the taxonomy of living and extinct artiodactylans and propose explicit node and stem-based definitions for the ingroup

    Multiple novel prostate cancer susceptibility signals identified by fine-mapping of known risk loci among Europeans

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    Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in 25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16 regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP, while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region. Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa, an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent signals within the same regio

    Reaction rim growth on olivine in silicic melts: Implications for magma mixing

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    Finely crystalline amphibole or pyroxene rims that form during reaction between silicic host melt and cognate olivine xenocrysts, newly introduced during magma mixing events, can provide information about the timing between mixing and volcanic eruptions. We investigated rim growth experimentally by placing forsteritic olivine in rhyolitic and rhyodacitic melts for times between 25 and 622 h at 50 and 150 MPa, H2O-saturated, at the Ni-NiO buffer. Rims of orthopyroxene microlites formed from high-silica rhyolite and rhyodacite melts at 885 °C and 50 MPa, and in the rhyolite at 150 MPa and 885 °C. Rims of amphibole with lesser orthopyroxene formed in the rhyolite at 150 MPa and 800 °C and in the rhyodacite at 150 MPa and 885 °C. Irregular, convolute olivine edges and mass balance between olivine, melt, and rim phases show that olivine partly dissolved at all conditions. Iron-rich zones at the exteriors of olivines, which increased in width parabolically with time, show that Fe-Mg interdiffusion occurring in olivines was not outpaced by olivine dissolution. Linear increases of the square of rim widths with time suggest that diffusion within the melt is the rate-controlling process for olivine dissolution and rim growth. Rims grew one-half to one order-of-magnitude faster when melt water contents were doubled, unless conditions were far above the liquidus. Rim growth rate in rhyolite increases from 0.055 ± 0.01 μm2/h at 885 °C and 50 MPa to 0.64 ± 0.13 μm2/h at 800 °C and 150 MPa. Melt composition has a lesser effect on rim growth rates, with growth rate increasing as melt SiO2 content decreases. Pyroxene rims on olivines in andesite erupted from Arenal volcano (Costa Rica) grew at a rate of 3.0 ± 0.2 μm2/h over an eleven-year period. This rate is faster than those of the experiments due to lower melt viscosity and higher temperatures, and suggests that a magma mixing event preceded the start of the eruption by days
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